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US stock futures slipped on Friday as oil prices rose, with investors weighing the possibility of direct US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict after President Trump set a timeline for a decision.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) and on the S&P 500 were both down 0.2%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell roughly 0.3%. Markets were closed Thursday in observance of Juneteenth, offering investors a brief pause as global headlines grew more volatile.
Trump has introduced a self-imposed two-week time limit on deciding whether to enter the Middle East conflict, via a message relayed on Thursday by the White House press secretary. The move added another layer of uncertainty to an already cautious market, even as it signaled a cooldown from recent rhetoric that included a call for Tehran’s evacuation.
Eyes are now on European efforts to get negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program back on track, to help avert further escalation in a conflict now entering its second week. Foreign ministers from France, the UK and Germany are holding talks in Geneva with their Iranian counterpart.
Oil prices turned higher as the geopolitical unease continued. Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rose over 1%, coming back from a slide earlier in the day. Traders are pricing in supply disruption risk should Iran block the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck for one-fifth of the world’s oil trade.
Stocks have struggled since the attacks began Friday past, putting the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Dow (^DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) on track to end the week with losses.
Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Powell reiterated that policymakers are not rushing to ease, saying rate decisions will remain “data-dependent.” A majority of traders, according to CME Group, expect a rate cut by September’s meeting.
Read more: The latest on Trump’s tariffs
Investors will turn their attention to fresh economic data Friday morning, including the Philadelphia Fed’s June manufacturing index and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators for May.
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$6.5 trillion ‘triple witching’ spells more volatility for stocks
Bloomberg reports:
Investors are bracing for $6.5 trillion of notional US options expiring on Friday, in a move that could free stocks to swing more wildly than the subdued changes seen in recent weeks.
Every quarter, a cluster of different exchange-traded derivatives contracts all terminate on the same day, leading to what is sometimes dubbed a “triple witching” event by market watchers. The event isn’t expected to add additional volatility on Friday itself, but could open a path to more sudden stock market moves next week.
Daily gyrations in US stocks have been relatively restrained since early May, a situation helped by the pinning effect of a swath of bearish options trades placed earlier in the year — when the chances of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) making a recovery to near-record highs seemed remote, according to Rocky Fishman, the founder of research firm Asym 500 LLC. “Pinning” refers to the tendency of a stock price to close near the strike of heavily-traded options as the expiration date nears. …
It was different during early April’s tariff turmoil, when many intermediaries found themselves having to dump stock into falling markets, and then buy it back as markets rose, exacerbating swings, according to Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors.
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Trending tickers: Tesla, Wolfspeed and GMS
Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading:
Tesla (TSLA) stock rose over 1% before the bell following reports that the EV maker had signed a $557 million energy storage station deal. This deal was announced two days before Elon Musk’s expected launch of its robotaxi.
Semiconductor maker, Wolfspeed’s (WOLF) stock fell 4% premarket after reports emerged on Thursday it would be taken over by creditors inculding Apollo Global Management. The chipmaker has been struggling recently and the new proposal would put them into bankruptcy.
GMS (GMS) stock was up 23% after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Home Depot (HD) the home-improvement giant, has made an offer to acquire GMS, a building-products distribution company, citing people familiar with the matter. The WSJ did not specify a price.
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
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China warning on toys like Labubu sends Pop Mart stock sliding
Shares of Pop Mart (9992.HK, PMRTY) slid in Hong Kong after a call for stricter regulation of blind-box and trading cards in Chinese state media.
That fueled concerns about prospects for the maker of furry Labubu elf dolls, whose explosive popularity has helped lift Beijing-based Pop Mart’s market cap to around $40 billion — twice that of Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT) combined.
Bloomberg reports:
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Oil prices on track for third week of consecutive gains
Oil prices look set to end this week with gains for the third consecutive week in a row. Extreme tensions in the Middle East have put consistent upwards pressure on the commodity, with the recent eruption into outright violence leaving investors looking at supply chains and production facilities with concern.
Reuters reports: `
