Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures soar as Trump triumphs

Updated Wed, Nov 6, 2024, 3:53 AM 1 min read

Bitcoin gets a boost

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is getting a boost off Trump’s win as investors prepare for a possibly more digital asset-friendly government, notably at the SEC.

“With Trump leading the US Presidential race and GOP likely to flip the Senate, we believe, the regulatory headwind for crypto has turned into a tailwind and the market is nowhere close to factoring in this shift,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note.

“We think the market’s first reaction could be to ‘sell the news’, but we suggest investors in stocks with exposure to Bitcoin use the marginal dip here as an enhanced buying opportunity to capture the upside over next 12 months — $200K Bitcoin remains our high-conviction 2025 year-end call.”

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong weighed in on X:
What’s next on 2 key economic issues now that Donald Trump is officially the president-elect

American voters gave Donald Trump a commanding victory, powered in large part by an intense voter focus on inflation that has been evident for years.

But Trump’s key campaign promise of new tariffs and a “mass deportation” of undocumented immigrants could put new upward pressure on prices, the very issue that appears to have powered him to a win.

A note from Capital Economics late Tuesday night crystallized some of the macroeconomic worries. The authors wrote that they expected Trump to push forward on his proposed immigration curbs and tariffs. They said that as a result, “We are minded to reduce our GDP growth forecast … by roughly 1% and add 1% to our inflation forecast over the same period.”

Read here for more about what Trump could mean on the key economic issue of price pressures, as well as taxes.
Futures chug higher as Trump wins election

US stock futures surged as investors digested Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election over Kamala Harris.

A recent call in the state of Wisconsin in favor of Trump by the Associated Press on Wednesday morning confirmed the victory.

After a steady rally in stock futures overnight as Harris’ path to victory narrowed, futures tied to the three major averages built on earlier jumps on the news.

As of 6:00 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each soared around 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up around 2.9% on the heels of a winning day for stocks.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 index (RTY=F) were up more than 6.5%.
Yields get a boost as investors assess likely Trump win

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is pushing higher as investors bet on a faster pace of inflation under new Trump tariffs, and a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed.

“Overall though we think that a Trump win means higher inflation in the near-term versus the status quo with Harris, but slower growth (potentially shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off of GDP in 2025 and 2026). For FOMC policy, we think the Fed will continue to ease this year, but likely take a pause in the first half of 2025 as it waits to get a better sense of the impact of the new administration’s policies on inflation and growth,” TD’s head of global strategy Rich Kelley said.

The 10-year yield was up 14 basis points to around 4.26% early on Wednesday.

For now, markets are taking this move in yields in stride. But keep in mind this is a market that loves prospects of more rate cuts. If that thesis gets pushed aside under Trump as tariffs spur new inflation, markets could recalibrate to the downside.
Stocks in China slide, but Europe gauges rally

Global stock markets had a mixed reaction to the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency, as the Republican closed in on a second term in the White House.

In China, stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, with Shanghai’s blue-chip CSI 300 (000300.SS) closing 0.5% lower, and Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng (^HSI) down 2.3%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises (^HSCE) Index fell 2.6%.

But Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 (^N225) climbed 2.6%, while the broader Topix (0P00006NXB.T) stock index gained 1.9%. The rally came as the Japanese yen (JPY=X) sank to its lowest since July and the dollar (USD=X) strengthened.

Europe’s major stock gauges jumped in early trade. London’s FTSE 100 (^FTSE) moved up 1.4%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) benchmark rose 1.6% as Frankfurt’s DAX (^GDAXI) and Paris’s CAC 40 (^FCHI) gained.
Tesla shares pop as potential Trump win in focus

Tesla (TSLA) shares are surging 13% in premarket trading as Donald Trump looks to be on the verge of winning the presidency again.

A win could put Tesla CEO Elon Musk in pole position to shape the EV maker’s future, given his strong backing of Trump — or at least, that is how Wall Street sees it early on.

Says Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives in a note:

For more on Tesla’s roadmap under a potential Trump presidency, here is our chat on the topic on a recent episode of my Opening Bid podcast.
Trump takes the stage

Donald Trump took the stage in Palm Beach, Fl. in the early morning hours on Wednesday as he neared closer to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidential election.

“This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before,” he told the crowd in what sounded like a victory speech. “[This is] forever the day the American people regained control of their country.”

The Associated Press has not officially called the election. So far, Trump has secured 267 votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 224.
Stock futures soar as Trump nears victory

US stock futures soared as the results of the US presidential election all but confirmed a Donald Trump victory over Kamala Harris.

The former president secured North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, three critical swing states, according to the Associated Press (AP). Results from Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan remain unclear.

Per the AP, Trump is just 3 electoral college votes short of clinching the win.

As of 2:30 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each jumped around 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up over 2.0%.
Republicans win control of the Senate

Republicans have won control of the Senate, the Associated Press projected early Wednesday.

The GOP flipped a Democratic-held seat in West Virginia, as Republican Jim Justice won the open seat. In Ohio, meanwhile, Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Democrats lost a key member of their coalition in the upper chamber (as my colleague Ben Werschkul detailed earlier in the blog).

Seven seats hang in the balance, with Republicans looking for more gains. They are eyeing a pickup in Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Races in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona remain too close to call. Democrats currently hold all those seats.

Head over to the Yahoo News live blog for more election insights and updates.
Small caps rise as Trump odds rise

As US stock futures climbed late Tuesday, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RTY=F) were the star performer, rising as much as 3% to outpace their larger peers as investors bet on the likelihood that Donald Trump will win the presidential election.

Companies within the index, which include regional banks and smaller domestic players, are expected to benefit from anticipated policies out of the Trump administration like lower taxes and cutting regulations.

Tariffs that a Trump administration would also be expected to enact pushed the dollar higher overnight Tuesday, a benefit for small-cap companies that tend to be more levered to the domestic economy compared to more internationally oriented large-cap stocks.
Sen. Sherrod Brown loses seat, shaking up bank regulation outlook

GOP challenger Bernie Moreno has defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, according to the Associated Press.

It’s a victory that almost surely means Republicans will take control of the Senate in 2025, but one that also has consequences for the crucial Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee.

That committee, which Brown currently leads, has been the scene of closely watched hearings in recent years, with top CEOs like JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) Jamie Dimon and Bank of America’s (BAC) Brian Moynihan forced to answer questions from lawmakers on a range of topics.

Those hearings will surely continue in 2025 but now likely with a friendly lawmaker kicking off the questioning.

The current GOP ranking member on that committee is Sen. Tim Scott. The South Carolinian has tended to be much friendlier to bank concerns, especially around banking regulations.

It’s a handover that could have a keen impact on policy, especially if Donald Trump ends up winning back the White House. One top concern over the last year has been the proposed Basel III endgame requirements that would increase the reserve requirements on banks.

Scott has often criticized the proposal, including leading a call on the Biden administration to withdraw it entirely.
Bitcoin reaches all-time highs

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices jumped to all-time highs late Tuesday as bets on Donald Trump accelerated in prediction markets.

The former president has captured 198 electoral college votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 112, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.

Bitcoin prices soared over 8% to trade around $74,200 a token — leaping past its previous record of around $73,750 a coin on March 14.

Other crypto-adjacent names moved in tandem with bitcoin. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) moved over 4% higher in after-hours trading while Coinbase (COIN) shares rose over 3%.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Ripple (XRP-USD) also jumped on the developments, rising 30% and 5%, respectively.
Currency traders are making a clear election bet

Financial markets might be sniffing out a presidential win.

One of the first big moves in markets on election night was a jump in the value of the US dollar (DX=F), which began strengthening around 7:45 p.m. ET.

That occurred as the New York Times’ prediction needle began to tilt slightly in Donald Trump’s direction, based on rising odds of Trump winning the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina. Other forecasts suggest a similar Trump edge.

Here’s the logic for a stronger dollar: Trump wants to impose new tariffs on more than $3 trillion worth of imports, which would push up prices and make inflation higher than it would otherwise be.

Higher inflation generally means higher interest rates, and higher rates would draw more global investments to US securities because of the higher return. More demand for US assets boosts demand for the dollar, making it more valuable relative to other currencies.

Still, this is an early move and does not mean Trump is destined for victory, though Harris is now unlikely to win in a landslide.

Key swing states, including the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in addition to North Carolina and Georgia, had not yet been called as of 10:25 p.m. ET.
Trump trade rallies, futures rip higher

The Trump trade is rallying, with the US dollar (DX=F), bitcoin (BTC-USD), and equity futures all pushing higher as Trump secured 178 electoral college votes compared to Harris’s 99, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.

Decision Desk HQ, a private company that projects election results, projected Trump to also win North Carolina, a key swing state.

Bitcoin prices extended gains by over 7% to trade above $72,800, while the US dollar rose to its highest level since July. Against other currencies like the Japanese yen and the Mexican peso, the US dollar is up over 1%.

Near 9:40 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose about 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also jumped over 1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 1.2%.
Political betting markets show Trump odds on the rise

Political betting markets made a limited move toward Donald Trump early in what is expected to be a long election night.

As of 9:15 p.m. ET, the odds on Kalshi.com, a political prediction market open to US citizens, stood at 68% in Trump’s favor, projecting he would win about 2 out of 3 hypothetical contests.

The odds were similar on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, sitting at 72.4% at 9:15 p.m. ET.

It was a noticeable — but far from definite — jump on both sites from the odds earlier in the night before the polls closed when both markets showed Trump’s odd about 10 percentage points lower.

The surge in these markets was most evident a bit after 7:30 p.m. ET. Gains for Trump noticeably leveled off and largely held steady throughout the 8 p.m. hour.

Both sites are continuing to accept bets throughout the night, with Kalshi touting that their main market now has over $280 million at stake.
7 ‘election trades’ Citi is watching

Citi analysts detailed “election trades to track,” and YF’s Rick Newman highlighted seven of them: solar energy, fossil fuels, deregulation, tariffs, inflation, antitrust, and housing.

A reminder that while stocks don’t care who the president is, and mostly like certainty, the election results will have implications across industries. Read more here.
Tesla stock rises 3% with all eyes on election results

Tesla (TSLA) stock rose 3% in after-hours trading as election results continued to pour in Tuesday night.

More results are expected to be announced in the coming hours.

Tech billionaire Musk, who serves as the CEO of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX and also owns social media platform X (formerly Twitter), has been outspoken about his support of Trump ahead of the election.

Trump has even said he would consider a Cabinet position for Musk but that the businessman likely would not be able to serve “with all the things he’s got going on.”

Intelligent Alpha CEO and founder Doug Clinton told Yahoo Finance’s Market Domination on Tuesday that “it will be a very interesting night for Elon Musk.”

“He’s obviously made a really big bet on the election going one direction,” said Clinton, who is also managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. “I think if it goes against him — if Kamala Harris is elected president — I think it probably is a negative for him.”

It’s possible Tesla could still benefit from a Harris presidency, given she could provide further tax incentives for electric vehicles as part of a continuation of Biden’s green energy push.

As a result, if Trump loses, Musk could likely “find some way to try to mend fences,” Clinton said.

“Elon probably has done more for bringing sustainable energy into the markets, kind of into the mass markets, really in the US and globally than maybe anybody else in the world,” he said.

Tesla shares are up about 1% since the start of the year.
5 things financial observers should watch Tuesday night that aren’t Trump vs. Harris

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could come down to coin-flip odds and may not be known for hours (if not days).

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t a lot of results that could sway markets. Everything from which party will lead key congressional committees to the sway that certain industries like cryptocurrencies will have in Washington, D.C., are also on the ballot.

Curious what races Jamie Dimon and crypto executives will be watching most closely? Read on here.
Eyes on bond yields Wednesday morning

A lot of folks on the Street I have chatted up this week are bracing for a big move in markets Wednesday morning, as the belief is that the winner of the election will be known later on tonight. Moreover, either winner would be seen as a surprise for markets (weird how these things are viewed by investors). Take that with a grain of salt, as such groupthink could mean we don’t get a big move in markets on Wednesday.

Amid the action, I would keep a close eye on bond yields, as markets could very well take their direction from them, based on my conversations. It’s a point the Goldman Sachs team made today in a note making the rounds this evening:

“The upcoming US elections could drive further upward pressure on global bond yields and indigestion for equities,” said Goldman Sachs strategist Andrea Ferrario.

Ferrario added, “Rising bond yields might eventually become a speed limit for equities if real yields start to increase (vs. real GDP growth expectations) or if increases in bond yields are too rapid.”
Futures higher, crypto surges

Futures moved firmly into green figures on Tuesday evening as early results from the US presidential election rolled in while cryptocurrencies surged and the US dollar also gained.

Near 8 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved roughly 0.5% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 0.7%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) was also up as much as 4.5% to trade north of $71,000. The dollar was also stronger against most major currency pairs, including the yen and euro.

So far, Trump has won Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, and Indiana, while Harris has claimed Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Massachusetts, according to the Associated Press.