Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as oil prices rise on Iran-US tensions

Stocks retreated on Thursday as the threat of a potential military strike on Iran lifted oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) declined 0.6% while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC,) retreated 0.4%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4%.

Oil prices rose 2% to retest their highest levels since last summer, as traders monitor developments between Washington and Tehran amid nuclear talks. President Trump said he will decide on whether to strike Iran within the next 10 days.

Airline stocks tumbled amid the threat of higher fuel costs with Delta (DAL), United (UAL) and American (AAL) all down more than 5%.

Healthcare was this bull market’s red-headed stepchild until the fourth quarter of 2025. But the sector perked up late last year, and ETF flows began to reverse years of selling.

This year, XLV (XLV) has been printing higher lows into a flat ceiling, lining up with the August 2024 high — a classic breakout setup from a clear cup and handle chart formation.

A decisive break above $160 opens a measured-move target near $190 (about 20% from the current price).

Lose $150 and the pattern breaks, with a potential return to the cup’s bottom at $130.

Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports:

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Deere (DE) is up over 13% today — its biggest one-day jump since the March 2020 pandemic rebound — blasting to an intraday record and pulling the agriculture complex greener with it.

That pandemic rally would see DE up 12 straight months for a 270% gain, which puts its current five-month streak of over 50% in context. And with 6.5 trading days left in February, the farm equipment manufacturer is already up 27%, having its best month since October 1974 (up 45% that month).

A huge beat and a raise for the first quarter is driving the surge. Deere lifted full-year profit guidance, feeding the “profit trough is near” narrative. CEO John May said the company was “encouraged by the ongoing recovery in demand within both the construction and small agriculture segments,” and reiterated that 2026 looks like the bottom of the cycle.

Needless to say, traders are front-running the cyclical recovery with gusto.

One caveat: DE is looking parabolic and needs to hold the recent lows around $590 to $600 to avoid “aping” January’s silver trade.

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since September 2022 in the week ended Feb. 13, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

Thirty-year loans averaged 6.01% last week, down from the previous week’s reading of 6.09% and a pullback from an average of 6.85% a year ago.

The news comes as affordability continues to dominate US consumers’ attention, and inflation has remained sticky above the Fed’s 2% target. As of Thursday, traders were pricing in a 94% chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting.

The drop in mortgage rates also follows data earlier in the week showing mortgage applications grew by 2.8% in the week ended Feb. 13, compared with the previous week’s decline of 0.3%.

Data on November housing starts showed a 3.9% month-on-month increase, below economists’ estimates of 4.9% but above the previous month’s 4.6% decline.

The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, said he believes the Federal Reserve is “pretty close” to neutral at the current 3.5% to 3.75% target range — leaving little wiggle room to further rate cuts. Traders were pricing in a 94% chance that Fed leaves rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

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The Financial Times reports:

The fund, which trades under the ticker OBDC, also announced on Wednesday that it would sell $1.4 billion worth of holdings to institutional investors, creating the liquidity for investors to get their capital back.

OBDC shares were down about 2% on Thursday.

Recent concerns about private credit have taken many forms, with the most potent being the exposure that investors in these vehicles might have to investments in software companies — a favorite of the alternative investment space — that may be worth less as a result of AI.

Less relevant to that discussion has been increased access to these vehicles, or those with similar characteristics. Say, for instance, ARK Invest’s Venture Fund, which gives retail investors access to private companies, but does not offer the liquidity that many retail investors may assume comes along with this (or any) investment.

Now, these fund sponsors, of course, spend countless hours making sure they are in compliance with SEC rules about letting prospective investors know what they can and cannot expect. And that investors know the terms of a certain fund are subject to change.

But the so-called democratization of finance has taken many forms. The latest and greatest is actually not these “retail private vehicles,” but prediction markets that sit alongside your online brokerage account which turn stock trading apps into sports betting venues.

The consistent blurring of all these lines, however, can often end up in the same place — retail investors not fully understanding what they’re buying or why things changed.

If you’re a professional investor, Jeremy Irons said it best in Margin Call: “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.”

If you’re a retail investor, you’re learning that the same applies to you, too.

More than an hour into the trading day, the major indexes (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) are slightly lower — but the real story is the gap between the quiet tape and pricier protection.

As of around 11 a.m. ET, the S&P 500’s intraday range (true range) is only 0.56% so far, the lowest in three weeks, even as the Cboe Volatility Index (^VIX) has trended higher since the start of the year and is hovering near 20.

As Steve Sosnick over at Interactive Brokers is keen to point out, “[The] VIX is not a fear gauge. It just plays one on TV.” It’s more a read on hedging demand for 30-day S&P options — not the 0DTE crowd.

Contrast that with the Cboe 1-Day Volatility Index (^VIX1D). It spiked above 20 during last week’s AI scare, but it’s back to a 12-handle today — in line with how the S&P is actually trading.

If the intraday range stays pinned near 0.5% while the 30-day VIX holds around 20, the market is paying up for protection without getting the movement. But if the trading range expands, that hedge bid suddenly makes sense.

The US trade deficit rose sharply in December, climbing by more than 30% to $70.3 billion and offering another reading on the impact of the Trump administration’s constantly evolving tariff-based trade policy.

Yahoo Finance’s Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul reports:

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The US stock market fell in the minutes after the opening bell on Thursday as US-Iran tensions kept oil prices top of mind, while investors digested earnings from Walmart (WMT) and a split in the Federal Reserve over the path for interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down , losing roughly 0.5% each, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed 0.3% following gains across the major indexes in the previous session.

As investor attention looked toward the Middle East, oil prices continued to climb, extending their biggest daily jump since October amid simmering tensions between the US and Iran over potential military action. Brent (BZ=F) crude, the international pricing benchmark, climbed to above $71 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) climbed above $66 following an Axios report that the Trump administration is leaning toward conflict.

Walmart (WMT) posted a modest quarterly beat before the bell and advanced roughly 2% to start the session. Newmont Corporation (NEM), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), and Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) will all report after the close.

Oil prices climbed again on Thursday morning as traders priced in shocks from a potential armed conflict between the US and Iran, adding to large gains in Wednesday trading and the overnight session.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) both rose around 2% to trade above $71.60 and $66.20, respectively. The price action brings monthly gains on both energy products to more than 11%.

The oil market has been closely watching developments in Iran, with recent fuel added by the Trump administration’s decision to send a second aircraft carrier to the region. The move adds to what has now become the largest air power armament in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, according to The Wall Street Journal.

While Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that talks between Tehran and Washington had reached a potential framework for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, the X account for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spent Tuesday posting incendiary comments about the deal.

While Iran sits on the third largest proved crude oil reserves in the world and ranks in the top 10 of producers globally, oil markets pay most attention to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint that sees roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum products per day cross through its waters.

On Monday, the Iranian government said it was partially closing the strait to conduct military exercises — notable since it has before conducted military drills without issuing a formal closure notice.

Initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ended Feb. 14, the largest decline since November, according to data from the Department of Labor.

The reading is significantly below economists’ expectations of 225,000 initial claims, according to Bloomberg’s consensus estimates.

Continuing claims, which track the number of people continuing to receive benefits, rose by 17,000 over the previous week to 1.87 million, according to Labor Department data.

The initial claims data comes as investor attention turns toward rate cut decisions at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in March. The minutes of the central bank’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting, released Wednesday, made clear the Fed is shifting further away from agreeing on another cut. The minutes even made mention of discussion around potential rate hikes.

Traders were pricing in a 94% chance that the Fed will maintain rates at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% next month, according to data from CME Group. Most traders are still expecting two rate cuts by the end of th

Etsy (ETSY) shares surged 22% during premarket hours on Thursday after reporting fourth quarter earnings. Despite revenue falling short, the online retailer’s stock soared after the company announced it would be selling Depop to eBay (EBAY) for $1.2 billion.

Investing.com reports:

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Etsy (ETSY) shares surged 22% during premarket hours on Thursday after reporting fourth quarter earnings. Despite revenue falling short, the online retailer’s stock soared after the company announced it would be selling Depop to eBay (EBAY) for $1.2 billion.

Ebay (EBAY) stock rose 7% before the bell on Thursday following the release of its fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday, which beat analysts’ estimates. The e-commerce company also announced the Depop deal with Etsy, in the hope of attracting younger consumers to the online auction site.

Deere (DE) shares rose 5% during premarket hours after raising its annual profit forecast amid a rebound in its construction business.

Epam (EPAM) stock sank 17% before the bell today after forecasting first quarter results in line with analysts expectations.

Walmart (WMT) posted earnings on Thursday that slightly topped Wall Street estimates for the past holiday quarter and year, amid solid growth in sales.

But the retail giant hinted at headwinds ahead in its guidance, pointing to tariffs, geopolitical conditions, and inflation, among other possible pressures.

Shares fell almost 3% before the bell as investors scrutinized the report, its first under new CEO John Furner.

Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports:

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Bloomberg reports:

Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS, SSNLF) shares jumped to a fresh record high Thursday, after local media reported that the firm is negotiating a price for its latest artificial intelligence memory chip that’s up to 30% higher than the previous generation.

The chipmaker’s stock rose as much as 5.4% on Korea Exchange, as the market reopened following a three-day holiday. Samsung is looking to price its HBM4 at around $700 per unit, according to Chosun Ilbo newspaper. Samsung declined to comment on the media report.

… After initially falling behind smaller SK Hynix (000660.KS) in the early days of the AI race, Samsung has been mounting a comeback. Just last week Samsung said it started mass production of HBM4 chips and had shipped commercial products to customers.

SK Hynix had set the price of HBM4 for Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) in the mid-$500 range in August but may move to match Samsung’s higher number, Chosun Ilbo said, citing unidentified people in the industry.

Read more here.

DoorDash (DASH) reported fourth quarter results that slightly missed Wall Street’s expectations on the top and bottom lines, while total orders rose more than forecast.

Earnings per share came in at $0.48, compared with the $0.55 the Street had forecast. But adjusted EBITDA reached $780 million in the quarter — up 38% compared to a year ago and almost $5 million above the Street’s estimates.

Meanwhile, revenue grew 28% year over year to $3.96 billion, a tick lower than the nearly $4 billion Wall Street predicted. Total orders, which means all orders through its marketplaces and commerce platform, also jumped 32% to 903 million in the quarter. That’s more than the 888 million analysts had anticipated.

Its stock rose as much as 13% during premarket hours on Thursday.

Marketplace GOV — the total dollar value of transactions completed through the marketplace, including taxes, tips, and fees related to DashPass and its international platform Wolt+, clocked in at $29.7 billion compared to the expected $29.1 billion.

That was driven higher by growth in new customers and order rates among existing customers in the US restaurant category.

For the first quarter of 2026, the company expects marketplace GOV to be in the range of $31.0 billion to $31.8 billion, above the Street’s forecast of $30.75 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $675 million to $775 million, which is below what the Street predicted of $800 million.

Oil steadied after its biggest daily gain since October, following an Axios report that American military intervention in Iran could come sooner than expected.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.