Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq whipsaw as bond yields surge, China-US trade war in focus

US stocks turned green on Friday as investors weighed the latest tariff development in the trade war between the US and China.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.2%

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) continued to climb, touching 4.47% while the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled below the psychological 100 threshold.

The emerging theme from this week’s tariff-sparked whiplash on Wall Street is whether the volatility in US bonds and the dollar signals waning appetite for US assets and their roles as safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), a key measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, fell below the 100 level to its weakest point since April 2022.

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday’s low of 3.87%. When demand for bonds is lower, their yields rise.

The moves this week were sparked by escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, as the US raised tariffs against Chinese goods and China increased levies on American imports.

“Beyond trade frictions, there’s a worrying trend: a decline in the appeal of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets,” wrote Quasar Elizundia, research strategist at Pepperstone.

“Historically, during times of global uncertainty, these instruments attracted capital seeking safety. However, current dynamics suggest a disconnect. Even amid global turmoil, the sentiment toward the dollar and Treasuries as safe havens is turning negative — a sign that something fundamental may be shifting.”

Perhaps enforcing that sentiment is the rise in gold (GC=F), which surged above $3,200 on Friday to hit a fresh record.

The home improvement sector is in flux.

Data from Bank of America shows that home improvement spending declined 2% year over year in March, following an 8% drop in February, underscoring a downward trend affecting the industry.

At the same time, spending on housing-related services grew 6% year over year in March, signaling a shift in how consumers are allocating their home improvement dollars. Analysts at Bank of America noted consumers moved toward contracting professional services rather than buying materials themselves for do-it-yourself (DIY) projects.

The report highlights that 6 out of 10 building categories saw year-over-year gains in March. The strongest performing categories include residential general contractors, roofing, siding, and HVAC services. Meanwhile, floor coverings and concrete contractors saw the weakest demand.

Retailers like Home Depot (HD) echoed this shift, reporting strong sales in appliances and power tools, signaling consumer interest in professional-grade products and services. Still, looming tariffs could throw a wrench into the industry.

While President Trump has reversed some tariff threats, China remains heavily targeted, with Chinese imports facing tariffs of 145%. These elevated duties could significantly raise the cost of building materials and home improvement products, adding more pressure in the months ahead.

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

Read more here.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Friday that the US economy could already be in a recession.

“I think we’re very close [to], if not in, a recession now,” Fink told “Squawk on the Street.”

The Trump administration’s tariff policy has sparked fears of a recession. Trump’s 90-day pause on some 75 countries announced earlier this week eased some of those concerns, but the escalating trade war between China and the US has not.

“I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty,” Fink said.

Another Federal Reserve official poured cold water on the notion of near-term rate cuts due to concerns about the inflationary effects of new tariffs.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

Read more here.

Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher on Friday, capping off one of the most volatile weeks in the bond market in recent memory.

By mid-morning trade, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday’s low of 3.87%.

It’s been the biggest week for the 10-year since November 2021.

Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped another 8 basis points to trade near 4.93% — also ahead of Wednesday’s highs.

It’s been the biggest week for the 30-year yield since … get ready for this … June 1982.

Read more about this week’s bond market moves here.

Stocks flipped into the green after CNN reported that the Trump administration privately reached out to Chinese officials ahead of China’s latest retaliation that raised the country’s tariff rate on US imports to 125%.

However, China appeared to rebuff that outreach as the US’s global trade provocations have narrowed to primarily focus on the US-China trade war.

From CNN:

Read more here.

Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Trump’s tariff policies were top of mind.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists.

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in April as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% from 4.9% the month prior. This marked the highest one-year inflation expectations since 1981. Just three months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed too, hitting 4.4% in April, up from 4.1% in March.

The lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 is sticking to his bearish call as tariff uncertainty continues to unsettle markets.

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:

Read more here.

US stocks dropped at the open on Friday after China raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, but hinted it won’t respond to any further escalation from the US.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved down 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was 0.5% lower.

China announced it will increase duties on US imports to 125%, but will “ignore” any further retaliatory hikes from Washington. On Thursday the White House clarified tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%. Earlier this week, President Trump paused tariffs on some 75 countries for 90 days.

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but are on track for their second weekly loss in a row as trade wars and OPEC+ spikes

Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose over 0.1%. WTI is trading at the critical $60 per barrel level, while Brent declined to $63 per barrel.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon gave it to me straight on the company’s earnings media call this morning when I asked about the level of client cautiousness given everything going on.

Dimon said, “You know, people are pulling back on doing deals, not just big ones, but middle market companies, and being very cautious about investment.”

He (and CFO Jeremy Barnum) added on the call that consumer spending is holding up.

Tesla stock (TSLA) fell 0.2% premarket after China hit back at the US by raising its tariff on US imports to 125% in the latest escalation of the tit-for-tat trading war.

Bloomberg reports that Tesla has removed the option to purchase new Model S and Model X electric vehicles from its China website. Existing inventory for the two models was still available, however.

The Model S and Model X are two of Tesla’s pricier offerings and are likely to be affected by tariffs. The models are imported into China as Tesla’s Shanghai factory only makes Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Read more here.

Shares of JPMorgan (JPM) and other Wall Street banks posted small gains as investors assessed their first quarter earnings before the bell.

JPMorgan booked a 9% rise in quarterly profit year-on-year, my colleague David Hollerith reports. But its CEO Jamie Dimon warned the US economy faces “considerable headwinds” as the largest US bank set aside 75% more provisions to cover future loan losses. Its stock moved up 1.3%.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Morgan Stanley (MS) all nudged up less than 1% after the banks reported a higher profit but potential risks emerged.

I caught up quickly with BNY (BNY) CEO Robin Vince this morning after earnings hit the wires.

Here’s what he told me on the topic of a potential recession (emphasis added):

The dollar (DX=F) is tumbling as concerns grow that the escalating US-China trade conflict is taking the shine off the greenback as the world’s reserve currency.

Headwinds came from China’s move to raise its US tariff rate from 84% to 125%, starting Saturday.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.

Eyes on Nvidia (NVDA) this morning after Citi analyst Atif Malik cut his estimates on economic concerns. Could be a sign of what is to come on the highflier.

Says Malik:

“We are lowering our GPU units for CY25/2026 by 3%/5% to align with our revised hyperscaler capex model of +35%/+15% spend reflecting mostly lower Microsoft (MSFT) capex concerns and higher risk of pause in enterprise investments amid uncertainty around the global economy due to ongoing trade war.”

Yours truly and Madison Mills will be going more into the call live on Yahoo Finance in the 10 a.m. ET hour.

Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban reports:

This is the Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief. Read more here.