Stock market today: Global stocks stabilize ahead of big central bank decisions, key data

12/15/25 07:17

The factors that kill bull markets will not be there in 2026

– Scott Barlow

Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel is almost certainly my best discovery in the sell-side strategy business in 2025. In his most recent report, he presents a 2026 market forecast and also makes some good points about the factors that have historically ended bull markets,

“7,750: The Bull Market will extend in 2026, underpinned by the ongoing AI Revolution and reinforced by solid if unremarkable economic growth, and fiscal and monetary stimulus (OBBB, Fed Cut Cycle). Importantly, the signs that have historically ended Bull markets – Recession, “uncooperative” Fed, exuberant investor and Capital Markets sentiment – are absent. Base Case is SPX 7,750 at YE 2026, $296 EPSe (up 8.4 per cent year-over-year, 26.2 times). At the same time, 2026 is primed to be more volatile than the last year, swings magnified by equity valuations approaching Dotcom Era extremes, top heavy Index concentration, and Economic and Political/Geopolitical uncertainty. Volatility is a feature of Bull markets – the Nasdaq’s Dotcom Bull saw regular 10-per-cent-plus corrections. Stay the course, stay invested in the ‘AI Revolution’ Buy Stocks when VIX is High, Buy Options When VIX Is Low.”

12/15/25 07:02

Six reasons the gold rally will continue

– Scott Barlow

Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie finds six reasons the gold rally will continue,

“Elevated trade uncertainty. Trade negotiations with China continue and the USMCA is up for renewal next year. Fiscal and debt issues. The US, as well as many countries, are running large deficits (as percentage of GDP) with no plan to return to equilibrium. That implies government debt, which is already elevated, will just keep rising in coming years. To provide some perspective, the U.S. debt now stands at US$37.6-trillion, up from US$22.7-trillion in 2019 (up 65 per cent in 5 years), while the average interest rate on the debt has climbed from 2.5 per cent back then to 3.36 per cent in 2025 … Central banks are buying gold for diversification purposes, but also to reduce their reliance on the greenback … Stablecoins backed by physical gold: A new source of demand. Media reports estimate that Tether has hoarded so far over 120 tons of gold to back its token. And Tether is not the only one backing its token with physical gold. Weaker dollar. We remain bearish on the USD, and we see further decline as positive for precious metals. Concerns about the Fed independence. If Trump succeeds in appointing a Fed chair aligned with his dovish stance (likely delivering questionable rate cuts), it could erode confidence in U.S. institutions, intensify selling pressures on the dollar (positive for gold to some extent)”

12/15/25 06:51

Wall Street futures edge higher at start of data-packed week

– Reuters

U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Monday, steadying after a tech-led selloff gripped Wall Street late last week and as investors geared up for a week packed with key economic data that could determine the outlook for interest rates.

Traders also got more clarity on candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair post next year as U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a report, said he narrowed his search to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

Expectations for a dovish chair have boosted expectations for Fed interest rate cuts next year, even as inflation stays above the 2-per-cent target and price pressures in other developed markets are boosting rate hike expectations.

JPMorgan top boss Jamie Dimon signaled support for former Fed Governor Warsh, according to a report, on the likelihood that Hassett could cut rates in the short term. Trump’s decision on the nominee is expected early next year.

Tuesday will bring non-farm payrolls figures for November and October, the latter being delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

Reports on business activity, weekly jobless claims and inflation later this week will also be pivotal for investors keen on the health of the economy and the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory. Rate decisions out of Europe, the UK and Japan are also expected this week.

At 5:45 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 231 points, or 0.48 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.48 per cent, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 118.25 points, or 0.47 per cent.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday as worries of sticky inflation and debt-fueled artificial intelligence investments pulled the indexes further away from record highs.

Those worries have weighed on U.S. equities several times over the past three months, helping Europe’s STOXX 600 outperform the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis.

In some relief, a Reuters report last week said Nvidia (NVDA-Q) is considering increasing production capacity for its powerful H200 AI chips. The company’s shares were up 1 per cent in premarket trading after last week’s 4-per-cent slide.

Weed stocks Cronos (CRON-T) and Tilray Brands (TLRY-T) gained 6 per cent each on reports that the U.S. could soon ease restrictions on marijuana.

Investors will also scrutinize commentary by a slew of policymakers this week after the Fed lowered interest rates on Wednesday.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran and the central bank’s New York Fed president, John Williams, are expected to speak later in the day. The two permanent voting members are viewed as policy doves.

12/15/25 06:51

Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

– David Leeder

After tariffs “seldom left the spotlight in 2025,“ trade-related uncertainty is likely to continue to weigh on Canadian industrial companies in the year ahead, according to National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev, who sees a backdrop “set for more choppy waters.”

In a research report released Monday, he reviewed the past 12 months in his coverage universe and previewed 2026, emphasizing the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which he calls “a cornerstone of the North American economy for over 30 years and a key driver in Canada managing to avoid a recession thus far, is set to come up for renegotiation and predicts the U.S. is ”likely to use their (real and perceived) market power to extract further economic concessions.”

Companies discussed include: Athabasca Oil Corp., AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., ATS Corp., AutoCanada Inc., Brookfield Corp., Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., Colliers International Group Inc., Element Fleet Management Corp., Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Finning International Inc., Hudbay Minerals Inc., Lundin Mining Corp., North American Construction Group Ltd., Onex Corp., RB Global Inc., Stantec Inc., Stella-Jones Inc., Wajax Corp., WSP Global Inc.
Read more: Monday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

12/15/25 05:58

Amber Kanwar’s Weekly Setup: Top-tier economic data, BlackBerry earnings and other essential things to watch

– Amber Kanwar

Before we can all head out for the holidays, there are some top-tier economic data being released that will be key to central bank policy. We are expecting a read of inflation in Canada on Monday and prices for the month of November are estimated to have ticked up to 2.3 per cent. With inflation right around target, some speculate we might not get rate moves in either direction next year. “Fully 7 of the past 15 years have seen the Bank on hold for a full calendar year,” wrote BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, who recently shifted his call to no rate changes for 2026.

U.S. data will be chockablock with the release of November job numbers and October retail sales on Tuesday, and then the consumer price index on Thursday. Anxieties about the rate path were stoked last week when the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack said she would prefer rates to be more restrictive. She will be a voter on Fed policy in 2026. There are also a host of international rate decisions from the European Central Bank (expected to hold on Thursday), Bank of England (expected to cut on Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (expected to hike Friday).

Read more: Five things to know this week

10/28/25 05:22

Global stocks stabilize ahead of big central bank decisions, key data

– Reuters

European shares moved higher on Monday as Wall Street futures pointed to a recovery from last week’s sell-off, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data.

Europe’s benchmark STOXX index of 600 large companies gained 0.6 per cent. S&P 500 e-mini futures rebounded 0.4 per cent, after U.S. stocks had slumped on Friday over concerns about a bubble in Artificial Intelligence shares and lingering inflation in the world’s biggest economy.

Asia shares were less buoyant thanks to renewed worries in China’s property market. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.2 per cent, led by a drop of as much as 2.7 per cent in South Korean shares, one of the world’s best-performing markets this year.

“The risk-off tone across Asia looks more like a spillover from last Friday’s selloff in U.S. momentum and tech than a region-specific catalyst,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

“The unwind in the AI-capex trade weighed on global risk appetite, and in thin year-end liquidity those moves tend to travel quickly across regions.”

Among the central banks making decisions this week, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent, while the Bank of England may make an equal-sized cut to 3.75 per cent.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, alongside Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank.

Investors will also have the chance to catch up on economic data that was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, including the jobs report for November and the monthly consumer price index.

12/15/25 05:20

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

– SR Slobodian

Global markets were mixed with European shares moving higher, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data.

Wall Street futures pointed to a recovery from last week’s selloff: Dow futures were up 0.37 per cent, S&P 500 futures rose 0.34 per cent and Nasdaq futures were 0.28 per cent higher as of 4 a.m. ET.

TSX futures followed sentiment higher.

“The unwind in the AI-capex trade weighed on global risk appetite, and in thin year-end liquidity those moves tend to travel quickly across regions,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

Wall Street’s week ahead: Investors eager for delayed data to shed light on U.S. economy

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.63 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.73 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.28 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.8 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.31 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.34 per cent.