Stock Market Today (LIVE): Dow Futures Drop 700 Points as Trump Vows Escalation and Crude Jumps to $110

📌 Top story — scroll down for more updates

Closing Bell

4:04 pm

Stocks swung sharply before closing lower as oil surged after President Donald Trump signaled the Iran conflict could stretch weeks, dimming hopes for a quick resolution. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped over 11% to $111 per barrel—its biggest dollar gain since 2020—while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased intraday rebounds tied to potential Strait of Hormuz monitoring. Rising energy prices and uncertainty pushed the CBOE Volatility Index above 25, reinforcing a “higher for longer” inflation backdrop tied to fuel costs.

• Not Just Oil—Helium Risk: Supply through the Strait matters for semiconductor-grade helium, a critical input with no substitute.
• Volatility Is the Message: Markets reversed multiple times intraday, suggesting uncertainty, not fundamentals, is driving price action into the long weekend.

Amazon Hits Sellers With a New Fuel Fee

3:41 pm — AMZN -0.68%

Rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict are starting to ripple through e-commerce. Amazon (AMZN 0.41%) will add a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge to Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) fees starting April 17, marking a shift after previously absorbing higher transportation costs. The move mirrors broader industry behavior as shipping giants adjust pricing amid elevated energy costs, with the surcharge averaging about $0.17 per unit. For investors, it’s a reminder that even scale leaders aren’t immune to macro pressures—and may increasingly pass them through.

• Cost Pressure Breaks Through: After holding the line, Amazon joins carriers like UPS and FedEx in pushing fuel costs downstream.
• Margin Shield or Demand Risk?: Fee hikes protect profitability—but could squeeze third-party sellers that drive Amazon’s marketplace engine.

AI Infra Surprise Lights Up Penguin

3:00 pm — PENG +13.48%

Shares of Penguin Solutions (PENG +12.90%) jumped nearly 12% after fiscal Q2 results topped expectations—and, more importantly, management raised full-year guidance. Revenue dipped 6% year over year to $343 million, but still beat estimates, while EPS of $0.52 cleared the $0.42 consensus. The real spark: Penguin now expects ~12% revenue growth for the year (double prior expectations) and higher earnings, signaling confidence in demand for its AI data center infrastructure despite uneven segment performance.

• Guidance Steals The Show: Full-year EPS now seen at $2.15 vs. $2.04 consensus, with revenue growth outlook doubling prior expectations.
• Volatility Still Lurking: Results remain uneven across segments, and shares—despite today’s pop—sit closer to recent lows than prior highs.

Check out our complete coverage of PENG’s most recent earnings report.

Desperation Or Genius? Bed Bath & Beyond Buys.

2:15 pm — BBBY -1.29%

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 0.75%) is snapping up The Container Store for $150 million, adding closet systems and in-home services to its retail playbook. The deal mixes stock and convertible notes, and brings more than 100 stores into a jointly branded footprint. Management is aiming beyond shelves and into higher-margin design, customization, and installation—using brands like Elfa and Closet Works to anchor a broader home-services push. If execution holds, this could mark a shift from cyclical retail sales toward stickier, service-driven revenue.

• From Shelves to Services: BBBY is leaning into installation and design—categories that can drive recurring, higher-margin revenue versus one-time product sales.
• Brand Power Play: Elfa and Closet Works could become gateway offerings, pulling customers deeper into full-home projects.

Macro Focus: Jobs Market Shrugs Off Fears

1:50 pm

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 202,000 last week, signaling continued labor market resilience despite macro pressures like rising energy prices. That figure came in well below expectations and marks a modest improvement from the prior week. While continuing claims ticked higher to 1.84 million, the four-week average hit its lowest level since September 2024, suggesting that layoffs remain contained even as hiring slows. All eyes now turn to tomorrow’s March jobs report; economists expect a modest rebound of 59,000 jobs after February’s decline.

• Quiet Strength Beneath the Surface: The drop in initial claims and improving four-week average point to a still-stable employment backdrop.
• Next Catalyst Incoming: March jobs data could shape expectations for Fed policy and market direction in the near term.

Microsoft to Build Its Own AI

1:05 pm — MSFT +0.4%

Microsoft (MSFT +1.01%) is shifting strategy to develop its own high-powered frontier AI models, signaling a desire to “wean” itself off partner OpenAI. Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman confirmed plans for in-house multi-modal models for text, audio, and images. While Microsoft holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, the partnership has soured as OpenAI taps rivals like Oracle (ORCL +0.74%) and Amazon (AMZN 0.41%) for cloud capacity. Shares of the software giant have plunged 23% in 2026 as Wall Street questions if massive infrastructure spending will yield the same rewards as peers like Alphabet (GOOG 0.20%). To hedge, Microsoft has also partnered with Anthropic while battling internal computing constraints.

• The Capacity Crunch: Microsoft’s struggle to meet OpenAI’s massive hardware demands has throttled its own development, forcing a multibillion-dollar capital expenditure race to secure future AI sovereignty.
• Disruption Defensiveness: By building proprietary models, Microsoft aims to prevent “productivity leakage” to partners turned competitors who are increasingly launching tools that threaten the core Windows and Office ecosystems.

Today’s Lunchtime News

1:15 pm — COIN -0.9%

Coinbase (COIN 0.88%) received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to operate as a federally chartered bank, a milestone the company says will unlock a broader market for its institutional custody business. Final approval requires Coinbase to clear several procedural hurdles including its first board meeting, adopting bylaws, and passing a pre-opening OCC exam.

• Institutional unlock: Coinbase already custodies more than 80% of the world’s digital asset ETFs, but a federal charter will make the company eligible to serve asset managers and hedge funds that require federally regulated custodians. Its institutional business managed $245.7 billion in assets as of mid-2025.
• Crypto goes mainstream: The OCC granted similar conditional approvals last year to BitGo (BTGO +1.31%), Circle (CRCL 0.53%), Fidelity Digital Assets, and others. Morgan Stanley (MS 0.05%) and Citadel Securities-backed EDX Markets have since joined the rush for federal crypto charters, reflecting how rapidly digital assets are being integrated into mainstream finance under the Trump administration.

Affordability Crisis Hits Auto Giant

12:10 pm — F -1.0%

Ford (F 0.77%) reported an 8.8% decline in first-quarter U.S. sales, totaling 457,315 vehicles, as the automaker grappled with an “affordability crisis” and difficult comparisons to last year’s tariff-driven buying spree. While rivals like General Motors (GM 3.33%) also saw dips, Ford’s flagship F-Series trucks fell 16%, hampered by production “retiming” following legacy supplier fires. The company’s electric vehicle segment took the hardest hit, with sales cratering 70% following the permanent discontinuation of the F-150 Lightning. Despite the top-line drag, Ford’s retail market share ticked up to 11.6% thanks to explosive demand for the Explorer and Expedition SUVs, which both posted gains of roughly 30%.

• The Internal Combustion Cushion: While “Model e” EV losses persist, the traditional “Ford Blue” gas-powered business is propping up the bottom line, with large SUVs reaching their best start since 2002 to offset truck supply constraints.
• Strategic Pruning: Ford is aggressively retiring the popular Escape crossover to retool its Louisville plant for a next-gen $30,000 electric platform, trading short-term volume for a more cost-competitive 2027 lineup.

Amazon Takes Aim at SpaceX’s Starlink

12:05 pm

Yesterday, SpaceX made it official, filing confidentially to go public. This is not exactly breaking news (I wrote about this on March 26), but the timing seems intentional, coming on the same day Artemis II — the first NASA mission of its kind since 1972 — headed to the moon. As my colleague Tim Beyers put it: “What space technology company wouldn’t want a rocket racing for the stars as the background track for their pitch to investors?”

The confidential filing means we won’t get much info on SpaceX’s financials just yet. But it’ll almost certainly be the first IPO valued at more than $1t.

Speaking of SpaceX, Amazon (AMZN 0.41%) is reportedly in talks to acquire satellite firm Globalstar (GSAT +13.32%) for ~$9b — a move aimed squarely at competing with Starlink’s 10,000+ active satellites. Amazon’s own Project Kuiper has just 180 satellites in orbit and faces an FCC deadline to launch 1,600 by July 2026. A key wrinkle: Apple holds a 20% stake in Globalstar and has reserved 85% of its network capacity for iPhone emergency texting, complicating any deal. The news was first reported by the FT, and hasn’t been confirmed by either Amazon or Globalstar, so we’ll wait and watch.

13 Chains, One Beverage Giant

11:30 am — KO +0.7%

Coca-Cola (KO +0.84%) is launching an unprecedented collaborative ad campaign featuring 13 major restaurant partners — including Domino’s Pizza (DPZ +2.67%), Jack in the Box (JACK +2.99%), Wendy’s (WEN 0.29%), and Wingstop (WING +5.27%) — to combat a 2% slide in U.S. diner traffic. The “And a Coke” initiative focuses on high-margin beverage sales to bolster restaurant profitability as 38% of consumers report spending less this quarter. With roughly half of Coke’s revenue tied to “away-from-home” channels, the beverage giant is acting as a strategic consultant to help partners navigate sluggish volume growth and a potential “cold” in North American consumer sentiment.

• The Liquid Gold Moat: Drinks represent the most profitable lever for struggling eateries; by subsidizing marketing for combos, Coke ensures its syrup remains the primary engine for industry-wide cash flow.
• Omnichannel Saturation: The campaign will skip traditional starts to debut in movie theaters before hitting Uber Technologies (UBER +0.06%) and DoorDash (DASH +4.04%), targeting consumers at the exact moment of transaction.

Tesla Deliveries Drop 14% From Last Quarter

11:15 am — TSLA -3.8%

Tesla (TSLA 5.46%) shares slid 3% Thursday after reporting 358,023 first-quarter deliveries, missing analyst expectations of 370,000. While volume grew 6% year-over-year, deliveries plummeted 14% sequentially. In a strategic pivot, CEO Elon Musk confirmed the end of the flagship Model S and X to make room for Optimus robot production in California. The company is grappling with the expiration of federal EV tax credits and a 38% quarterly decline in battery storage deployments. Despite the miss, a spike in used EV demand — driven by soaring oil prices amid the Iran conflict — suggests a potential silver lining as the company shifts focus toward “Cybercabs” and humanoid robotics.

• The Manufacturing Rebirth: By cannibalizing its high-end vehicle lines for robotics, Tesla is effectively betting that its future valuation depends on AI labor rather than personal transportation.
• Geopolitical Fuel: While the core business faces headwinds, the 12% jump in crude prices provides a powerful tailwind for EV adoption that could offset the loss of government subsidies in the coming months.

SBUX Turns To Weekly Pay in Massive Pivot

10:05 am — SBUX -0.8%

Starbucks (SBUX 0.07%) is doubling down on its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround by launching quarterly $300 bonuses for baristas who hit specific operational and sales targets. CEO Brian Niccol is betting that incentivizing store-level performance and expanding mobile-app tipping will boost total compensation by up to 8%, potentially curbing the turnover that has plagued the chain. While traffic grew last quarter for the first time in two years, the plan faces a hurdle: approximately 5% of U.S. stores under Starbucks Workers United representation may be excluded from these gains pending stagnant collective bargaining talks. To further sweeten the pot, the company will shift all U.S. employees to weekly pay starting this August.

• Digital Gratuity Engine: By integrating tipping into every mobile scan and app order, the company is effectively crowdsourcing a portion of its labor-cost increases to customers rather than solely hitting the corporate bottom line.
• The Assistant Manager Offensive: Beyond mere cash, the company is restructuring store leadership to support frontline staff, aiming to restore the “cozy” atmosphere that originally defined the brand’s premium market position.

Opening Bell

9:35 am

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened in a tailspin Thursday, surrendering 600 points as President Trump’s “Stone Age” threat toward Tehran shattered previous hopes for an immediate peace. This aggressive pivot sent West Texas Intermediate crude futures screaming 12% higher to $112 per barrel, creating a massive inflationary headwind just before the Good Friday market closure. As the Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreat under the weight of surging energy costs, the Federal Reserve appears increasingly boxed in, unable to offer a “pivot” while geopolitical shocks remain unanchored.

Top of the Morning

9:05 am

The same day Artemis II launches toward the Moon, the first NASA mission of its kind since 1972, just so happens to also be the day that SpaceX files confidentially to sell stock on public U.S. exchanges. Think that’s a happy coincidence? Think again.

SpaceX chose to file yesterday because it makes the marketing of its equity that much easier. I mean, what space technology company wouldn’t want a rocket racing for the stars as the background track for their pitch to investors?

SpaceX filed confidentially, so it could be some weeks before we get to dig into the cold, hard facts of the business behind the hype. But the hype is real. Don’t be too surprised if the veil is lifted with a redacted but still 80% complete S-1 available not long after splashdown in nine days.

Before the Opening Bell

9:00 am

Dow futures plummeted 700 points Thursday following a late-night address Wednesday night in which President Trump vowed to hit Tehran “extremely hard,” effectively cooling ceasefire optimism. Despite previous hints of a swift exit, the administration now pledges a two-to-three-week escalation, sending West Texas Intermediate crude up 10% to over $110 per barrel. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq followed suit, dropping as energy costs threaten to stifle consumer spending. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates amid this inflationary spike, investors are bracing for a volatile, holiday-shortened trading session ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report.

• Consumer Spending Roadblock: Higher oil prices act as a stealth tax on the American shopper; if these levels persist, discretionary sectors could see a significant pullback as fuel costs eat into household budgets.
• Fed Policy Paralysis: Analysts warn that the central bank cannot offer a “pivot” while energy-driven inflation remains unanchored, meaning market relief is entirely dependent on a geopolitical resolution rather than monetary intervention.