Stock Market Today (LIVE): Futures Rebound as Investors Shift Focus to Bank Earnings Despite U.S. Navy Blockade and Rising Crude

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Trump’s 50% China Tariff Threat Rattles Trade

10:00 am

President Trump threatened a “staggering” 50% tariff on China during a Sunday Fox News (FOX +1.16%) interview, following intelligence reports that Beijing may be preparing to ship advanced air defense systems to Iran. While Trump labeled the underlying CNN report as potentially “fake,” he insisted that any country caught supplying military hardware to Tehran would face immediate economic retaliation. The threat comes despite recent reports from the New York Times (NYT 0.54%) suggesting China actually pressured Iran toward last week’s temporary ceasefire. Beijing has maintained it is actively promoting peace but has not confirmed an official mediation role in the conflict.

• Trade War Escalation: A 50% levy would represent a massive expansion of current trade barriers, significantly impacting Apple (AAPL 1.02%) and other multinational manufacturers heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains.
• Geopolitical Volatility: The threat of renewed tariffs adds a layer of economic risk to the ongoing Middle East conflict, as investors weigh the impact of potential trade disruptions on global retail giants like Nike (NKE 0.47%).

Top of the Morning

9:05 am — GS -4.88% in pre-market trading

Goldman Sachs Group (GS 4.10%) delivered a powerhouse Q1 2026 performance that initially looked like a clean sweep, but the market’s mixed reaction proves that the “devil is in the details.” While net revenue jumped 14% to $17.23 billion and EPS of $17.55 blew past expectations, a closer look at the engine room explains the caution. The star of the show was the equities desk, which pulled in a record $5.33 billion, yet this was partially offset by a sluggish Fixed Income (FICC) segment that missed analyst targets by nearly $850 million.

The post-earnings dip–compounded by a broader inflation-driven market sell-off–raises a compelling valuation question. Currently, Goldman is trading at a forward P/E ratio of approximately 16x.

Intel Surges From “Life Support” to Top Performer

9:00 am — INTC -0.19% in pre-market trading

Intel (INTC +1.72%) has transitioned from “life support” to one of the S&P 500’s top performers, adding over $100 billion in market value during a historic eight-day rally. The surge was ignited by a $14.2 billion deal to reclaim its Irish plant from Apollo Global Management, followed by a high-profile partnership with Tesla (TSLA +1.06%) and SpaceX for Elon Musk’s Terafab project. Despite trailing the S&P 500 since 2020, Intel’s narrative is accelerating as it secures its position as a strategic domestic foundry asset. The U.S. government’s stake has swelled to $27 billion, reflecting growing confidence that the semiconductor giant is successfully reclaiming its competitive edge.

• High-Stakes Valuation: While shares trade at a record 90 times estimated earnings–well above dot-com bubble peaks–bullish analysts argue that Wall Street is underestimating long-term earnings potential as Intel shifts to expansion mode.
• Turnaround Validation: Beyond the Musk deal, Intel has secured future Xeon processor commitments from Alphabet‘s (GOOG +0.38%) Google, alongside previous backing from Nvidia (NVDA 0.51%), suggesting the company is becoming an indispensable partner in the global AI infrastructure race.

Super Mario Galaxy Movie Tops 2026 Box Office

8:15 am — CMCSA +0.21% in pre-market trading

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie from Comcast (CMCSA 1.02%) has officially become Hollywood’s highest-grossing film of 2026, amassing $628.8 million globally in its opening weeks. The live-action sequel, produced by Universal and Illumination, is riding massive momentum from its $300 million domestic haul and is now favored to reach the $1 billion mark. This performance reinforces the immense value of Nintendo’s intellectual property following the 2023 predecessor’s $1.3 billion run. While the film faces a crowded summer slate including Avengers: Doomsday, its current trajectory suggests a dominant year for Universal’s theatrical division.

• Content Strategy Payoff: The film’s success validates the long-term partnership between Universal and Nintendo, providing a high-margin revenue stream that offsets volatility in traditional cable and broadcast segments.
• Theatrical Dominance: By outpacing early 2026 projections, Mario provides Comcast a significant lead in market share over rivals, establishing a formidable “moat” ahead of Disney’s heavy-hitting summer releases.

GFL Deepens Western Canada Reach in CA$6B Deal

8:00 am — GFL -3.67% in pre-market trading

GFL Environmental (GFL 6.23%) is reportedly nearing a CA$6 billion ($4.33 billion) acquisition of Calgary-based Secure Waste Infrastructure (SECYF +8.66%). The deal, structured primarily as an 80% stock transaction, values Secure at a 15% premium and would give its shareholders a 15% stake in the combined entity. Under CEO Patrick Dovigi, GFL has utilized aggressive M&A to triple its market value in six years; this latest move significantly deepens its footprint in Western Canada’s industrial and energy waste sectors. The merger follows GFL’s recent $900 million purchase of Frontier Waste Solutions, signaling a relentless drive for North American scale through consolidation.

• Strategic Synergy: The acquisition allows GFL to cross-sell traditional waste services into Secure’s existing energy infrastructure client base, potentially driving significant cost efficiencies across the combined Canadian operations.
• Vertical Integration: By absorbing Secure’s pipeline and storage assets, GFL is diversifying beyond residential trash collection into higher-margin industrial waste streams, mirroring the consolidation strategies seen in major logistics and energy sectors.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am

We’re entering bank reporting season, after the stock market put in another positive week. The S&P 500 gained 3.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed 4.7%, after the threat of escalation of the Iran conflict subsided. The S&P 500 is within 1% of breaking even in 2026 year to date. S&P 500 futures, however, lost 0.6% this morning – with Nasdaq futures off by 0.7% – as President Trump again raised the heat after weekend negotiations with Tehran bore little fruit.

• Oil back over $100 again: The prospect of a blockade of all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz having called at Iranian ports pushed WTI crude to $105 per barrel, with Brent Crude hitting $103.
• Banks unofficially lead out the new reporting season: Goldman Sachs (GS 4.10%) kicks off first-quarter bank results before the opening bell today. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.64%), Wells Fargo (WFC 0.52%), and Citigroup (C 0.42%) are on the calendar for Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC 0.58%) and Morgan Stanley (MS 0.10%) report Wednesday.

McDonald’s Takes Aim at Starbucks With New Drinks

7:25 am — MCD -0.21% in pre-market trading

McDonald’s (MCD 0.29%) is preparing to launch a specialty beverage line this August, featuring Red Bull Dragonberry and custom sodas like “Dirty Dr Pepper.” The fast-food leader aims to weaponize its massive scale to undercut the pricing of premium competitors, positioning these offerings as affordable alternatives for a wider customer base. Franchisees have already invested thousands in specialized mixing equipment to ensure these high-margin drinks don’t disrupt kitchen throughput. This expansion marks a permanent shift toward the “caffeine and refreshment” territory traditionally dominated by boutique cafes and specialized soda shops.

• Targeting the Competition: The strategy directly threatens the market share of Starbucks (SBUX 0.58%) and Dutch Bros (BROS 6.30%) by offering sophisticated energy and tea blends at a lower price point during critical afternoon “snack” hours.
• Margin Expansion: Because beverages typically carry lower cost-of-goods than labor-intensive food items, successful adoption could significantly boost profitability for operators, offsetting broader inflationary pressures across the quick-service industry.

FTC Probes Ad Giants for Boycotting X Platform

6:30 am — WPP +0.63% in pre-market trading

The Federal Trade Commission is in talks with a number of advertising companies over alleged coordinated boycotts of platforms including X, says the WSJ. A probe into possible federal antitrust law violations – covering WPP (WPP +0.42%), Japan’s Dentsu, and others.

• “The only harm X has asserted is that its customers collectively chose X’s competitors over X”: The latest move follows last month’s dismissal by Senior U.S. Judge Jane J. Boyle of X’s lawsuit against companies including CVS Health (CVS 1.07%) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 0.69%), claiming their boycotts violated antitrust.
• No admission of wrongdoing: The proposal reportedly means the ad companies will agree not to avoid media outlets for political reasons. Individual advertisers can still choose to avoid platforms hosting undesirable content.

Meta’s Zuckerberg AI Twin Signals Bold AI Pivot

6:00 am — META -1.39% in pre-market trading

Meta Platforms (META 0.12%) is developing a photorealistic, 3D AI version of CEO Mark Zuckerberg to interact with employees and streamline corporate feedback. Zuckerberg is reportedly spending up to 10 hours a week coding on internal AI projects and training this digital twin on his specific tone, mannerisms, and strategic thinking. This push for “personal superintelligence” coincided with the release of Muse Spark, a specialized AI model that sent shares up 7% as investors cheered the company’s technical pace. Beyond executive avatars, Meta is implementing “skills baseline exercises” for staff, including “vibe coding” tests, as it pivots the entire $1.6 trillion organization toward an AI-first operating model.

• Infrastructure Payoff: Meta’s multibillion-dollar spending spree on compute capacity, including its recent $21 billion deal with CoreWeave (CRWV +6.74%), is now yielding proprietary models like Muse Spark that challenge leaders like Alphabet (GOOG +0.38%).
• Internal Efficiency and Risks: While management pushes AI automation to “streamline” product management, the internal rollout of these tools has sparked concerns over future job cuts, even as the tech proves difficult to scale due to massive processing requirements.

Replimune Collapses on Second FDA Rejection

5:15 am — REPL -56.09% in pre-market trading

Replimune Group (REPL 66.91%) shares plunged over 40% last week, and are down significantly this morning, after the FDA issued a second Complete Response Letter rejecting its RP1 melanoma therapy. The regulatory setback prompted analyst downgrades and raised serious questions about the biotech company’s survival prospects.

• Second rejection devastates investors: The FDA cited concerns about the single-arm trial design and manufacturing issues, echoing objections from the first rejection in July 2025 and sending shares down roughly 20% on the announcement.
• Survival strategy now critical: With RP1 representing the company’s lead program, analysts note that Replimune’s future hinges on executing a strategic pivot to preserve shareholder value and refocus on other pipeline candidates.

Before the Opening Bell

4:30 am

Stock futures recovered from overnight lows Monday as investors digested President Trump’s executive order for a U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The aggressive move follows the collapse of high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, ending hopes for a permanent de-escalation. While the Navy intends to interdict ships paying Iranian “tolls,” the blockade effectively halts critical energy flows, sending Brent crude surging back above $100 per barrel. Despite the geopolitical friction, markets found some footing as attention shifted to the opening of first-quarter earnings season, where investors look for corporate resilience amid rising inflationary pressures and supply chain instability.

• Big Banks Take Center Stage: Goldman Sachs (GS 4.10%) leads the charge this morning, with Wall Street bracing for commentary on how Middle East volatility is impacting deal-making and trading revenue ahead of reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.64%) and Citigroup (C 0.42%) later this week.
• Economic Fragility: The breakdown of the two-week ceasefire forces the Fed to contend with a renewed “war premium” on energy, complicating the outlook for Bank of America (BAC 0.58%) and Wells Fargo (WFC 0.52%) as they navigate shifting rate expectations and credit cycle risks.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Sanmeet Deo, CFA has positions in Alphabet and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Colgate-Palmolive, Dutch Bros, Goldman Sachs Group, Intel, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Nike, Nvidia, Starbucks, Tesla, and The New York Times Co. and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends CVS Health, Comcast, GFL Environmental, Replimune Group, and Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. and recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald’s and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald’s. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.