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US stock futures were mixed on Monday, gearing up for a week of potentially huge market-moving events — the presidential election and the Federal Reserve policy decision.
S&P 500 futures (ES=F) rose slightly after staging a comeback to end a losing week. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) nudged down 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) hovered below the flatline.
A so-far solid earnings season and interest rate-cut optimism are giving the market reasons to be cheerful ahead of Tuesday’s election, a big risk event for markets. The new president — whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — will set the course for the economy in the years that follow. The neck-and-neck race has investors bracing for volatility on Election Day itself.
Read more: The Yahoo Finance guide to the presidential election and what it means for your wallet
But with just one session to go, weekend polls showed Harris with a shock lead in Iowa and gaining ground elsewhere — a sign the Democrat has a better chance of winning than Wall Street had calculated. The dollar dropped by the most in a month as traders unwound bets on a Trump victory. Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year benchmark yield (^TNX) sliding almost 10 basis points to 4.30%.
Also looming large is the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, kicking off a day later than usual on Wednesday in light of the election.
Wall Street is convinced that Chair Jerome Powell will usher in a 0.25% rate cut on Thursday, despite signs of stubborn inflation and muddied job market signals. Given that, the focus is on what the action the Fed might take at future meetings, with the market now seeing three fewer cuts through the end of 2025 than it previously expected.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
At the same time, earnings continue to roll in, with beleaguered AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Arm (ARM), and Qualcomm (QCOM) among those lined up to report this week. With 70% of the S&P 500 having reported quarterly results, the benchmark index is on pace for its fifth quarter of earnings growth in a row as it rebounds from the 2023 earnings recession.
In other markets, oil prices jumped nearly 3% after OPEC+ decided to delay a planned hike in output by at least a month, and Iran escalated Mideast tensions by warning of a “crushing response” to Israel’s strikes.
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First time homebuyers made up the lowest share of the housing market since 1981
Affordability concerns are locking more potential first-time homebuyers out of the housing market.
A new report shows that first-time homebuyers made up 24% of all buyers this year, marking the lowest share since 1981, according to data from the 2024 National Association of Realtors (NAR) profile of home buyers and sellers.
High home prices, elevated borrowing costs and low inventory have hammered affordability over the past year, leaving many first-time buyers on the fence about purchasing a home. In July, the NAR surveyed over 167,000 recent homebuyers, who said the barriers to entry remained challenging.
“In the time frame surveyed, mortgage interest rates jumped to nearly 8%, and housing affordability reduced to historical lows. Home buyers continued to struggle with housing inventory,” NAR’s deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz told Yahoo Finance.
“At the same time, rental prices were rising and after a student debt pause, borrowers had to resume payments, making it difficult to save for a downpayment,” Lautz added.
Mortgage rates have jumped to between 6% to 7% this year — and now average mortgage rates are rising after hitting a two-year low in September. Meanwhile, entry-level buyers may also be bidding against those making all-cash offers.
“If a buyer was on solid financial footing to enter the buying market and there were multiple offers, there is a chance they were up against an all-cash offer,” Lautz said.
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Oil jumps more than 2% as OPEC+ delays adding supply to market
Oil futures jumped more than 2.5% on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would delay unwinding production cuts by a month.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures rose to trade above $71 per barrel while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, hovered near $75 per barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other countries said it would continue with its output cuts for one month until the end of 2024.
The decision to delay adding 180,000 million barrels per day starting in December had already been postponed in recent months amid volatile oil prices.
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
Economic data: Factory orders (September)urable goods orders (September)
Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Constellation Energy (CEG), Goodyear (GT), Hims & Hers (HIMS), Marriott International (MAR), Palantir (PLTR), Wynn (WYNN)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:
Why banks are (probably) rooting for Donald Trump
DJT slides as Trump Media traders get set for election day
Harris or Trump to shape US energy debate — but maybe not decide it
Oil rises as OPEC+ delays output hike, Iran steps up rhetoric
From stocks to crypto, investors are bracing for election swings
