Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 slide to kick off shortened week with AI fears in focus

The Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT) rallied Tuesday into key technical resistance above 19,500. That’s the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the Feb. 6 all-time closing high to the Feb. 12 closing low — and it’s the line in the sand for bears to defend.

Transportation and logistics stocks like RXO Inc. (RXO) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) were among last week’s biggest losers, as the “AI scare trade” morphed from a software-only problem into a sledgehammer that hit anything tied to efficiency, labor, and fee pressure — including asset managers and insurance brokers. Now they’re bouncing hard, with RXO at the top of the transport tape.

Airlines weren’t in the AI crosshairs, but they still got swept up in the industry sell-off. The spark was a paper from microcap Algorythm Holdings (RIME) on using AI in transportation logistics, which set off nerves in an index that had already notched 10 record closes in 2026.

Today, Southwest (LUV) is leading the airlines bounce — up near 7% — with United (UAL), American (AAL), and Alaska (ALK) in tow, each up more than 3%.

Meanwhile, RIME is down 17% after opening at a one-year high.

For the Dow Transports: holding above 19,500, bulls take control. Rejected, 19,000 is the downside target.

Apple (AAPL) shares gained more than 3% on Tuesday after a Bloomberg report indicated the tech giant is ramping up development of three new wearable devices with AI capabilities, including glasses, a pendant, and AirPods.

The devices are all built around Apple’s Siri digital assistant, according to the report.

The iPhone maker is competing with Meta (META), which is developing smart glasses, and OpenAI, which is exploring wearable devices.

Apple shares also gained following a bullish note from Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who brushed off a recent decline in Apple shares amid a broader tech sell-off.

“This recent worry and sell-off in Apple Inc.’s shares is unwarranted, as the focus is on Apple getting its AI strategy right and releasing its advanced AI features by the summer timeframe, which still appears to be on track,” wrote Ives.

Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating and a $350 price target.

Gold (GC=F) retreated more than 2% on Tuesday, but the recent volatility may be temporary as Wall Street analysts see a bullish outlook for the precious metal in 202

Gold futures hovered around $4,900 as Asian markets closed for the Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, Iran and the US reached a “general agreement” on a possible nuclear deal, easing tensions in the Middle East.

“Despite short-term softness, the structural drivers supporting gold remain firmly in place,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a newsletter.

The strategist highlighted central bank buying, geopolitical fragmentation, and portfolio diversification as key factors driving gold’s safe-haven appeal amid concerns over currency debasement.

Read more here.

Palantir (PLTR) has moves its headquarters to Miami from Denver, joining a growing list of firms through the financial and tech sectors to decamp for the growing “Wall Street South.”

The company announced the move in an X post on Tuesday. Shares picked up roughly 0.5% in midday trading.

In moving its headquarters to Miami, Palantir follows a large list of companies looking to Florida for lower taxes and a lighter business regulation scheme. Among those are Citadel, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, led by Ken Griffin; and Related Companies, the real estate investment firm led by Stephen Ross.

Griffin and Ross, both billionaires, recently launched a $10 million campaign aimed at convincing more corporate leaders to relocate their firms to Miami. Peter Thiel, the chairman of Palantir, also recently opened an office for his private investment firm in Miami, according to Bloomberg.

After Ford’s first release of electric vehicles, the automaker faced demand below expectations — and a massive bill of roughly $19.5 billion in write-offs. With its latest EV plan, the company is pivoting to a “universal electric vehicle (UEV) platform” designed to lower manufacturing costs.

Our Pras Subramanian reports:

Read more here.

Shares in renewable power provider Ormat Technologies (ORA) surged Tuesday morning, gaining more than 5% on the announcement of a deal that will see Ormat provide geothermal energy for Google (GOOG) data center projects.

Under the terms of the deal, Ormat will develop several geothermal power projects throughout Nevada that the company said provide Google with around 150 megawatts of power for the Big Tech hyperscaler’s data center projects in the region.

The sites are expected to come online between 2028 and 2030, Ormat said in its press release announcing the deal. The Purchase Power Agreement underpinning the project is subject to approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN), expected in the second half 20206, Ormat said.

“AI is fundamentally increasing electricity demand across the technology sector, and geothermal power is uniquely positioned to deliver the reliable, carbon-free power required to support that growth,” Doron Blachar, Chief Executive Officer of Ormat Technologies, said in the press release.

Oil prices fell Tuesday after Iran announced it had reached a “general agreement” with the US on a potential nuclear deal that would lift some sanctions on the Iranian regime.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, fell by 0.6% to trade below $67.50. Those on the US pricing benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F), lost 0.9% to change hands around $62.25.

In comments to state TV, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said, “We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles, based on which we will proceed from now on and move toward drafting a potential agreement.”

Iran’s leadership has spent the past month in talks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. The news is seen as lowering the risk of a military conflict between the two countries, which would apply an immediate risk premium to oil prices.

Iran largely controls the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint that sees roughly 20 million barrels of oil traverse its waters every day. Any moves to restrict access to the strait, or attacks against infrastructure in the region, would push oil prices much higher as buyers priced in longer and slower shipping routes and a drop-off in Middle Eastern supply.

Earlier on Tuesday, Iranian leadership said Tehran would partially close the strait for several hours due to military drills, according to Bloomberg. The move comes as the US has steadily built up its naval armament in the region, sending a second aircraft carrier to the region late last week. The US Maritime Authority advised ship captains in early February to avoid Iran’s territorial waters if possible, for fear of potential interference or forcible boardings.

Yet despite seeming progress toward a deal the X account for the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, posted several comments disparaging US involvement in Iran’s energy industry.

“The Americans say, ‘Let’s negotiate over your nuclear energy, and the result of the negotiation is supposed to be that you do not have this energy!'” the X account posted early Tuesday morning.

“If that’s the case, there is no room for negotiation; but if negotiations are truly to take place, determining the outcome of the negotiations in advance is a wrong and foolish act.”

Corporate profits are rising while labor income keeps falling, a sign that so-called “K-shaped” movements in the economy are continuing, analysts for Bank of America wrote on Tuesday.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the analysts wrote, an increasing amount of economic data has pointed toward an uptick in productivity. However, the economic gains from that productivity seem to be aggregating in corporate profits, while wages steadily fall.

This split between profits and income is consistent and being reinforced by the rally in financial as well as real assets, which are more concentrated among higher- and middle-income households,” the analysts wrote. The dichotomy in the data also “begs the question of whether these are real improvements in labor productivity.

“It remains to be seen whether wages and salaries recoup some of their lost ground relative to corporate profits,” the analysts wrote. “But for now, higher profits relative to wages are yet another driver of a K-shaped economy, as higher-income consumers tend to be more exposed.”

US stocks opened Tuesday’s session split, as the tech sector continued its downturn in a sign that investor concerns about AI disruption aren’t yet settling.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses, shedding roughly 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost a thinner 0.2%. Meanwhile, the blue-chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which is less exposed to the tech sector, rose roughly 0.3% before paring gains.

Fourth-quarter results from Walmart (WMT), a recent member of the the trillion-dollar market cap club, on Thursday will highlight the week’s earnings calendar. Constellation Energy (CEG), Energy Transfer (ET), Medtronic (MDT), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will also report this week, all on Tuesday.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index and an advance read on fourth-quarter GDP, both on Friday, will dominate investor attention on the economic calendar. Investors will also get meetings from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting on Wednesday.

Shares in consumer food giant General Mills (GIS) fell by more than 3.3% in premarket trading after the company lowered its 2026 sales outlook. “Weak consumer sentiment, heightened uncertainty, and significant volatility have weighed on category growth and impacted consumer purchase patterns” contributed to the dour outlook, the company said.

General Mills is now projecting organic net sales of -1.5% to -2%, down from a previous range of -1% to 1%. Adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted earnings per share are now expected at a range of -16% to -20%, down from a previously stated range of -10% to -15%.

“While the company is making meaningful progress in strengthening its remarkability to position the business for long-term sustainable growth, this progress has come amid a more challenging backdrop,” General Mills said in its statement.

While General Mills has managed to return roughly 4% since the beginning of the year, the company’s shares are down more than 18% over the past year. Meanwhile, an index tracking the consumer staples sector (XLP) has returned 15% year to date and roughly 10% since the same time last year.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) stock is moving higher after Warner Bros. (WBD) agreed to reopen acquisition discussions.

The move comes after Paramount proposed a new all-cash offer last week of $30 per share to acquire the entire company. That offer came with a $ 0.25-per-share “ticking fee” — under which Warner Bros.’ shareholders would receive $0.25 per share each quarter until the transaction is not closed beyond the end of this year.

Paramount also floated an informal acquisition proposal for $31 a share, WBD said.

The new window for discussions will last seven days, ending on Feb. 23, 2026, “to seek clarity for Warner Bros. stockholders and provide Paramount the ability to make its best and final offer.”

In the release, Warner Bros. Chair Samuel A. Di Piazza said the board of directors said it still suggests the Netflix offer, worth some $82.7 billion, which does not include the entire business.

“The Netflix merger is in the best interests of WBD shareholders due to the tremendous value it provides” with a “clear path to achieve regulatory approval,” he said in the release.

Paramount’s current offer of $30 per share values the whole company at $108.4 billion.

Netflix’s co-CEO Ted Sarandos testified before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee last week, negating claims that it would lead to a monopoly, or higher prices for consumers.

Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley lays out the key events ahead for investors in a holiday-shortened week.

He writes:

Read more here on what to look out for.

DTE Energy (DTE) stock rose as much as 10% before paring gains. The energy company is due to release its earnings before the bell today, and the stock has risen 13% over the past year.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock rose 7% during premarket trading on Tuesday after activist investor Elliott built a stake in the company.

Strategy (MSTR) stock fell 3% before the bell today. The company, which is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin, has been struggling recently due to the sell-off with the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

A growing number on Wall Street are assessing the recent AI sell-offs. And despite many fearing the bubble has burst, for stock pickers, now might be the time for them to get greedy.

Bloomberg News reports:

Read more here.

Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE, HPGLY) is buying ZIM Integrated Shipping Services in a deal worth $4.2 billion, bringing together two of the world’s biggest shipping lines.

Shares of Israel-based ZIM rocketed over 35% higher in premarket trading, after the two companies confirmed the takeover on Monday.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Read more here.

Nothing like a BofA fund manager survey drop the day after a market holiday.

Lots of great nuggets in the one out this morning, but the chart below stood out to me. So many on the Street I talk with expect a very robust economy this spring, in part because of expectations for a strong tax refund season.

Goes a long way in explaining the hot small-caps trade.

Masimo (MASI) stock surged over 30% in premarket following a report that Danaher (DHR) is closing in on a deal to buy the medical technology company.

The deal moves come two years after activist investor Politan succeeded in pushing through a change in Masimo’s board.

It would be the biggest acquisition by Danaher in over half a decade, the Financial Times reported. Shares of the US life sciences manufacturer fell over 5% before the bell.

The FT reports:

Read more here (premium subscribers)

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock rose 6% before the bell on Tuesday following a report from The Wall Street Journal that activist investor Elliott has built a 10% stake in the company and plans to push for changes.

Elliott has become one of the cruise line’s top investors and is keen to fix the company’s underperformance. Elliott has so far built stakes in Southwest Airlines (LUV), as well as oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX) and Toyota Industries (TYIDY). According to The Wall Street Journal, Elliott has over $79 billion in assets under management and is concerned about Norwegian Cruise Line’s financial performance.

The Wall Street Journal:

Read more here.

Nvidia (NVDA) has a very high bar to clear to appease investors when it reports earnings on February 25.

Citi this morning points to a few important things to keep in mind ahead of time:

“Key Investor Topics — a) Higher component costs impact to expected mid 70s percentage gross margins; b) updates on Anthropic/OpenAI investments; c) inference competition, and d) impact of the Groq licensing agreement on Nvidia’s product roadmap.”

From Bloomberg:

The dollar (DX-Y.NYB) is edging higher for a second day, shrugging off market pricing that implies roughly three Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% even as the yen strengthened about 0.4%, with declines for other currencies in the basket keeping the gauge higher.

Options markets indicate near-term bearishness on the greenback has eased, with so-called front-end risk reversals at their least negative in almost a month.

Money markets are still pricing about 64 basis points of Fed cuts by year-end. Some strategists argue that is overdone as three cuts may be more than the data justify, leaving the market vulnerable to a dollar rebound.

“Fed funds rate-cut bets look stretched, leaving room for a near-term USD-positive repricing,” said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, citing resilient growth and underlying inflation that has stalled above the Fed’s 2% target.

Read more here.