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Stocks looked set to rise on Wednesday, as investors waited for the first of two key inflation reports that could help determine how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025.
Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 35 points, or 0.1%, but other indexes were on pace to open higher. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3% and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were also up 0.3%, boosted by Oracle reporting a surge in artificial-intelligence bookings. All three benchmark indexes closed at record highs on Tuesday.
Inflation is likely to pose the biggest test for the market this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to post its producer price index report at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time today, and the consumer price index is due out at the same time tomorrow.
Investors are all-but certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month–but if the data suggest a flare-up in inflation, that could make it tougher for the central bank to cut borrowing costs.
“Despite weakening global growth prospects, optimism is still swirling given that an interest rate cut from the Fed looks firmly on the cards this month,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote. “Sentiment could turn sour if today’s inflation snapshot comes in higher than expected.”
Investors will also be keeping a close eye on mounting geopolitical tensions. Israel targeted Hamas officials with a strike in Qatar on Tuesday, and Poland said overnight that it had shot down Russian drones over its territory following a Russian attack on Ukraine.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was at 4.09% early Wednesday. The dollar was flat against a weighted basket of its peers, and gold futures prices were unchanged at $3,682 an ounce.