US stocks moved deeper into the red on Tuesday as investors assessed a new batch of economic data. Meanwhile, reports that Iran is preparing a potential missile strike against Israel pushed bond yields lower and boosted the price of crude oil (CL=F).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid roughly 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 1% after both major indexes capped last quarter with fresh record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) escalated losses in early trading, dropping around 1.7%.
Fresh jobs and manufacturing data kicked off the new quarter as investors searched for further clues on the future of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank is not in a rush to rapidly cut rates.
Job openings surprisingly increased in August, furthering the narrative that while the labor market is cooling, it’s not rapidly slowing. New data showed there were 8.04 million jobs open at the end of August, an increase from the 7.71 million seen in July.
Meanwhile, US manufacturing held steady in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 47.2 last month. Despite holding steady, the reading still came in weak, as a PMI below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
The data sets investors up for Friday’s September jobs report, the highlight in a week full of closely watched economic data. Investors are watching for confirmation that the US economy is cooling, rather than crumbling.
Meanwhile, a strike by dockworkers began on the East and Gulf coasts, threatening to halt the flow of half the US’s ocean shipping. Disruption from the large-scale stoppage could cost the economy billions of dollars a day, stoke inflation, put jobs at risk, and reverberate through US politics.
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Oil prices jump the most in nearly a year
Oil prices spiked on Tuesday after Iran fired over 100 ballistic missiles against Israel, pushing prices to the highest level in nearly one year.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose more than 5% to trade just below $72 per barrel. Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, also climbed roughly 5% to hover firmly above $75 per barrel.
One concern around the crude market’s rise is the impact it could have on inflation, as higher energy prices over the longterm can often increase input costs for goods and services. This could potentially lead to more price increases across the board, including non-energy categories.
James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics wrote on Tuesday that “much remains uncertain” in response to Tuesday’s spike in prices.
He argued a key issue will be the attack’s “size and whether it inflicts significant damage, particularly in civilian areas. A major escalation by Iran risks bringing the US into the war, which Tehran will presumably seek to avoid.”
“In any event, the impact on oil prices will remain the key channel of transmission to the global economy,” the economist added, noting Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output. “An important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies were disrupted.”
Reilly said, as a rule of thumb, a 5% increase in oil prices adds about 0.1%-points to headline inflation in advanced economies like the United States.
“As such, we think that it would take a much larger (and sustained) increase in oil prices to have a bearing on central bank policy.”
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Sector watch: Energy, utilities lead while tech lags
Energy (XLE) and tilities (XLU) led Tuesday’s sector action, up about 1.8% and 0.4%, respectively.
Energy saw a significant boost after crude oil (CL=F) jumped about 4% to trade just under $71 a barrel after headlines circulated Tuesday morning that Iran is preparing a missile strike against Israel. Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, also rose to hover north of $74.
Meanwhile, the utilities sector, one of the most defensive segments of the economy, has seen a boost in recent months amid the artificial intelligence boom. It’s also been viewed as a hedge against a possible economic downturn.
Technology (XLK) was the day’s biggest laggard, with the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 2% in afternoon trading. Within tech, Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) were two of the biggest losers. Both stocks shed more than 3%.
(Courtesy: Yahoo Finance) -
Port strike creates risks but here’s why it might not fuel inflation
A strike by dockworkers began on the East and Gulf Coasts early Tuesday, threatening to halt the flow of half the US’s ocean shipping and potentially cost the economy billions of dollars per day.
“If it lasts for more than a few days or more than a week, you’re going to get massive cascading effects,” Flexport founder and CEO Ryan Petersen said on Yahoo Finance’s Market Domination prior to the start of the strike.
He noted that 15% of the world’s container ships could be taken offline, resulting in “a huge reduction in capacity” and potentially creating a supply chain disruption “much worse” than what the US economy experienced during the pandemic.
But Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman predicts the strike will not fuel inflation, a top concern as the stoppage officially gets underway.
“While the strike will impact ~40% of US container volumes and comes at a poor time ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season and elections, it should not materially fuel inflation, like port shutdowns did in 2021-2022,” Aleman said in a new note on Tuesday.
“The reason: softening consumer demand. Slower job growth, a more discerning consumer, and an expected cooling in shelter costs should limit the upside impact.”
Read about the strike and what it could mean for the economy, politics, and more here.
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Oil moves higher on Iran missile strike headlines
Oil prices pushed higher following headlines Tuesday morning that Iran is preparing a missile strike against Israel.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose about 3% to trade above $70 per barrel. Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, also climbed roughly 2% to hover just below $74 per barrel.
“The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel,” a senior White House official said in a statement cited by multiple outlets. “We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran.”
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated in recent days after Israel launched ground raids in southern Lebanon, targeting Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The possible missile strike, along with mixed jobs and economic data released earlier Tuesday, led stocks to the downside, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the declines.
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Job openings pick up in August, quits rate declines
Job openings surprisingly increased in August, furthering the narrative that while the labor market is cooling, it’s not rapidly slowing.
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 8.04 million jobs open at the end of August, an increase from the 7.71 million seen in July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show job openings ticked up slightly to 7.67 million in August.
July’s figure was revised higher from the 7.67 million open jobs initially reported.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.31 million hires were made during the month, down from 5.41 million in July. The hiring rate hit 3.3% in August, down from 3.4% in July. Also in Tuesday’s report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, tumbled to 1.9%, its lowest level since June 2020.
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Stocks off to slow October start
US stocks opened lower on Tuesday to kick off the first trading day of October and the fourth quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid roughly 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.3% after both major indexes secured a fresh record close on Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also moved to the downside, dropping around 0.3%.
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Stellantis stock drops further on Jeep recall over fire risks
Jeep-maker Stellantis (STLA) edged down 1% in premarket trading Tuesday after issuing a recall for over 150,000 hybrid Jeep SUVs over a “potential fire risk.”
The drop in Stellantis shares comes just a day after the stock plummeted 12.5% in reaction to the automaker’s gloomy outlook for its North American operations. Stellantis — which also manufactures Dodge and Ram cars — said it expects to record profit margins of 5.5% to 7% for the full year, rather than its previous double-digit guidance. To weather deteriorating conditions in the global auto industry, the automaker has planned cost-cutting measures and discounts, Yahoo Finance reporter Pras Subramanian explained on Market Domination.
Meanwhile, the newly issued recall affects 2020-2024 Jeep Wrangler 4xe and 2022-2024 Jeep Cherokee 4xe SUVs. The company said it found 13 fires linked to the issue in an internal investigation, but it estimates that only 5% of recalled vehicles exhibit the fire risk.
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Barclays pulls no punches on Apple
Barclays analyst Tim Long dropped the mic on Apple (AAPL) this morning in a new note, calling out weak demand for the iPhone 16.
Here’s what Long had to say:
“There was a lot of news about increased iPhone builds in early July, a few weeks after the introduction of Apple Intelligence. Based on our recent supply chain channel checks, we believe AAPL may just have cut roughly 3 million units at a key semiconductor component in iPhones for the December quarter, which if confirmed would be the earliest build cut in recent history. Our sell-through checks point to 15% declines year over year for global iPhone 16 in the first week of sales. We also tracked iPhone availability across geographies globally, which suggest softer demand for IP16 relative to last year. Wait times across major geographies we tracked were much shorter vs. last year. While the supply chain constraints on IP15 pro models extended lead times last year, it nevertheless points to potentially weaker-than-expected demand, especially across US and China. All of the above data points point to softer demand than previously anticipated.”
Long reiterated an Underweight rating on Apple (Sell equivalent).
