Stock markets today: TSX, Wall Street futures slip as Middle East tensions, volatile oil keep markets on edge

Markets update

• Gold prices fell nearly 2% as the U.S. dollar strengthened after reports that the ⁠U.S. will deploy ​thousands of additional troops in the Middle East, further fanning concerns of higher oil prices, inflation, and with it, elevated interest rates. Spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,566.26 per ounce as of 11:03 a.m. ET ​after rising 1% earlier in the ‌session.
• The S&P 500 fell 0.7% in morning trading and was on track for a fourth straight losing week, its longest such streak in a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 136 points, or 0.3%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.2% lower.
• The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 1.2% at 31,476.37. Energy stocks fell 1.6%. All major sectors on the TSX were in negative territory, with materials leading ‌losses, down ​2.9%.
• Short-term bond yields are sharply higher in both the U.S. and Canada. Money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada by this July’s policy meeting. Almost three rate hikes are priced in by the end of this year. For the Federal Reserve, traders pushed their bets for a rate cut to sometime in 2027, from December 2026 earlier this month. Rate hikes are also being priced in across the pond.
• Oil prices were up about 1%.

03/20/26 13:20

CoolIT sold to Ecolab for $4.75-billion in one of biggest ever Canadian tech takeovers

CoolIT Systems Inc., a fast-growing Calgary-based cooling technology supplier to the data centre industry, has been sold to a U.S. public company in one of the largest exits ever in Canada’s technology sector.

Ecolab Inc. ECL-N of St. Paul, Minn., said Friday it had purchased CoolIT from private equity giant KKR & Co. Inc. and Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co. for US$4.75-billion in cash, amounting to 29 times the Calgary company’s forecast adjusted operating earnings for the next 12 months.

Read more here from the Globe’s Sean Silcoff

03/20/26 12:48

Fed officials say Iran war obscuring outlook as traders price in rate hike

The risk of persistent inflation arising from the escalating war with Iran was strong enough to convince an influential Federal Reserve policymaker to switch his support to keeping interest rates on hold from cutting them this week.

“We don’t know where this is going to go, but we have to sort of think maybe caution is warranted” for the U.S. central bank, given the recent surge in energy prices, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a CNBC interview.

Noting that many oil price shocks usually involve a surge and then a subsequent pullback, the Fed ​is watching to see if prices surge and stay high, as that poses the most notable ‌risk to drive up inflation that’s already above the central bank’s 2% target, he said.

If high energy prices start pushing up underlying rates of inflation, “you do have to kind of respond,” Waller said. But for now, “I just want to wait and see where this goes, and if things go reasonably well and the labor market continues to be weak, I would start advocating again for cutting the policy rate later this year,” Waller said, adding that he didn’t see any need to consider raising borrowing ‌costs, as some Fed ​officials are now contemplating.

In a separate interview with ‌Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” program, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said “it’s too early to tell what the longer-term imprint will be on ​the U.S. economic activity, and how we should think about that in terms of ⁠our longer-term economic forecast, and how we should think about that in terms of our (policy) meetings and any rate changes that ⁠we might make as a result of economic evolution coming forward.”

Waller and Bowman were the first Fed policymakers to speak publicly since the U.S. central bank decided on ​Wednesday to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range following the end of a two-day policy meeting. The Fed’s policy statement flagged the uncertainty that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was creating for the economic outlook.

Updated economic projections released by the Fed on Wednesday showed policymakers continuing to pencil in a single quarter-percentage-point rate cut this year and another such move in 2027.

Traders of short-term interest-rate contracts, however, are now pricing in increased odds of a rate hike in December, a dramatic shift from expectations ⁠earlier this week of a reduction in borrowing costs.

– Reuters

03/20/26 12:24

Oil rises as thousands of U.S. troops set to head to Middle East

Oil prices rose 1% in choppy trading on Friday, as the three-week-old Iran war shows no signs of abating with the U.S. preparing to send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East ⁠in coming ​weeks.

Brent futures for May rose 91 cents, or 1%, to $109.64 a barrel as of 12:11 p.m. EDT (1611 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April, which expire on Friday, were up $1.29, or 1.3%, to $97.43.

While President Donald Trump on Thursday said Israel would not repeat attacks on energy facilities, the market is starting to build in expectations of longer supply shut-ins following attacks and several weeks – at least – before the crucial Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

“The potential for a quick reversal in energy prices is unlikely because damage has been done to production,” said Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at ‌Saxo Bank.

Brent ​is on target to gain about ‌6% on the week. The front-month WTI is down around 1.3% from where it closed last Friday, however. WTI’s discount to ​Brent hit its widest in 11 years on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump said on Friday that there ​are no leaders left in Iran to talk to about the war as military strikes continue to target Iranian officials. The U.S. president also reiterated demands that Iran have no nuclear weapons.

Israel and Iran traded fresh attacks on Friday, following a hit on an oil refinery in Kuwait. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said removing oil sanctions on stranded waterborne Iranian cargoes would get supplies to Asia in three to four days, ⁠following similar comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday that made those plans clear. Bessent had said a further release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was possible. Wright said reserve releases will take place over the next few months.

Analysts said prices will remain elevated as long as traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and LNG transits, is disrupted.

“As long as the flow of oil through the ⁠Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the path of least resistance for crude prices remains ​to the upside,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned in an interview with the Financial Times ⁠on Friday that it could take up to six months to restore oil and gas flows from the Middle East Gulf, and that politicians and markets were underestimating the ‌scale of disruption. The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait ​of Hormuz, Axios reported on Friday, which could also pressure supply.

– Reuters

03/20/26 11:51

David Rosenberg says surge in BoC rate hike bets ‘may go down as one of the most bizarre financial events to have ever happened in this country’

– Darcy Keith

Economist David Rosenberg is also not on the market’s side when it comes to pricing in three rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year. And that’s putting it mildly.

He tells the Globe, in an email, “The fact that the swaps curve and the front end of the bond market have gone ahead and priced in rate hikes in Canada may go down as one of the most bizarre financial events to have ever happened in this country. It is beyond preposterous to think that the Bank of Canada will be hiking rates in an environment where a sub-one percent growth backdrop is precipitating an ever widening disinflationary output gap. Given the rising slack in the labour market all this oil price shock will accomplish is a contraction in real incomes and spending as it hits the proverbial wall in the weakening labour market. The only way the Bank of Canada would ever raise rates in this sort of environment is if there was evidence that the price shock would feed into wages and that simply is not going to happen. I classify this as the mother of all misplaced knee-jerk reactions. And when all is said and done interest rates will come down to levels that will be lower than they would have been without this energy shock which is a de-facto a disinflationary tax on domestic demand.”

03/20/26 11:44

Desjardins thinks markets have it wrong, reiterates call that BoC will stay on sidelines

– Darcy Keith

Desjardins managing director and head of macro strategy Royce Mendes thinks markets have got it wrong in pricing in three Bank of Canada rate hikes this year, as of this morning. He thinks the bank will stay on hold for the rest of this year.

In a note just issued, he says: “Canada’s rates market has been caught up in the massive front-end selloff in global sovereign debt markets. But conditions are decidedly different in Canada. Prior to the Middle East conflict, underlying inflationary pressures looked extremely muted. In contrast, core inflation in both the UK and Eurozone had been stuck above their respective central bank targets. Moreover, the weight of energy in Canada’s CPI basket is considerably lower than in most other OECD countries. Both of those facts leave Canadian monetary policymakers with significantly more scope to look through the recent spike in energy prices.”

“In part, the soft inflation readings have been the result of a struggling economy which has been persistently exhibiting excess supply. Overreacting to a likely temporary inflation spike with more restrictive monetary policy could needlessly deepen the economic pain. In the short term, higher energy costs will work like a tax on many households and businesses. Financial conditions have also meaningfully tightened. As a result, the wave of homeowners renewing their mortgages – and those looking to buy a new home – will face fixed rates materially higher than just a few months ago, potentially pushing the hard-hit markets in Toronto and Vancouver further into recession. As a result, despite this week’s violent front-end moves, we are reiterating our call that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines for the duration of 2026.”

03/20/26 11:14

U.S. to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, officials say

The United States military is deploying thousands ⁠of ​additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday.

The sources, who were ⁠speaking on the condition of anonymity, did not say what the role of the additional troops would be.

But one ⁠of the officials ​said the troops were departing ⁠the West Coast of the United States about ‌3 weeks ahead of schedule.

The White ​House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

– Reuters

03/20/26 10:54

Canada’s 5-year bond yield – key to fixed mortgage rates – at highest since 2024

– Darcy Keith

Canada’s five-year bond yield is up about 12 basis points to 3.196% and at its highest since June 2024.

It started this week at about 3.062%.

If this surge in yields sticks for long, it will undoubtedly result in upward pressure on fixed mortgages rates. It’s also likely to result in higher GIC payouts.

03/20/26 10:47

German 10-year bond yield hits highest since 2011

German ​10-year government bond ‌yields hit their highest since the middle ⁠of ​the euro zone crisis in 2011 on Friday, as ​the U.S.-Iran ‌war roiled energy markets and pushed investors to brace for a ‌new ​inflationary shock ‌in Europe. The European ​Central Bank on ⁠Thursday held interest ⁠rates, but signalled ​it was closely watching surging energy prices driven by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The ⁠10-year yield, a benchmark for European government borrowing costs, hit a high ⁠of 3.025% ​and was last ⁠up 7 basis points (bps) on ‌the day. Yields rise as ​prices fall and vice versa.

– Reuters

03/20/26 10:41

Markets priced for 75 basis points of BoC rate hikes by year end

– Darcy Keith

Money markets are now pricing in more than 75 basis points of rate hikes by the Bank of Canada by the end of this year.

Implied interest rate probabilities in overnight index swaps suggest a Bank of Canada overnight rate of 3.032% by the December 9 policy meeting, according to Bloomberg dadta. The current overnight rate is 2.25%.

Currently, markets are putting about 64% odds that there will be a quarter point rate hike by the June 10 policy meeting.

03/20/26 10:25

Canada’s two-year bond yield surges amid rate hike bets

– Darcy Keith

Canada’s two-year bond yield is rising further, now up 22 basis points at 3.057%. For the bond market, that’s a very sharp one-day move. The equivalent U.S. Treasury is up 10 basis points.

Two-year yields are sensitive to Bank of Canada policy moves and this is a further signal markets are bracing for a strong likelihood of rate hikes later this year as the Middle East conflict rates on.

The U.S. dollar is extending gains against peers, which is putting gold under renewed pressure this morning, now down about 2%.

03/20/26 10:16

Market bets on December Fed rate hike surge

​Traders ‌of short-term ⁠interest-rate contracts ​on Friday ​priced ‌in a ‌better-than-even ​chance ‌of ​a Federal Reserve ⁠interest-rate ⁠hike ​in December, a dramatic ⁠shift from expectations ⁠earlier ​this ⁠week of ‌a rate ​cut.

– Reuters

03/20/26 10:07

Power Corp. shares rise after two analyst upgrades

– Darcy Keith

At least two analysts upgraded Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T) in the wake of this week’s earnings and share price weakness.

TD Securities analyst Graham Ryding raised his rating to “buy” from “hold”, believing that the recent selloff makes for an attractive entry point. While maintaining a C$74 price target, he says valuations are attractive.

Meanwhile, RBC analyst Bart Dziarski upgraded his rating to “outperform” from “sector perform” while raising his price target to C$73 from C$69.

Shares are up 2.5% in morning trade.

See all the details in this morning’s Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades report.

03/20/26 09:56

Fed’s Bowman, Wall Street brokerages expect rate cuts by end-2026

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday she’s notably more in the way of interest rate cuts relative to her colleagues.

“I’m still concerned about…the job market,” Bowman said in an interview on the FOX Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria.” “I’ve written three cuts in for, before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market,” she said.

Bowman’s decidedly dovish outlook on monetary policy stands in contrast with others at the central bank. At this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting officials maintained their current federal funds target rate range setting at 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent amid the considerable uncertainty created by the Iran war. Officials penciled in a single cut this year and one more next year.

Meanwhile, major brokerages are still forecasting two U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2026 in contrast to the central bank’s latest projections.

Morgan Stanley became the latest brokerage to revise its forecast for the central bank, joining peers such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays to expect the first rate reduction in September, compared with June previously.

– Reuters

03/20/26 09:45

Gold rises but face third straight weekly drop on higher rate outlook

Gold prices firmed on Friday but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly decline, due to expectations of a hawkish stance from major central banks amid inflationary risks spurred by the Middle East conflict.

Spot gold rose 0.6 per cent to $4,674.29 per ounce as of 9:01 a.m. ET, on bargain‑hunting after prices hit their lowest level since February 2 in the previous session.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.5 per cent to $4,675.20.

Major global brokerages see a higher likelihood of the European Central Bank and Bank of England raising interest rates, potentially as early as April. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and projected higher inflation, while Chair Jerome Powell said future policy path was subject to unusually high uncertainty due to the war.

“The war is providing some haven support, but that’s secondary. The prospects of the Fed staying on hold into 2027 is creating a headwind for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

“A move back above $4,800 would ease some of the downside pressure and suggest potential for a move toward $5,000. I don’t see a breakout from the current range anytime soon, but when it does happen, I think the move will ultimately be to the upside.”

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, but higher interest rates curb the non-yielding asset’s appeal.

– Reuters

03/20/26 09:40

TSX opens lower as Middle East tensions keep investors on edge

Canada’s main stock index fell at open on Friday in broad sectoral declines and was on track for a third straight weekly loss, as cautious investors monitored developments in Middle East conflict, which is nearing its fourth week.

At 09:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.4 per cent at 31,731.87.

– Reuters

03/20/26 09:36

Wall Street opens lower as Middle East turmoil clouds Fed outlook

Wall Street’s main indexes opened lower on Friday as the Iran war approached its fourth week, roiling energy markets and prompting investors to aggressively reprice bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45.8 points, or 0.10 per cent, at the open to 45,975.65. The S&P 500 fell 11.8 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 6,594.66, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.4 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 21,989.333.

– Reuters

03/20/26 09:25

Canadian retail sales up 1.1% to $70.7-billion in January: Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada says retail sales were up 1.1 per cent at $70.7 billion in January, led by sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

It says sales were up in six of the nine sub-sectors it tracks, as the motor vehicle and parts dealers sub-sector posted the largest increase in retail sales in January — up two per cent.

Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.9 per cent in January, led by higher sales at general merchandise retailers. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers increased 2.6 per cent.

Food and beverage retailers posted the largest decline in core retail sales, down 0.6 per cent, while sales at supermarkets and other grocers, except convenience stores, fell 0.7 per cent.

In volume terms, retail sales were up one per cent in January.

The agency says its early estimate for February pointed to a gain of 0.9 per cent, though it cautioned the figure would be revised.

Read the full story here.

– The Canadian Press

03/20/26 09:18

Oil falls as US, allies discuss efforts to boost supply and open Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices fell over 1 per cent on Friday as the U.S. outlined moves to manage the oil supply crisis, while leading European nations, Japan and Canada offered to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures for May fell $1.58, or 1.45 per cent, to $107.07 a barrel at 7:20 a.m. ET (12:20 p.m. GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April, which expire on Friday, were down $1.30, or 1.35 per cent, to $94.84. The more liquid May WTI futures contract was at $94.30 at 1220 GMT, down $1.25 or 1.31 per cent.

At those levels, Brent was heading for a 3.8 per cent weekly gain, while the front-month WTI was down around 3.9 per cent from where it closed last Friday. WTI’s discount to Brent hit its widest in 11 years on Wednesday.

Israel and Iran traded fresh attacks on Friday, following a hit on an oil refinery in Kuwait.

On Friday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said removing oil sanctions on stranded waterborne Iranian cargoes would get supplies to Asia in three to four days. He added that more oil is needed in Asia and that the U.S. is playing a part in a coordinated release from strategic reserves. Releases will occur over the next few months, Wright said.

His comments came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil stranded on tankers, and said a further release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was possible.

– Reuters

03/20/26 09:02

Money markets are rapidly pricing in BoC rate hikes for this year

– Darcy Keith

Traders have been quickly recalibrating their predictions for central bank rate moves across the globe this week to account for surging oil prices and inflationary pressures. Canada has been no exception.

Money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike by the Bank of Canada by this July’s policy meeting, according to implied probabilities in overnight index swaps data this morning tracked by Bloomberg.

The Bank of Canada’s current overnight rate is 2.25 per cent. While the bank only moves the overnight rate in quarter-point increments, markets price in a much less rigid rate when setting bets on future policy rates.

Right now, traders are positioned for an overnight rate of 2.500 per cent by July 15. That implies the market is assigning a near 100 per cent chance of a rate hike by that date.

Traders are positioned for an overnight rate of 2.390 per cent for the June 10 policy meeting, implying roughly 50 per cent odds of a quarter point hike on that date.

The implied overnight rate for the bank’s last policy meeting of this year, on Dec. 9, is 2.921 per cent. That implies markets are pricing in almost three quarter-point rate hikes by the end of this year.

Market positioning in money markets for rate moves is constantly shifting, especially given the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties of the moment.

But this is a big shift from earlier this week. Consider that in the moments after the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday morning, markets were pricing in an overnight rate of only 2.494 per cent by this December. The shift is happening as traders significantly reduce bets for further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

There are economists, including David Rosenberg and Veronica Clark at Citi, who have been holding firm to their belief the fragile economy will result in Bank of Canada rate cuts later this year.

Bond traders are clearly in a different camp at the moment.

Canada’s two-year bond yield, sensitive to central bank policy, is up nearly 10 basis points this morning to its highest level since 2024.

03/20/26 08:58

Investors drive U.S. money market fund assets to records as war-related risk fears multiply

As the Iran conflict intensifies, the spike in oil prices and rising inflation fears are spurring investors to ditch stocks as too risky and shun traditional safe havens such as gold in favour of money market funds.

The result: assets in those ultra-short-term and ultrasafe Treasury funds are now hovering around US$8-trillion, according to calculations from providers such as the Investment Company Institute, JPMorgan Chase and Crane Data, which specializes in tracking money market flows. While their methodology varies and precise calculations range from US$7.8-trillion to US$8.1-trillion, the sources agree that assets have hit a record amid the conflict.

“When you have times of dislocation and times of fear, cash is the only thing that makes sense to a lot of people, because there’s the belief that you ’can’t lose’ by holding it,” said Malcolm Polley, director of strategic market analysis with Stratos Investment Management, a wealth management firm. He added that he is reassuring some of his clients that “the world is not coming to an end just yet.”

“This is the ’wait-and-see’ money coming from investors who are wary about what’s happening right now,” said Sweta Singh, founding partner at money management firm City Different Investments. The latest catalyst for the steady flow of assets into money market funds is the impact of soaring crude oil prices on the economy and inflation. Brent crude futures rose 1.2 per cent on Thursday to US$108.65 a barrel, after trading as much as 10-per-cent higher during the day.

“Gold, silver and currencies are increasingly being driven by oil” prices, said Steven Wieting, co-founder of CIO Group, a wealth management firm. “As all risk assets take on this uncertain path, dependent on oil, it is natural for cash to build on the sidelines.”

The longer prices linger at lofty levels, the greater toll they will take on everything from consumer spending to corporate earnings, market strategists are cautioning investors.

– Reuters

Read the full story here.

03/20/26 08:48

FedEx shares rise as investors cheer resilient demand, higher profit forecast

FedEx shares gained more than 6 per cent before the bell on Friday, after the package-delivery giant raised its full-year profit forecast and signalled steady shipping demand despite geopolitical tensions and surging fuel costs.

While the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has increased air freight rates and forced rerouting of flights, FedEx, considered a bellwether for global trade, said demand in the first two weeks of March tracked expectations for a continuation of third-quarter trends.

Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions could still feed through to shipping costs in the coming weeks. FedEx has said its fuel-surcharge mechanisms continue to absorb most of the impact, though management warned a further spike could soften demand.

CEO Raj Subramaniam said FedEx is “monitoring this extremely carefully,” noting the Middle East accounts for only a small portion of its business.

Analysts at JPMorgan said FedEx’s Express segment was the standout, with stronger yields, firmer U.S. domestic volume and continued cost takeout driving a jump in adjusted operating income and helping offset softness in freight.

Shares of European peer Deutsche Post DHL Group were up 2.2 per cent, while U.S. rival UPS rose 1.4 per cent.

Read the full story here.

– Reuters

03/20/26 08:43

Super Micro shares plunge as U.S. charges three, including co-founder, for smuggling AI chips to China

Super Micro shares sank 27 per cent on Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. The drop in premarket trading would erase nearly $5 billion from Super Micro’s $18.49 billion market value if the losses hold.

U.S. prosecutors did not name Super Micro – a major AI server builder using Nvidia’s chips – in the complaint. The company confirmed it was not named as a defendant in the case, it had cooperated with investigators. The Department of Justice has charged its co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, Taiwan-office sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang and contractor Ting-Wei Sun on allegations of a complex scheme to send U.S.-made servers via Taiwan to other countries in Southeast Asia. From there, they were swapped into unmarked boxes and sent onward to China.

The accused were charged with helping smuggle at least $2.5 billion of U.S. AI technology to China, with products worth more than half a billion dollars sent between April and mid-May 2025, the Justice Department said.

Super Micro has placed the employees on leave and ended its relationship with the contractor.

Read the full story here.

– Reuters

03/20/26 08:40

Top oil and gas stock picks for volatile times

– Scott Barlow

Scotiabank analyst Kevin Fisk offered top picks in oil and gas, including favourite stocks for both a rising and falling commodity markets.

“Top oil-weighted picks and defensive names to consider. In the oil weighted group, CVE, WCP, and OVV are our top picks. These companies have lower implied WTI prices than many of their peers, offer solid exposure to stronger oil price, have compelling operational catalysts, and, in CVE’s case, higher prices accelerated when its debt targets will be achieved. For investors looking for the names with the highest torque to oil prices we recommend SCR, IPCO, BTE, and ATH. Defensive oil weighted names include FRU and PSK. Top natural gas picks and defensive options. TPZ, SDE, PEY, and EXE are our top gas-weighted picks. TPZ provides ultra-high margin exposure to several of the best assets in the WCSB. SDE’s impressive Duvernay results make it our top growth name. PEY’s consistent execution, low-cost structure, and attractive dividend make it a core gas name to own. EXE’s attractive valuation and combination of upside torque and downside protection makes it our best idea in the US gas space. Note, TOU is the only North American natural gas producer with international gas price exposure in 2026. VET is unique in our coverage due to its sensitivity to elevated European natural gas prices and is the best option for investors seeking exposure to European natural gas.”

03/20/26 08:33

Unilever in talks to sell food business to McCormick

Unilever (UL-N) is in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick & Company (MKC-N), a potential deal that would unite the British company’s Hellmann’s and Knorr brands with the U.S. spice maker’s Cholula hot sauce.

London-listed Unilever said on Friday it had received an offer from McCormick, while McCormick confirmed it was engaged in discussions with Unilever regarding a potential strategic transaction involving the food business.

Shares in Unilever opened around 1 per cent higher.

The talks mark a potential acceleration of Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez’s plan to shift Unilever toward beauty and personal care categories following the spin-off of its ice cream business last year.

Unilever’s food business made up about a quarter of its total sales in 2025, generating more than €12.9-billion (US$14.91-billion) last year.

But the business faces headwinds from a move away from processed foods. Politicians, including U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, have warned about their health risks and while many consumers are turning to GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which mean people eat less.

Analysts at Barclays estimated the enterprise value of Unilever’s food division, which has been growing more slowly than the company’s overall business, at between €28-billion and €31-billion.

McCormick’s market capitalization is about US$14.5-billion, much smaller than the potential value of Unilever’s food business. Unilever’s market cap is about US$136-billion.

– Reuters

Read the full story here.

03/20/26 08:26

Amazon plans smartphone comeback more than a decade after Fire Phone flop, sources say

In 2014, Amazon (AMZN-Q) introduced its first smartphone, hoping to take on Apple and Samsung. Instead, the Fire Phone – overseen directly by founder Jeff Bezos – was scrapped in barely over a year, one of Amazon’s highest-profile flops.

Now, Amazon is dialling up a new phone.

The latest effort, known internally as “Transformer,” is being developed within its devices and services unit, according to four people familiar with the matter. The phone is seen as a potential mobile personalization device that can sync with home voice assistant Alexa and serve as a conduit to Amazon customers throughout the day, the people said.

The initiative is the newest chapter in a years-long effort to bring to market Bezos’ long-held vision of a ubiquitous voice-driven computing assistant akin to the voice-controlled computer in science fiction series Star Trek.

Bezos had envisioned a smartphone that had shopping at its core and could take on Apple (AAPL-Q) by offering shipping convenience and discounts through the Prime membership. Along the way, Amazon could gain a wealth of new data about users only available through mobile phones combined with purchase history and content preferences.

Amazon’s effort to develop a new smartphone has not been previously reported. Reuters could not determine some details, such as the anticipated price of the phone, the revenue Amazon hopes to generate, or the financial commitment Amazon has made to the project.

The timeline for Amazon’s Transformer project is also unclear, and the people cautioned it could be scrapped if the strategy shifts or due to financial concerns.

– Reuters

Read the full story here.

03/20/26 07:51

More upside ahead for LNG prices: Morgan Stanley analyst

– Scott Barlow

Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott weighed in on global natural gas supply and dramatically raised his near-term price forecasts.

“Missile strikes have damaged two of the 14 trains at the Ras Laffan LNG complex, tightening the market not just for ’26, but likely next several years. This significantly reduces 2027-28 oversupply risk and extends the duration of strong prices … We now assume a 2-month outage for the full Qatar and UAE export complex, up from 4-6 weeks prior. In addition, we now remove the supply from 2 trains at Ras Laffan through 2028 (QatarEnergy guidance for a “3-5 year outage”), reducing supply by ~12.8 mtpa over the period, and assume a later startup for North Field Expansion (now mid-2027). As a partial offset, we are also reducing our demand growth forecasts to reflect the impact of higher prices. These changes leave us with a large (~15 mt) supply shortfall in 2026, followed by a more balanced outlook in 2027-28 … While LNG prices have already risen since the start of the conflict, with the prompt (month-ahead) contract rallying from ~$11 to ~$24, we see risks still skewed to the upside over the balance of the year … We now forecast $30/mmbtu average JKM [Japan-Korea marker, the benchmark for Northeast Asia] for the balance of 2026, the upper end of our prior $25-30 range.”

03/20/26 07:45

Canadian dollar strengths against U.S. greenback

– S.R. Slobodian

The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart.

The day range on the loonie was 72.75 US cents to 72.93 US cents in early trading. The Canadian dollar was down about 0.34 per cent against the greenback over the past month.

The U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of currencies, rose 0.16 per cent to 99.39.

The euro slid 0.09 per cent to US$1.1578. The British pound declined 0.25 per cent to US$1.3397.

In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was last up at 4.298 per cent.

03/20/26 07:45

Oil prices steady as Canada, allies willing to join efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz

– S.R. Slobodian

Oil prices steadied as Canada, leading European countries ​and Japan offered to join efforts to ‌secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. outlined moves to boost oil supply.

Looking to curb soaring oil prices, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott ⁠Bessent ​said the U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil stranded on tankers, and said a further release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was possible.

Brent futures eased 0.55 per cent to US$108 a barrel, while West Texas ‌Intermediate (WTI) crude gave back 0.9 per cent to trade at US$94.60.

“The damage has ​been inflicted, and even if safe passage for tankers is somehow negotiated through Hormuz, reviving logistics fully fledged can take an awfully long time,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip ⁠Nova.

“Till then, any direct hit on export infrastructure or tanker routes could push prices sharply higher, while sustained diplomatic engagement ⁠may cap rallies and accelerate the unwinding of the war premium.”

In other commodities, spot gold rose ⁠0.6 per cent to US$4,674.82 ​an ounce, rebounding from a near two-month low hit in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 1.5 per cent to US$4,676.30.

03/20/26 07:45

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

– S.R. Slobodian

Global markets were muted as oil prices steadied and risk remained elevated with the expanding Middle East conflict reinforcing ‌inflation fears.

Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed down yesterday. TSX futures followed sentiment lower.

“Oil and gas prices are likely to remain biased to the upside, with high volatility leading to sharp swings in both directions,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “Uncertainty will keep market participants on edge.”

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.18 per cent. Britain’s FTSE 100 was gained 0.12, Germany’s DAX edged up 0.06 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.14 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.88 per cent.

Read more market updates from before the bell.

03/20/26 07:44

Wall Street futures slip as Iran war rages on

U.S. stock index futures slipped in choppy trading on Friday as the Iran war approached its fourth week, roiling energy markets and prompting investors to aggressively reprice bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

At 7:15 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 133 points, or 0.29 per cent, and S&P 500 E-minis were down 25.5 points, or 0.38 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 131.5 points, or 0.53 per cent.

The CBOE volatility index, sometimes referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, edged up 0.77 points at 24.83. Futures tracking the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index slipped 0.4 per cent.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow were on track to finish their fourth-straight week in the red, although a modest bounce-back in AI stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices and Micron have cushioned the fall on the Nasdaq.

All the three indexes also slipped below their 200-day moving average, a technical indicator reflecting long-term momentum, while the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 index briefly logged a 10 per cent drop from all-time highs earlier this week.

Super Micro Computer tumbled 26% after three people associated with the artificial intelligence server maker were charged with helping smuggle at least $2.5 billion of U.S. AI technology to China in violation of export laws.

Gains have been strong in energy stocks. The S&P 500 sector index is set for its thirteenth-straight week of gains as geopolitical events in Venezuela and the Middle East dominated much of the first quarter.

Energy stocks such as Halliburton and Cheniere Energy added over 1 per cent each on Friday.

Tegna gained 9.3 per cent after the Federal Communications Commission said it had approved the $3.54 billion sale of the local television station owner to Nexstar.

Amazon slipped 0.5 per cent. Reuters reported that the megacap introduced its first smartphone, hoping to take on Apple and Samsung.

– Reuters

03/20/26 07:29

Retail speculation among factors causing volatility in bullion

– Scott Barlow

BMO senior economist predicts a bumpy ride back to US$5,000 for gold.

“Gold plunged on Thursday, briefly dropping below US$4,600/oz after Iran exchanged airstrikes on key energy facilities with Israel and its Gulf neighbours. Since the war started, gold has lost over 10 per cent, erasing much of its year-to-date gains. Despite the escalating crisis, bullion is not benefitting from a typical flight to safety. What’s more, gold’s latest stumble took place even as the U.S. dollar backed off. With global energy prices poised to stay elevated, investors’ concerns around higher interest rates are trumping gold’s utility as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty. These fears were brought home this week following a flurry of monetary policy decisions with a decidedly hawkish tilt. Nearly all the major central banks held rates steady (there was one cut by Brazil and one hike by Australia), and markets are now pricing in the likelihood of broader rate hikes this year. Forecasting gold has become a tricky exercise in recent years as traditional drivers and correlations (i.e., real rates, risk appetite) have yielded to structural factors (central bank buying, debt concerns) and speculation by retail investors. But greater ease of access cuts both ways. Ultimately, we see prices returning above the $5,000-mark, though compared to last year’s linear march upward, gold faces a bumpier road in 2026.”

03/20/26 07:18

Why LNG price volatility has more staying power

– Scott Barlow

Citi analyst Spiro Dounis assesses the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East and its effects on commodity markets.

“Still no rest for energy markets as several oil & gas assets have been targeted in attacks in the Middle East. We don’t see an end to the volatility any time soon; Citi’s Commodity team has a base case of another 4-6 weeks of disruptions – their updated forecast calls for Brent to rally to $110-$120/bbl near-term with WTI expected to average $78/bbl in 2026. While we don’t see outsized direct commodity exposure across our coverage, a higher price environment is broadly a tailwind for Midstream, trending up ~1.9 per cent so far this week. LNG exporters are the outlier with names such as VG having meaningful near-term spread exposure. With Reuters reporting (19-Mar-26) that 17 per cent of Qatar LNG’s capacity is likely to remain offline for 3-5 years, global natgas price volatility could have even more staying power. In short, we see increasing value in the stability of US export capacity.”

The term “spread exposure” describes Venture Global Inc.’s ability to benefit from the difference between U.S. and global LNG prices.

03/20/26 07:08

These industrial equipment stocks are benefiting from data centre buildout

– Scott Barlow

RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Fielding highlighted the industrial equipment winners from the data centre buildout.

“Our base case is 15 per cent+ per annum growth, but recent trends could suggest further upside … Positioned for continued 15 per cent+ growth and could be “++”: We continue to expect data centres to grow at 15 per cent+ pa over the mid-term (in line with corporate mid-term commentary generally ranging from 10-17 per cent). However, Datacenter segment growth has averaged at more like ~50 per cent in 2025 and ~35 per cent in 2024 and Vertiv is guiding for close to 30 per cent growth in 2026. As such, the “+” in “15 per cent+” could be significant. Capex updates from the hyperscalers also continue to support a similar trend, with ~60 per cent growth in capex spend expected in 2026E (after ~60 per cent growth in 2025 and in 2024) … Datacenter opportunity continues to grow, estimated at $220bn p.a. for Electricals/HVAC over 2026E-30E: We update our analysis from 2024 of the content opportunity in datacenters, carrying out a component-by-component costing of a theoretical 400MW datacenter. Out of a total of ~$11bn cost, we estimate 29% is relevant to the electrical equipment / capital goods space driving an implied ~$220bn per annum addressable equipment market over the next 5 years … Combining the attractive fundamentals of the datacenter space, wider business drivers and valuation, our preferred names are Vertiv, Eaton, nVent, and Schneider. These are amongst the most-exposed to the datacenter segment (~85 per cent for Vertiv, 25 per cent for Eaton and nVent and ~22 per cent for Schneider), which largely underpins their growth and earnings expansion. For Schneider we upgrade our 5-year sales CAGR to 9 per cent alongside this report (vs 6 per cent previously).”

03/20/26 06:57

ECB, BoE could hike rates as early as April on inflation pressures, brokerages say

Major global brokerages see a higher likelihood of the European Central Bank and Bank of England delivering rate hikes, potentially as early as April, after policy-makers warned that the Middle East war is driving renewed inflation risks.

Both central banks kept borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday and signalled they were closely monitoring the impact of surging oil prices on growth and inflation, stressing they stand “ready to act” to contain risks from the war.

Europe remains particularly vulnerable, given its heavy reliance on imported energy and the region’s still-fragile inflation backdrop.

Barclays and J.P. Morgan expect a rate hike in the ECB’s April policy meeting. The two also forecast a further increase in June and July, respectively.

Both Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank expect a 25-basis-point (bp) hike each in June and September.

This is a sharp shift from their previous forecasts for rates to remain on hold this year, and comes as ECB policy-makers are expected to discuss hikes in the coming months, with the Iran war threatening to push up inflation in the euro zone.

J.P. Morgan expects the BoE to hike rates by 25 bps each in April and July, changing its stance of no changes this year, after the central bank turned hawkish.

The BoE kept the bank rate steady at 3.75 per cent on Thursday and said inflation could climb to around 3.5 per cent, above its 2-per-cent target, over the next two quarters.

– Reuters

Read the full story here.

03/20/26 06:52

TSX futures inch lower as Middle East tensions, volatile oil keep markets on edge

Futures linked to Canada’s benchmark index ticked lower on Friday, leaving it poised for a third straight weekly decline, as cautious investors continued to monitor an escalating Middle East conflict that has pushed oil prices to record highs.

June futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were down 0.5 per cent as of 06:48 a.m. ET, while futures tracking Wall Street’s main indexes also edged lower.

The U.S. is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure the country into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an Axios report said, even as Israel and Iran traded fresh attacks on Friday.

Leading European nations, Japan and Canada have issued a joint statement that they are ready to join efforts to secure safe passage for shipping through the crucial waterway, as supply disruptions send crude oil and natural gas prices soaring.

Benchmark Brent crude has jumped over 50 per cent since the start of the conflict. While this jump has lifted Canadian energy stocks more than 38 per cent this year, Canada remains highly sensitive to oil-market swings because the commodity is one of the country’s largest exports.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite Index on Thursday closed down at its lowest level since January 30, extending its total decline to over 7% since the start of the Iran war.

Metal prices, also important for Canada’s resource-heavy stock index, were mixed, with gold muted and silver down about 2 per cent.

In a week packed with central bank meetings, most policymakers, including at the Bank of Canada, opted to hold interest rates steady, but reiterated they remained prepared to hike rates if inflation pressures re-emerged.

Among individual stocks, eyes will be on Interfor Corp , with CIBC raising the lumber producer’s rating to “neutral” from “underperform,” and dealership operator AutoCanada, whose rating the brokerage downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform.”

– Reuters

03/20/26 05:51

Gas field strikes threaten to worsen Asian energy woes from Iran war

– James Griffiths

Twin strikes by Israel and Iran on natural gas facilities in the Gulf rocked global markets this week, with the shocks felt worse in Asia, where energy supplies have already been disrupted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Asia is heavily dependent on the Gulf for supplies of oil and gas, with some countries in the region sourcing as much as 90 per cent of their energy from countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

The shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key international waterway controlled by Iran, has already caused chaos in many Asian countries, with governments rationing fuel usage, limiting civil servants to a four-day week and encouraging others to work from home. Even China, better insulated than most countries in the region, is limiting exports of jet fuel, diesel and fertilizers.

More extreme measures may have to be adopted in coming weeks after Israel bombed Iranian facilities on the South Pars natural gas field Wednesday, prompting retaliatory strikes by Tehran on a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, and threats of further attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“The main question has now shifted from how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to how much LNG capacity has been damaged and how long it will take to bring it back online,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau, global research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, wrote this week.

Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said the region “is very exposed to both crude oil and LNG coming out of the Gulf.

“And while most economies in Asia have pretty strong strategic reserves of oil, the LNG coverage is much shallower,” he said.

Read the full story here.

03/20/26 05:00

Thursday markets recap: Major indexes end lower but off session lows amid volatile energy prices

Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, as worries about inflation stemming from soaring oil prices left investors pessimistic about the potential ⁠for ​future interest rate cuts at the world’s major central banks.

The S&P 500 declined 0.27 per cent to end the session at 6,606.49 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.28 per cent to 22,090.69 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.44 per cent to 46,021.43 points.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow were below their 200-day ‌moving averages, underscoring a loss of momentum in the market.

Trading was volatile in oil markets as Iran attacked ⁠energy targets overnight ​in the Middle East. Brent futures settled at US$108.65 a barrel, up US$1.27, or 1.18 per cent. Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed to ​a high of US$119.13, close to the 3½-year peak touched on March ‌9. U.S. crude settled at US$96.14 and then fell toward US$94, which helped equity markets come off their lows.

The S&P/TSX composite index ended down 1.42 per cent at 31,854.98, its lowest level since February, bringing the index’s total decline to over 7 per cent since the start of the Iran war. The materials sector fell ​by more than 5 per cent ‌to its lowest level this year. Energy stocks rose 3.3 per cent.

⁠Spot gold prices fell 3.2 per cent to US$4,657 per ounce.

U.S. and Canadian Treasury yields jumped at the front end of the curve, as investors were pricing out future Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. and Canada two-year yields were up four to eight basis points.

– Globe staff, wires