Stocks rise and oil dips on hopes of 15-point Iran peace plan

The price of oil has dipped and Asian and European stock markets have moved higher after reports that Donald Trump has sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran, amid hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Positive sentiment may also have been boosted by reports that Iran had announced it was permitting “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz, in a move that could help to reopen the vital shipping lane.

Oil prices had fallen by 4% in the early hours of Wednesday, with brent crude sinking below $100 (£75) a barrel as trading was influenced by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply.

Stock markets in Asia moved higher in morning trading. Japan’s Nikkei rose by 2.9%, while the S&P BSE Sensex in India was almost 2% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was just under 1% up.

European markets also rose. The FTSE 100 in London was up by almost 1%, while Germany’s Dax was trading 1.6% higher and France’s Cac 40 climbed by 1.4%.

However, oil prices later started to climb again to approximately $100 amid mixed signals about the status of negotiations between the US and Iran, after Tehran denied that any talks had taken place since the start of the bombing campaign.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, located at its southern border, has all but halted global shipments of oil and gas in a channel through which 20% of global supplies normally transit, sparking what the International Energy Agency has called the largest ever disruption to oil supply.

More than 30 countries including the United Arab Emirates, the UK, France, Germany, Canada and Australia have signed a joint statement agreeing to work on “appropriate efforts” to safeguard the waterway.

However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry has told the UN security council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels – defined as those not taking part in or supporting “acts of aggression against Iran” – are permitted to pass through the strait.

A third of the world’s fertilisers also pass through the waterway, prompting a top official at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to warn that disruption to fertiliser supplies is threatening global food security as a result of the impact on food production.

“Fertilisers are the number one issue of concern today. If there is no more fertiliser, there is an impact on quantities but also on prices,” the WTO’s deputy director-general, Jean-Marie Paugam, told Agence France-Presse. “The effect compounds the following year: harvests shrink and prices rise.”

Volatility in global markets since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has also affected the gold price, traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times.

The precious metal’s historic run – where it moved above $5,000 an ounce for the first time in January – appears to have come to an end since the outbreak of the Iran conflict. After holding steady in the first days of the war, gold has since fallen by approximately 13% to about $4,460, calling into question the metal’s traditional role as a financial safety net.

Separately, the boss of the world’s largest asset manager said a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to a rise in oil prices to $150 a barrel that would trigger a global recession.

Larry Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, which controls assets worth $14tn (£10.4tn), told the BBC that if Iran “remains a threat” and oil prices remain elevated there would be “profound implications” for the global economy.