Wall Street is trying to grind out a second straight positive session on Monday, but even a modest gain will not be enough to win over Morgan Stanley. Strategist Michael Wilson said in a note to clients Monday that the 5,500 level on the S & P 500 should create a “tradable rally” for stocks, but that does not mean it will be long-lasting. The index was trading at around 5,650 on Monday. “The more important question is whether such a rally is likely to extend into something more durable and mark the end of the volatility witnessed year to date. The short answer is, probably not,” Wilson said. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 is aiming for a second-straight positive session. Technical indicators support Wilson’s argument that this rally may be on shaky ground. The strategist pointed out that the S & P 500 , Nasdaq-100 , Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 1000 Value indexes are all trading below their 200-day moving averages, which suggests the rebound may be tough to sustain. “At a minimum, this kind of technical damage will take time to repair, even if it doesn’t lead to more price degradation at the index level,” Wilson said. The early signs Monday do not exactly point to a strong rebound, either. The S & P 500 was up around 0.1% in midday trading , while the Nasdaq Composite was down about 0.4%. One piece of good news is that even if the losses get worse, this may be a good place for investors to jump in from a risk-reward perspective. RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina did lower her “bear case” target for the S & P 500, but it was to 5,500 from 5,775, meaning full-year losses from here would be limited. “We think it is a reasonable way to think about the year-end 2025 level for the S & P 500 if the index breaks significantly below recent lows and the stock market experiences a growth scare,” Calvasina said in a note to clients Monday.
The stock market is trying to build on Friday’s rally. Morgan Stanley doesn’t trust it
Mar 17, 2025
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