Where Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge goes next can help determine the future path of the stock market, according to Canaccord Genuity. The Cboe Volatility Index , or VIX, tracks the market’s expectation for — you guessed it — volatility over the next month. In recent days, the VIX has fallen to around 15. That’s a huge drop from its sharp jump seen during the global market rout on Aug. 5, when the VIX soared as high as 65 for the first time since the pandemic market plunge in March 2020. @VX.1 mountain 2024-08-01 The VIX in August Now, Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge said a VIX move below 14 can signal there’s more steam left in the recovery rally that has followed the Aug. 5 drop in U.S. stocks. The S & P 500 could rise to test the July 16 high and potentially even score new all-time records. The S & P 500 in late day trading Sednesday was about 1% below its mid-July all-time closing high. But a period of turmoil in February 2018 known as “Volmageddon” has scarred Roberge, who’s worried that if today’s market follows a similar path, there could be another drop coming. In early 2018, he noted that a VIX reading of 15 proved to be a resistance level for stocks that led to only a short-lived top in the market. So, which of these diverging paths does Roberge think the market will tread? Investors may have to wait until the August jobs report comes out on Friday September 6 to find out. “Unfortunately, which outcome takes place may only be known when the next nonfarm payroll report is published,” Roberge told clients.
The VIX level that can help chart the path for where the stock market goes next
Aug 21, 2024
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