Traders’ most widely cited measure of fear is currently pointing to cause for confidence, according to Wall Street veteran Nick Colas. The Cboe Volatility Index , an options-based measure of expected market gyrations, has drifted below its long-term average after previously spiking, which Colas said in his overnight market note Monday is often an attractive time to buy stocks. Specifically, he pointed out that the fear gauge closed at 27.9 on March 10, or more than one standard deviation above its long-term average of 19.5. That close, he said, “proved to be a good entry point to buy the S & P 500 .” .VIX 3M line VIX movements “Even though US large caps wobbled for a few days after, the index is now 2.7 percent higher,” added Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “This is exactly what should happen. Investors and traders who buy unusual levels of uncertainty, expressed as expected stock price volatility (i.e., what the VIX measures), expect to see a near term gain for their troubles.” In more recent moves, the VIX closed at around 17.5 on Monday and edged down even more in Tuesday trading. Should the index hold below 19.5, it will send a message that the recent volatility, induced by President Donald Trump ‘s tariffs plans and worries about economic growth , has been largely priced into market activity, Colas said. “It’s too early to declare victory over policy-related uncertainty and the stock market volatility it creates, but today was a big step in the right direction,” he wrote. “Simply put, the bulls needed not just an outsized rally but also the decline in the VIX to lay the groundwork for further gains.” While the near-term figure he said to watch on the VIX is 27.3, Colas noted that a move past 35.1, or two standard deviations above the norm, would be an even stronger short-term buy signal. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Tracking this gauge allows you to trade the stock market roller coaster perfectly
Mar 25, 2025
