After a rough start to the year, President Donald Trump is going to do what he can to get the stock market back on track, according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. The S & P 500 has lost about 3.7% so far in 2025 as investors have been rattled over fickle and potentially draconian trade policy and the effect it could have on consumers and companies. Though Trump during his first term had used market performance as a yardstick for progress, he has seemed less preoccupied with Wall Street this time around. That could change with the president making his “liberation day” announcement on tariffs , said Lee, who is the firm’s head of research. In his assessment, Lee set out six reasons why Trump will pay greater attention to stocks and push for a rally after the tariff announcement: To serve as a “public validation” of the tariff position To reverse downbeat approval rating, consumer and manufacturer surveys To avoid the inevitable recession that a market crash would trigger To create an environment “to support the reshoring of manufacturing, underscoring the necessity for stable capital markets” To attract more money to property, plants and equipment investment To get the U.S. credit rating back to top-tier “The central question for investors is how does President Trump want the market to react” to the tariff announcement, Lee wrote. “Despite claims to the contrary, evidence strongly indicates Trump does care about stock market performance.” .SPX YTD line S & P 500 performance Stocks were trading higher and bond yields advanced ahead of the 4 p.m. tariff announcement in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. While moves have been volatile in both directions, the year has seen a tough slog for stocks but a rush to bonds. Treasury yields have tumbled since Trump’s inauguration, meeting one benchmark the administration had staked out early, namely to lower borrowing costs. “Investor perceptions of Trump differ significantly between bond and stock markets, possibly due to political affiliations within these groups. Notably, bond markets lean Republican, whereas stock markets — and even more intensely hedge funds — lean Democratic,” Lee said. “This division could explain the differential reactions to tariff-related news between these markets.” As stocks have slumped, the 10-year Treasury is around its lowest level since early December 2024.
Trump will follow tariff announcement with push to get stocks higher, Tom Lee says
Apr 2, 2025
