U.S. Stock Market — S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq — will have a crucial ahead of the much-awaited Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street investors are focused on how divided policymakers are over an expected interest-rate cut and what Chair Jerome Powell signals about the path ahead. Five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition or skepticism about further easing, while three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors favor a cut.
Jeremiah Buckley, equities portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, said the December meeting does not matter much for markets in the long term. “Certainly, there could be some short-term volatility, but what they do over the first half of 2026, I think, matters more than December,” he added. Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index has risen 16.6 per cent so far this year. Tony Roth, CIO, Wilmington Trust, does not expect stocks to move much if the Fed delivers a cut.
“The Fed move is really baked in at this point. It’s really going to be just about the Fed guidance,” Roth said. “And I think they’re going to be pretty cautious. They’re going to talk about being data dependent.” Complicating the Fed’s deliberations is a backlog of economic data. The 43-day government shutdown, the longest in history, delayed the November employment print until December 16, after policymakers meet. The unemployment rate for October will remain unknown as the shutdown prevented the collection of data for the household survey used to calculate it.
Although somewhat dated, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data, due December 9, would give markets a glimpse into October’s labor trends – especially layoffs – amid the current low-hiring, low-firing environment.
Some observers don’t believe the odds of a cut are as high as the markets imply, and are more interested in Powell’s statements and how close the policy vote is.
“We don’t think that anything is definite yet,” said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. “So, I definitely think the market is underpricing the risk that the Fed chooses not to cut at the December meeting.”
Seif said what would be interesting “particularly in the case of a cut, is how much dissent there is.” With four regional presidents rotating off, their stance will reveal how much independence they intend to assert and the pressure they’ll put on the Fed.
“Because it really signals not just what they’re willing to do against Chair Powell, but what they’re willing to do against Powell’s successor as chair. We’re really trying to figure out how much the model at the Fed is changing into a much simpler situation with one person, one vote.”
FAQs
Q1. What are key indexes of U.S. Stock Market?
A1. U.S. Stock Market indexes are S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
Q2. When is U.S. Fed meeting scheduled?
A2. U.S. Fed meeting is scheduled on December 9 – December 10.
