Investing.com — The upcoming US election, while relevant, may not hold as much importance for the overall equity market as some might expect, a recent survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets reveals.
“The event is relevant to US equity markets, but perhaps less so than some market participants may believe,” the RBC team noted, citing results of the survey which polled 116 analysts across various sectors. The survey was conducted from Sept. 11 through Sept. 20.
For many sectors, the relevance of the election remains neutral to slightly positive, especially when compared to broader economic factors.
A Republican sweep, particularly one led by former President Trump, is seen as modestly bullish.
According to RBC, sectors like Energy and Financials stand to benefit the most under such a scenario, while a Democratic sweep, led by Vice President Harris, presents a more bearish outlook, though these views are mild.
Sector-wise, Industrials, Financials, and Utilities rank the highest in terms of relevance in the US, while other sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology show only neutral to mixed views.
Outside the US, the election’s impact appears even more subdued, with analysts from regions like Australia and Europe showing limited concern over the outcome.
“Across all regions, 51% said the event was relevant (44%) or very relevant (7%). It’s worth noting that the overall relevancy score for the US, even though positive, was still rather mild coming in at 0.7,” RBC’s note states.
Overall, RBC notes that uncertainty surrounding the election could lead to short-term volatility in the market. Specifically, a Trump win is viewed as a potential short-term positive for stocks, while a Democratic sweep could have a short-term negative impact.
However, the firm emphasizes that the market’s main concern is simply “getting past the event so companies and investors know what they are dealing with.”
