Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Equity analysts at National Bank Financial believe the escalation of the global trade war and market uncertainty continue to a positive outlook for precious metal prices and valuations.
In a research report released Wednesday previewing first-quarter earnings season, the group updated estimates across their coverage universe to reflects the “strong” quarter-over-quarter increase in gold and silver prices, rising 7.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.
“We expect upward pressures on cash costs quarter-over-quarter given the back-half weighted production for many producers, as well as higher AISC where stripping campaigns are underway in H1/25,” the analysts said. “The focus of Q1/25 will likely be continued efforts on cost control and the impact of higher royalties, taxes and share based-comp as the gold price continues to move higher. We also expect commentary around the impact of tariffs on opex and capex, especially for U.S. producers and projects, with the indirect impacts yet to be realized. With elevated gold prices supporting the top line, we are looking for management commentary around capital allocation, and expect the overall financial leverage of the sector to ease as debt is repaid with some of the expected strong cash flows. By our estimates, Q1/25 marks the highest and fifth consecutive quarter of rising FCF per GEO sold – a trend expected to continue into mid-2025 and potentially beyond.”
“We outline material deviations from Consensus with respect to Q1/25 financial results. At the time of writing, our estimates are materially higher than Consensus for Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO), Newmont (NGT.TO) and Lundin Gold (LUG.TO). Our financial estimates for the quarter are materially lower than Consensus for B2Gold (BTO.TO) and Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.TO).”
With their forecast adjustments, the analysts made a group of target price adjustments to stocks in their coverage universe and confirmed their top picks ahead of earnings season. They are:
Seniors
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) with a $25 target, rising from $23. The average target on the Street is $22.08, according to LSEG data.
- Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-T, “outperform”) with a $52.50 target (unchanged). Average: $42.99.
Intermediates/Juniors
- Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T, “outperform”) with a $18.75 target, down from $19.75. Average: $19.31.
- G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T, “outperform” with a $24 target (unchanged). Average: $21.04.
- IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T, “outperform”) with a $15 target (unchanged). Average: $12.84.
Royalty Companies
- Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR-T, “outperform”) with a $38 target, up from $35.50. Average: $32.28.
For senior producers, analyst Shane Nagle raised his target for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “outperform”) to $215 from $195, while Mike Parkin increased his target for Newmont Corp. (NGT-T, “sector perform”) to $94 from $86. The averages are $163.57 and $96, respectively.
“Companies with target price changes of 10 per cent or more include: Eldorado Gold (up 13 per cent), Lundin Gold (up 11 per cent), Sandstorm Gold (up 11 per cent), SSR Mining (up 11 per cent), Agnico Eagle (up 10 per cent), and Royal Gold (up 10 per cent),” the analysts added.
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When Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) reports its first-quarter financial results on May 8, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects to see earnings per share growth driven by “positive” same-store sales gains even though the macroeconomic volatility remains a headwind.
“We model Q1/25 Retail excluding Petroleum revenue growth, reflecting positive sssg in CTR [Canadian Tire retail], Mark’s and SportChek,” he said. “Management had expressed optimism regarding its early Q1/25 performance. Our understanding is that retail trends have remained solid, although management has indicated that ongoing tariff threats have impacted consumer confidence.
“Data from Statistics Canada indicates that retail sales in January 2025 weighted to: (i) CTR was flattish year-over-year, (ii) Mark’s increased by 6.7 per cent year-over-year and (iii) SportChek decreased by 2.1 per cent year-over-year. We understand that January is the smallest month in a seasonally light quarter. Our analysis of weather data indicates higher year-over-year snowfall and lower year-over-year temperatures; we expect this to be supportive to CTC’s winter categories. Our review of delinquency data for Glacier Credit Card Trust indicates continued consumer pressure, particularly in the 90+ days delinquency rate. Accordingly, we have reduced our estimates for CTFS.”
Mr. Shreedhar is currently projecting EPS of $1.49 for the quarter, exceeding the Street’s expectation by 9 cents and up 11 cents from the same period in fiscal 2024. He attributes that 8.4-per-cent year-over-year growth to “positive sssg at all banners, lower interest expense, and share repurchases, partly offset by Retail excluding Petroleum gross margin contraction, SG&A deleverage and a higher tax rate.”
After trimming his revenue and earnings expectations through 2026 to reflect the more difficult consumer climate, the analyst reduced his target for Canadian Tire shares to $171 from $174, maintaining a “sector perform” recommendation. The current average is $160.09.
“Given soft consumer demand and uneven operating performance, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,” he concluded.
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Citi analyst Paul Lejuez thinks Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) has a “relatively favorable positioning in the new tariff world.”
On Wednesday, he opened a “30-day positive catalyst watch” for the Montreal-based clothing manufacturer ahead of the April 29 release of its first-quarter financial results, predicting an earnings beat and “a positive tone” from management.
“We believe GIL is well-positioned as the low-cost provider of printwear/basics, with mostly Honduras based manufacturing operations,” said Mr. Lejuez. “Given Asian countries are potentially subject to higher reciprocal tariff rates vs Honduras at 10 per cent, we believe GIL can capture market share as many customers look to find near-shore production (moving away from China/Asia). We expect management to be constructive about what tariffs mean for business long-term. With shares down 24 per cent from its February high and 8 per cent since 4/2, we believe the market is overlooking GIL as a winner in the new tariff landscape. We believe the 1Q earnings call provides an opportunity to remind the market of its favorable positioning and resilient model.”
The analyst did trimmed his earnings per share forecast for the quarter by 2 US cents to 58 US cents, which is a penny ahead of the Street’s projection, pointing to lower-than-anticipated Hosiery & Underwear sales.
“We believe we were not conservative enough as GIL is lapping a difficult comparison in 1Q from liquidating UAA-related product,” he added. “We are also taking a more conservative view to our F25 estimates given the uncertain macro backdrop. Ultimately, we believe that GIL is relatively well-positioned when it comes to tariffs, however vendors are likely going to take a conservative approach to inventory this year. We are lowering our F25 sales estimate from up 5.3 per cent to up 4.2 per cent to reflect slightly softer demand. We believe that GIL will be able to mitigate most of its tariff impact but not all. We are lowering our F25 GM [gross margins] estimate from up 60 basis points to up 30 bps. Our F25 EPS estimate goes from $3.57 to $3.47 vs guidance of $3.38-3.58 and consensus of $3.48..
Reiterating his “buy” recommendation for Gildan shares, Mr. Lejuez trimmed his target to US$60 from US$62 to reflect his revised estimates. The current average is US$60.30.
“GIL is a leader in the ‘imprintable’ activewear market and has developed a solid innerwear (underwear and hosiery) business,” he added. “GIL is a clear leader as the low-cost producer, which enables the company to pivot and win private label business as mass merchants move away from branded products. The company has made several strategic decisions that position them well over the next several years (even beyond F22) to further take market share in the markets they play in. We believe this potential is not yet fully reflected in consensus numbers.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison dropped his target to US$56 from US$65 with a “buy” rating.
“We view Gildan’s recent pullback as a dislocation of value on an industry leader with a solid balance sheet/track record of positive FCF,” said Mr. Morrison. “We believe in the event of a forthcoming downturn in demand, that Gildan can not only manage its tariff exposure but also widen its cost advantage/accelerate market share gains in key verticals and emerge with greater potential future earnings power.”
He added: “We believe the pullback is pricing in a material decline in Gildan’s 2025/2026 EPS, while disregarding its proven FCF profile, industry leading cost structure, and the potential to widen its cost advantage in the current economic uncertainty. While this may lead to earnings revisions and even a push-out of its 2027 financial targets, we remain comfortable they are achievable in time and view this dislocation as a compelling risk/ reward opportunity for an industry leader.”
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Heading into earnings season for Canada’s real estate sector, Raymond James analyst Brad Sturges warns near-term volatility will likely continue as global trade turbulence persists.
“That said, we believe that if there is a successful economic trade resolution between the U.S. and Canada that eliminates the threat of tariffs and minimizes the potential negative impact to the Canadian economy and to underlying leasing demand fundamentals across most Canadian property sectors could act as a material positive catalyst and support a greater recovery in P/AFFO multiples broadly across for the Canadian REIT sector,” he said. “We also expect that the upcoming Canadian Federal Election to be held at the end of April can provide greater clarity for investors with respect to the Canadian political landscape.
“Our preferred Canadian property sector rankings are adjusted to: 1) Canadian MFR; 2) industrial; 3) retail shopping centres; 4) international residential; 5) storage; and 6) office. We believe Canadian retail REITs screen well for momentum, defense, and income. Further, TSX-listed international residential REITs screen well for event-driven opportunities, and Canadian MFR, industrial, and storage sectors for value.”
In a research report released before the bell, Mr. Sturges is forecasting adjusted funds from operations per unit growth in the low single-digit range year-over-year with storage, industrial and multi-family residential REITS likely to outperform. He now sees a “greater focus on capital preservation, improving balance sheet strength and unit buyback activity funded from executed non-core asset dispositions.”
“We generally expect the majority of Canadian REIT/REOCs to maintain a greater focus on capital preservation and further reducing outstanding debt levels in light of the uncertain Canadian macroeconomic environment and a possible slowdown in Canadian leasing demand fundamentals,” he said. “Given the wide NAV/unit discounts experienced broadly across the sector, we expect that Canadian REITs with active non-core asset disposition programs could prioritize its capital reinvestment allocations towards unit buybacks under existing NCIB programs. Notably, according to INK Research, 10 Canadian REIT/REOCs were active under their respective NCIB programs in 1Q25, with several Canadian MFR REITs that include InterRent, Minto, Boardwalk, and CAPREIT all employing relatively more active unit buyback programs during 1Q25.
“The average NAV estimate discount for covered Canadian REIT/REOCs is forecasted at 27 per cent, which implies an average 110 basis points spread between implied trading cap rates, and average applied cap rates utilized to determine respective NAV/unit estimates across our coverage universe. While we acknowledge that Canadian retail REITs have been the preferred stocks for defensive-minded investors, we argue that the larger-cap Canadian industrial REITs also feature similar and/or better defensive, growth and value investment characteristics. … We highlight Granite, DIR, and Flagship, as TSX-listed REITs with low NAV sensitivities, above-average spreads between implied and applied NAV cap rates, above-average AFFO/unit CAGRs (’24A-26E) underpinned by embedded rent MTM growth prospects within respective global industrial portfolios, and below-average P/AFFO multiples.”
Mr. Sturges made a trio of rating revisions on Wednesday. They are:
* Choice Properties REIT (CHP.UN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $16 target (unchanged). The average is $15.56.
Analyst: “Supported by the defensive nature of Choice’s long-term duration, high credit-quality cash flows, Choice has significantly outperformed the Canadian REIT sector on a total return basis in 2025 year-to-date. As a result, Choice trades at the highest P/AFFO multiple within the Canadian retail REIT subsector, while also trading at the smallest NAV/unit discount within our coverage universe. While we believe the defensive positioning of Choice’s high-quality Canadian commercial portfolio can continue to provide attractive downside protection, we suggest Choice’s total return upside could be relatively more limited in a broader recovery scenario if potential macroeconomic risks are removed.”
* Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” with a $17 target (unchanged). Average: $15.94.
Analyst: “Supported by the defensive nature of Crombie’s long-term duration, high credit-quality cash flows, Crombie has also significantly outperformed the Canadian REIT sector on a total return basis in 2025 year-to-date. That said, we still believe Crombie remains attractively valued, trading at a below average P/AFFO multiple valuation versus its Canadian retail peers, and could remain an attractive investment opportunity for those income investors seeking to maintain a defensive posture in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. We believe Crombie could be a distribution increase candidate at some point later this year given its 2025 estimated AFFO payout ratio is forecasted to be trending below 80 per cent.”
* Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN-T) to “strong buy” from “outperform” with a $13.50 target, down from $14.50. Average: $14.43.
Analyst: “Along with the broader Canadian industrial REIT sector, DIR has relatively underperformed on a total return basis in 2025 year-to-date, after experiencing a further P/AFFO multiple contraction. Despite investors fears with respect to the potential impact from a prolonged trade war between Canada and the US, we argue that DIR screens well for low NAV/unit sensitivity to cap rate and NOI input assumptions, combined with a significant spread between DIR’s implied trading cap rates, and its applied cap rate to determine its NAV/unit estimate. Further, we believe DIR’s focus on small-to mid-bay urban infill industrial real estate can benefit from resilient leasing demand fundamentals, while the REIT also benefits from a diversified industrial tenant base. We note that DIR is forecasted an above-average AFFO/unit CAGR [compound annual growth rate] (’24A-’26E) of 9 per cent, while trading at a historically low P/AFFO multiple of only 11 times. Finally, we believe that a new CAD-US free trade agreement could support a significant recovery in DIR’s P/AFFO multiple valuation, while other potential positive catalysts could include the REIT’s external asset manager, Dream Unlimited (DRM), securing a new JV partnership within Europe that could validate 36 per cent of DIR’s global industrial portfolio fair value.”
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TD Cowen analyst John Mould sees Capital Power Corp.’s (CPX-T) recent $3-billion acquisition of two gas-fired power plants located in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey– Maryland Interconnection from LS Power adding scale in a key market for data centre-driven load growth at “attractive accretion and valuation metrics.”
He resumed coverage of the Edmonton-based power producer following the completion of a $517-million bought deal equity offering. It also issued 3.46 million shares to Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) througha private placement, raising an additional $150-million.
“By raising additional equity on top of its December 2024 offering, CPX was able to execute on a larger transaction than we might have anticipated, and at arguably attractive valuation metrics,” he said. “This gives CPX exposure to the most important U.S. market for data centre-driven load growth (PJM) while adding diversification; no single market will be over 30 per cent of CPX’s net capacity.
“This is a sizable transaction for CPX, increasing its net capacity and EV by 22 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively. The U.S. will represent 57 per cent of net capacity (previously 48 per cent), with PJM comprising 18 per cent. Alberta remains CPX’s largest single market at 28 per cent (previously 35 per cent).”
While he sees the deal comparing “very favourably with an accretion range of 6-8 per cent for previous gas-fired acquisitions,” Mr. Mould trimmed his target for Capital Power shares to $66 from $70, keeping a “buy” rating, to reflect lower valuation multiples to gas-fired and renewable to account for “the potential for broader economic headwinds and the lower transaction valuation.”
“We believe our Buy rating on Capital Power is supported by a growing need for reliable electricity in its core markets, strong competitive positioning in Alberta’s wholesale power market, and CPX’s development track record,” he concluded. “The company’s natural-gas repowering initiative at Genesee 1+2 is expected to produce the most efficient combined-cycle units in Canada; the company was off-coal as of Q2/24. CPX has also demonstrated its ability to complement its fleet with additional renewable/thermal power development projects. We also believe the company has built a strong track record of acquiring mid-life gasfired assets and adding value via recontracting or asset enhancements. We anticipate that secured growth initiatives will support CPX’s target of 6-per-cent annual dividend growth through 2025, further diversify its operations, and complement the company’s high-quality Alberta portfolio.”
Elsewhere, BMO Nesbitt Burns’ Ben Pham raised Capital Power to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $64 target.
Others making target changes include:
* RBC’s Maurice Choy lowered his target to $65 from $68 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We believe CPX’s interests in entering the PJM market and expanding in the U.S. were well-telegraphed, and we favourably view management’s resolute approach in swiftly financing the transaction while maintaining its investment grade credit rating,” e said. “Amid the ongoing market uncertainty, investors will be keen to monitor how changes in PJM energy and capacity market prices will impact the merchant facilities’ EBITDA (unlike CPX’s past contracted facility acquisitions). For us, we favourably view the secular trends that underpin our positive long-term outlook for power demand growth across North America, as well as the company’s solid 17-19-per-cent AFFO/share accretion forecasts.”
* Scotia’s Robert Hope to $64 from $69 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“This transaction marks CPX’s entry into the PJM Interconnection, the largest North American power market, significantly diversifying its geographic footprint and enhancing its flexible generation portfolio,” said Mr. Hope. “Financed through a combination of equity, cash, and debt, the acquisition is expected to be substantially (18-per-cent) accretive to AFFO per share starting in 2026. We view this acquisition positively as it aligns with CPX’s growth strategy, leverages its operational expertise, and establishes a meaningful presence in a key U.S. power market with favourable fundamentals. We have also tempered our Alberta power price outlook, which moderates the increase in our estimates.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler to $67 from $68 with a “buy” rating.
“The PJM acquisition is solid, with much better accretion on the deal than we expected,” he said. “M&A is one of three major catalysts we have been looking for and we expect continued share price torque as CPX executes on the next two catalysts. Further, increasing its U.S. exposure should help compress the multiple gap vs U.S. peers. CPX trades at an attractive EV/EBITDA (2026 estimate) multiple of 7.4 times and FCF yield of 15.2 per cent, a discount to U.S. peers at 9.5 times and 8.5 per cent, respectively, which is too wide in our view.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Calling it an “undervalued alternative lender with mortgages backed by income-producing properties,” Canaccord Genuity’s Zachary Weisbrod initiated coverage of Timbercreek Financial Corp. (TF-T) with a “buy” rating and $8 target, exceeding the average on the Street of $7.67.
“Our price target is set at a price-to-book multiple of 0.9 times, below the historical average of 1.0 times, reflecting elevated credit loss allowances driven by loans underwritten prior to the rise in bond yields in 2022,“ he said. ”As a mortgage investment corporation (MIC), Timbercreek is required to distribute all income to shareholders through dividends. As a result, Timbercreek provides investors with an attractive dividend yield (10.5 per cent), supported by distributable income generated from a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages and income-producing properties.”
“We believe Timbercreek’s units present excellent value both on a historical basis and relative to industry peers. As the company progresses through reducing credit risk on impaired loans from asset sales and repayments, we expect the valuation to improve materially.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury hiked his Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) target to $12 from $8.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $8.12.
* National Bank’s Shane Nagle raised his Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) target to $37 from $33 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison increased his target to $31 from $28 with a “buy” rating. The average is $29.79.
“Triple Flag announced it will acquire Orogen Royalties in a deal valued at $2.00 per share,“ said Mr. Hutchison. ”Altius owns 39.6 million shares of Orogen and holds a 1.5-per-cent NSR on the Expanded Silicon project. This represents a significant liquidity event for Altius and a large endorsement of Silicon and Altius’ royalty interest in the project. We are increasing our target to $31.00 reflecting higher NAV target price multiples.”
* Ahead of its quarterly release, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho lowered his Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) target to $210 from $220 with a “buy” rating (unchanged). The average is $230.10.
“We have revised our 1Q adjusted EPS forecast downward in light of the uncertain macro outlook negatively impacting forward-looking indicators (FLIs), which tends to increase ACL provisions,” he said. “However, we anticipate that NCO trends should improve modestly sequentially. The buyback pace year-to-date ($90-million-plus) gives us confidence in GSY’s medium- to long-term outlook.”
“Our investment thesis is predicated on GSY’s: (1) ability to manage in the current challenging macro environment through its robust credit underwriting platform, supported by its creditor insurance program; (2) solid loan book growth, particularly in secured products; (3) credible management team; and (4) business has consistently generated a 20-per-cent-plus ROE.”
* After weaker-than-expected second-quarter results, Stifel’s Martin Landry cut his Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) target to 20 cents from 50 cents with a “hold” rating. The average is 55 cents.
“Unfortunately, the company has not yet been able to stabilize its revenues as Q2FY25 revenues decreased by 23 per cent year-over-year, the largest year-over-year decline in the last six quarters,” he said. “The decline is due to a reduction in order frequency as customers are seeking alternatives offering more value. This resulted in lower fixed-cost absorption, leading to a 62-per-cent year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA. This marks a step change from the year-over-year profitability improvements realized by the company in the last 10 quarters. It is not clear if Goodfood will be able to stabilize its profitability given expectations of continued revenue erosion. This uncertainty is in addition to the potential large dilution risk stemming from the refinancing of the 2027 convertible debenture, creating a difficult backdrop for equity holders. Hence, we are reducing our price target.”
* Seeing its “two-pronged growth profile intact” ahead of its May 13 earnings release, ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray bumped his Stantec Inc. (STN-T) target to $140 from $135 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $142.91.
“We expect STN to report strong Q1/25 results, led by mid-single-digit organic growth and a contribution from M&A completed in 2024,” he said. “After a quiet H2/24 and Q1/25, M&A has accelerated in Q2/25 with STN announcing acquisitions of Page, a 1,400-employee firm based in Washington, DC, and Ryan Hanley in early April. While our growth and margin expectations remain unchanged for Q1/25, we have increased ATBe for 2025 and 2026 to account for recent M&A activity and the weaker C$. We expect to receive commentary from management on demand conditions by region/sector given the increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs with falling business and consumer confidence, U.S. government spending and the outlook for M&A. We remain neutral on STN given prevailing valuations.”
* In a report previewing quarterly results for Canadian thermal-weighted independent power producers, TD’s John Mould reduced his TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) target to $17 from $19 with a “buy” rating. The average is $18.05.
“Q1/25 average Alberta power prices of $40/MWh were soft (new supply, mild weather),” he said. “We have trimmed our targets for both CPX and TA to reflect ongoing economic uncertainty; we believe thematic tailwinds remain in place (load growth, reliability needs, potential data centre growth in Alberta). CPX remains our top pick (thermal asset quality, growth track record).”
