The volatile start of President Donald Trump’s second term has led to unusually negative returns for the stock market, and history suggests the rest of the year won’t be much better. The S & P 500 declined 7.9% between Jan. 20 and April 25, leaving only two trading sessions left before Trump’s first 100 days in office are over. Since 1945, the only first-100-day stretch that was worse for stocks was President Richard Nixon’s in early 1973, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. Overall, the average performance for the S & P 500 during the first key stretch of a presidency is a 2.1% gain, with gains recorded 70% of the time, Stovall said in a note to clients. History shows that a first 100 days this weak is a negative indicator for stocks the rest of the year. “A below-average first 100 days saw a full-year decline of 5.5%,” the CFRA note said. .SPX mountain 2025-01-20 The stock market has been volatile and lost ground since the start of President Donald Trump’s second-stint in office. The closest comparisons to this year paint an even more pessimistic picture. In 1973, the S & P 500 fell 9.9% during Nixon’s first 100 days, 1.3% during his second 100 days and finished the year down 17.4%, according to CFRA. In 2001, the index fell 6.9% during President George W. Bush’s first 100 days in office, then 5.3% in the second 100 before finishing the year with a 13% decline. To be sure, the stock market has started to turn around in late April, with the S & P 500 gaining 4.6% last week. And while the first 100 days has stood as an important political milestone since the New Deal days of FDR during the Great Depression, there’s nothing particularly magical about that number for the stock market. The performance of equities for the rest of the year will depend in part on how the trade disputes that have dominated Trump’s first 100 days play out. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box ” on Monday morning that ” it’s up to China to de-escalate ” in the tariff standoff between the two countries.
What Trump’s poor stock market start means for the rest of 2025, according to history
Apr 28, 2025
