Shareholders in Zaptec ASA (OB:ZAP) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 23% to kr18.33 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of kr1.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 69% to hit kr0.26 per share. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Zaptec
After the latest results, the one analyst covering Zaptec are now predicting revenues of kr1.88b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a substantial 32% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 435% to kr1.36. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of kr1.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.62 in 2024. So it’s pretty clear the analyst has mixed opinions on Zaptec after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a real cut to per-share earnings expectations.
The analyst also upgraded Zaptec’s price target 25% to kr25.00, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Zaptec’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 32% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 47% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Zaptec is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We don’t want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Zaptec (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
