Perhaps no player on the Bucs roster has quite as much riding on him this season than Zyon McCollum.
Sure, quarterback Baker Mayfield plays the most important position and as he goes so goes the team. But Mayfield showed last year that he can run a successful offense.
And much of the Bucs offensive performance this year may rest on the broad shoulders of rookie center Graham Barton. But Barton’s early returns in preseason combined with his draft pedigree should assuage most fears as to his abilities.
On the defensive side of the ball there are legitimate questions as to the ceiling of the teams outside linebacker room. But the floor of that group is fairly high and head coach Todd Bowles has shown that he doesn’t need elite talent there to produce a functional defense. The results are high variance to be sure, but the aggregate is a league average or better unit.
Given all of this information it is no surprise ESPN analyst Ben Solak has named cornerback Zyon McCollum as the Bucs 2024 “X-Factor.”
Zyon McCollum As An X-Factor
Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
After giving his reasoning for not selecting outside linebacker Yaya Diaby (faith that he can approximate the impact that Shaq Barrett had last year) and inside linebacker K.J. Britt (skepticism that former starter Devin White had much of a positive impact to begin with) ESPN’s Ben Solak chose Zyon McCollum because of uncertainty in McCollum’s play as well as the void left by former starter Carlton Davis III.
Solak writes: “I’m highlighting McCollum here because I have a lot of confidence that Diaby is good enough to replace Barrett, and I have a lot of confidence that the absence of White is not a big one. But Davis has been a starting corner for six seasons in Tampa Bay, and over that time has proved to be a lights-out press option against opposing WR1s. He’s injury-prone, a little older and terrible at catching the football, but he was a big part of this defense’s success.”
“McCollum, who was a fifth-round draft pick in 2022, has the size (6-foot-2, 199 pounds) and explosiveness that made Davis so successful pressed up on the boundary. But last season, he got experience everywhere as he plugged into the starting lineup when others got injured — he played outside on the left and right, over the slot and even at safety. Bowles called him the most improved player on the defense last year, citing versatility and toughness, but in a permanent outside cornerback role, you need coverage skills, instincts and maturity. Opposing teams will test McCollum early and often to see if the young corner really has what it takes to win outside.”
I can’t find any disagreements with Solak’s logic.
Cornerback is one of the ficklest positions in the league. Last year’s stud can be this year’s albatross. I suspect this is why there has been stagnation in the free agency market at this position. While most other positions are seeing a substantial rise at the top of the market in salaries the corner market has not moved since Jaire Alexander reset it in 2022.
Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – Photo by: USA Today
For his part McCollum is not devoid of experience and some encouraging results. Last year he out-snapped both Davis and Jamel Dean. Looking through some of the data NFL Pro he ranked 89th in QBR allowed, 63rd in catch rate allowed, 71st in catch rate over expected, 40th in epa/coverage rep among 190 qualified defensive backs.
Not everything was rosy though. That same data had him with the 9th highest target rate proving Solak’s point that teams will, and already have, decided to test him often. And McCollum had the 34th highest yards per coverage rep according to NFL Pro.
All of this backs up the assertion that McCollum truly is an X-Factor. The Bucs did sign Bryce Hall in free agency, and he does provide some depth if McCollum faulters, but all of the posturing the Bucs have shown in the offense is that they have complete faith in McCollum. There was no competition for the job between he and Hall. And the team had to have the utmost confidence in him to deal Davis away.
The tools are there and the team’s faith, given their track record on player evaluations, is a positive for sure. There is a solid chance that the Bucs defense, and the team by extension, will go as far as McCollum’s development will allow them in 2024. Personally, I am very high on his prospects to live up to the billing.
