Sasha Jovanovic
5 min read
Brazil’s runoff election has turned into a tug-of-war over the country’s economic future, and export-focused stocks are right in the middle of it. Shifts in trade relationships, tariff risks, and policy signals toward the U.S. could reshape how investors think about Brazilian equities tied to overseas demand. This article unpacks that story and examines three stocks that appear particularly exposed to the latest political crosswinds.
The three stocks in this article are only a starting sample. The full screen surfaced 8 more Brazilian export-oriented and pro-business equities with equally compelling narratives that are not covered below. To identify, compare, and analyze those ideas side by side, head straight into the Brazilian export-oriented and pro-business equities screener.
Ternium (TX)
Overview: Ternium is a Latin American steel group that produces and sells a broad range of flat and long steel products plus iron ore.
Operations: Ternium generates about US$15.4b from its Steel segment and US$1.2b from Mining, with Brazil contributing US$4.0b in sales.
Market Cap: US$11.0b
Ternium matters in this export-oriented screen because its steel output feeds into global supply chains, so changing trade winds in Brazil can quickly influence its earnings power.
“Substantial ongoing investment in the Pesqueria Industrial Center in Mexico is set to increase capacity by 1.5 million tons annually, with new cold rolling and galvanized lines starting ramp-up from late 2025 onward. This is positioning Ternium to capitalize on potential long-term demand growth from nearshoring and infrastructure projects, which could boost future top-line growth and operational leverage.”
The real swing factor for Ternium is how one pressure on regional steel pricing ultimately feeds through to margins during that expansion phase.
That margin question is exactly what the full narrative for Ternium unpacks, mapping how nearshoring, pricing cycles, and capital intensity could interact as this expansion accelerates.
Minerva (BOVESPA:BEEF3)
Overview: Minerva is a Brazilian beef producer and exporter that processes cattle into fresh and processed meat for customers worldwide.
Operations: Minerva generates about R$54.5b from Meat and roughly R$2.7b from Other activities, with performance heavily tied to protein exports.
Market Cap: R$4.2b
Minerva matters in an export-focused screen because it ties Brazil’s political mood directly to global beef flows, quota regimes, and how easily local supply can reach higher value overseas markets.
