This past week was a busy one for the markets with the latest inflation numbers coming out and, of course, the big SpaceX IPO coming on Friday. Thus far, the stock market has continued to do well in 2026, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)‘s gains sitting at around 9% as of June 12. It’s particularly impressive given how well the index has been doing in recent years. Since 2023, it has risen by 94%.
How the remainder of the year goes, however, could depend on multiple factors. There are three things to watch for this week that could be good indicators of how the market will perform in the weeks and months ahead.
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1. How SpaceX stock performs in its first full week
Although SpaceX had a successful first day, rising by 19%, how it performs the remainder of the year is a big question. Its valuation is north of $2.1 trillion, already making it among the most valuable companies in the world.
The big question this week is whether that valuation will weigh on the stock or whether momentum will remain strong. While SpaceX gives investors the ability to pursue growth opportunities in many areas, including rockets, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications, it’s also highly unprofitable. If the stock thrives this week, that could indicate that investor appetite for risk remains high.
I thought that SpaceX’s IPO might have called into question high valuations, potentially negatively impacting the markets, but that hasn’t been the case, at least not on day one. After a full week, there will be a clearer indication of just how strong the appetite for risk really is and how willing investors are to look past sky-high valuations.
2. The upcoming Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this week under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. It’ll be a highly anticipated event because it will provide valuable insights into how hawkish or dovish Warsh is and whether rates will likely rise or fall this year.
With inflation rising to its highest levels since 2023, according to the most recent numbers, it certainly doesn’t make the case for lowering interest rates easy, which the U.S. president has been pushing for. What may be even more important than the actual rate decision is what Warsh says about the economy and if there’s any indication of what the future might hold.
