Quick Read
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s June 16-17 FOMC debut is a key catalyst for SPY as futures shift toward pricing 2026 rate hikes rather than cuts.
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Bank of America’s pre-market-peak checklist just hit 70%, matching the historical average at seven major market tops, but signals cycle position, not timing.
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The Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) checklist of pre-peak warning signs is flashing at 70%, matching the rough average reading seen at the last seven major stock market tops over the past 35 years. That figure, attributed to Bank of America Global Research in a checklist recreated by SSR and circulated on X by @ThierryBorgeat, lands one week before Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh takes the helm of his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17.
For market participants, the 70% figure from Bank of America is loaded and shouldn’t be misread. The post is explicit that the checklist tells you where you are in the cycle, not when a top hits, and the markets can sit near a peak for months and keep climbing.
Still, the data points deserve your attention. The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), sits at a level the post pegs around 7,580, up from 6,144 when the same checklist last read 70% in February 2025.
The Scary-Sounding Number
Let’s start with the headline figure: 70%. That’s the share of Bank of America’s pre-peak warning indicators currently firing, per the May reading from Bank of America Global Research.
For historical context, the same Bank of America checklist printed 88% in July 1990, 90% in March 2000, 80% in October 2007, 60% in September 2018, 50% in February 2020, and 50% in January 2022. The average across those prior peaks comes to 70%, which is the exact level today (or more precisely, in May of 2026).
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What It Means
The signals Bank of America has currently flagged span sentiment, valuation, credit, and macro factors. The list includes elevated consumer confidence and bullish expectations, stretched long-term growth expectations, record merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, and extreme valuations on a combined price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio-plus-inflation basis.
