Wall Street may be past the worst of the tariff headlines two weeks after the initial April 2 announcement — as President Donald Trump endeavors to accomplish enormous trade deals during his 90-day pause — but volatility will continue to be a mainstay of the stock market for the foreseeable future. Investors wrapped up yet another turbulent week, with all three major averages posting losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite fell by more than 2%, each. The S & P 500 ended the week down by more than 1%. U.S. markets were closed April 18 due to Good Friday. Still, there is some optimism among investors the worst is behind them, now that it appears less likely the U.S. will single handedly be fighting a trade war against the rest of the world as seemed to be the case at the start of this month. “The reason that I’m generally sanguine is that I think that the reciprocal tariffs are going to have to come down, and I actually think that President Trump will be successful in pursuing 90 trade deals in 90 days,” said Marko Papic, chief strategist of geomacro strategy at BCA Research. “Yes, most people think that’s not going to happen because it’s never been done. But, that’s because they’re not going to be comprehensive trade deals,” Papic continued. “They’re going to be, you know, like some marginal victories for America.” That doesn’t mean Papic doesn’t anticipate further volatility for the stock market. The strategist expects the S & P 500 will retest its 4,800 low. That, however, would be a spot for investors to start adding exposure, he said. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 “We know the worst case scenario with tariffs, and we know that they’re being negotiated, so the impact that people were fearful of when we sold off — the worst case seems to be done,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “Now we have to see where we land, and what kind of longer term impact it will have on the market, on the stocks that drive this market.” Other market observers are hopeful the worst is now behind investors. Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey wrote Thursday that a “Fed put” — in which the Federal Reserve will step in to support the economy — is in play if the S & P 500 falls back below 5,000, meaning a return to the April 8 bottom of 4,983 is “unlikely.” He recommended a mix of low volatility stocks to deal with choppy markets. Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee, a long-time bull, said he expects the notion of a structural low is “still intact,” as “‘headlines’ not fundamental developments drive market moves” in a post “liberation day” environment. To be sure, there is plenty of skepticism out there as well. Freedom Capital Markets’ Woods said he’s next watching 5,130 in the S & P 500, a Fibonacci retracement level that could potentially be a floor for the index, but is wary there are plenty of hurdles ahead including the earnings season. “I still think we have a lot of work to do to sound the all-clear signal, that’s for sure,” Woods said. Worries of not-so-magnificent earnings Earnings season will be ramping up next week, with more than 120 S & P 500 companies set to report, including Magnificent Seven companies Alphabet and Tesla. Thus far, the season has been going well. Of the few S & P 500 companies that have reported thus far, about 72% have beat expectations. The blended growth rate — which incorporates analyst estimates and results from corporations that have already reported — stands at 7.3%, a slight improvement from the 7.2% analysts were expecting on March 31, according to FactSet’s John Butters. That strength mainly comes from financials, which have reported results over the last week. Thus far, companies that have the unenviable task of communicating how they will be navigating tariff uncertainty have been managing to maintain their guidance, even as analysts continue to cut their own forecasts, a trend that Butters said he will continue to keep an eye on. As it is, companies that lower guidance have the potential to be punished severely. On Thursday, the Dow’s losses were mainly attributed to UnitedHealth Group’s selloff after the company cut its annual profit forecast. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday April 21 10 a.m. Leading Indicators (March) Earnings: W.R. Berkley Tuesday April 22 9:30 a.m. Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Harker speaks on Economic Mobility in Regional Economies, Philadelphia 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (April) Earnings: Baker Hughes , Intuitive Surgical , Enphase Energy , Capital One Financial , Tesla , Steel Dynamics , Lockheed Martin , Verizon Communications , Kimberly-Clark , Genuine Parts , MSCI , Quest Diagnostics , PulteGroup , 3M , Equifax , Synchrony Financial , Elevance Health , Danaher , RTX , Northern Trust , Northrop Grumman , GE Aerospace Wednesday April 23 8 a.m. Building Permits final (March) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (April) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (April) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services preliminary (April) 10 a.,. New Home Sales (April) 2 p.m. Fed Beige Book Earnings: ServiceNow , Chipotle Mexican Grill , Lam Research , Texas Instruments , Tyler Technologies , O’Reilly Automotive , International Business Machines , FirstEnergy , Discover Financial Services , NextEra Energy , Old Dominion Freight Line , General Dynamics , CME Group , Boston Scientific , Thermo Fisher Scientific , AT & T , Otis Worldwide , Norfolk Southern , GE Vernova , Boeing , Raymond James Financial , Philip Morris International Thursday April 24 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (March) 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/19) 10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (March) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (April) Earnings: Hartford Insurance Group , Eastman Chemical , T-Mobile US , Gilead Sciences , Alphabet , Intel , Comcast , Freeport-McMoRan , Union Pacific , Keurig Dr Pepper , Bristol Myers Squibb , Tractor Supply , Procter & Gamble , CBRE Group , Southwest Airlines , Valero Energy , Hasbro , PepsiCo , PG & E , L3Harris Technologies , Ameriprise Financial Friday April 25 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (April) Earnings: Schlumberger , Phillips 66 , Charter Communications , Colgate-Palmolive , Centene , AbbVie , Abbott Laboratories Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! 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Wall Street may be past the worst of the tariff sell-off. Market volatility is likely to remain
Apr 19, 2025
