While the market setup may be shaky heading into October, its recent September momentum may actually indicate there’s even more upside in store for next month, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Stocks have surged to new heights this month, with the S & P 500 having scored a new all-time intraday and closing high on Monday. Its gains for the month stand at more than 2%, significantly better than its average September pullback of 4.2% in the last five years. While stocks have seen three consecutive days of losses amid rising concerns about elevated price levels and the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade, Hirsch doesn’t think that the market will face “Octoberphobia” – a term used to describe the big market declines that have taken place in the month, like the crashes of 1929 and 1987. That’s even taking into the fact that fresh all-time highs in September have historically been followed by moderately weaker performance in October. “Valuations are high, [and] breadth has got some issues, but there’s so much money going in,” the editor said in an interview with CNBC. “The bullish push, the bullish momentum, is really hard to deny, and it doesn’t end early. These tops take a process.” “The market doesn’t have the bearish seasonality. When bearish seasonality doesn’t transpire, it’s a bullish indication that more powerful forces are at play,” he added. Notably, 2025 is a post-election year. Hirsch said that October, though still somewhat choppy, is a bit stronger in performance in post-election years, adding to this year’s more favorable setup. In fact, in every October in a post-election year since 1950, the S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain, per data from the Almanac. That’s better than its 0.9% average from 1950 to 2024. “It’s going to be a monster Q4 rally,” Hirsch said, noting that his year-end price target on the broad market index of 7,100 implies more than 7% upside ahead. Behind that boost, he cited that the catalysts for solid trading activity are AI, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and persistent government spending. The editor also said that he believes that concerns about the government possibly shutting down next week will be “alleviated.” .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year-to-date His comments come as the S & P 500 has risen more than 12% in 2025. “It’s climbing that wall of worry still with how far we’ve come this year,” he told CNBC. “It’s kind of a gains beget gains, at least until we turn the calendar.” ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
Will the stock market get ‘Octoberphobia’ this year?
Sep 26, 2025
