Mass geopolitical events like the US and Israel’s air strike campaign against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and stoked intense retaliation, often trigger quick movements out of equities and into flight-to-safety assets.
When futures markets reopened for trading at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, investors surged into risk-off repricing.
Futures on the US equities markets plunged through Sunday night into Monday morning, as contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) fell by roughly 1.2%, while those on theNasdaq 100 (NQ=F) lost a deeper 1.6%, and the Middle Eastern and Australian equity markets saw similar movement.
The Tadawul All Shares Index (^TASI.SR), Saudi Arabia’s benchmark equity index, lost roughly 4.6% early in its session before paring to a loss of roughly 2%, while Egypt’s blue-chip EGX30 index (^EGX30CAPPED.CA) slid by nearly 6% before pulling back to a loss of 2.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index (^AXJO) lost roughly 0.4% in the first hours of the Australian session before recovering.
In the equity markets’ place, traders rushed into safe-haven assets.
Gold (GC=F), the preeminent flight-to-safety asset, surged at the market open by more than 3% to cross $5,410 per troy ounce, adding to what has already been a roaring climb in value as geopolitical risks — from the White House’s tariff regime to US threats of an annexation of Greenland — have abounded. Fellow precious metal silver (SI=F) added 2.7% to cross $95 per ounce.
Traditional stronghold currencies have also moved up. The US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) has gained roughly 0.7% since the market reopened, while other major currencies such as the euro and British pound have depreciated against it. The Swiss franc — often seen as the ultimate neutral safe-haven currency — spiked at the market open but has since pared its gains against the dollar as the greenback has picked up steam.
US 10-year (^TNX) and 5-year (^FVX) treasuries saw slight gains.
Oil (BZ=F, CL=F), the most in-focus asset for any conflict in the Middle East, has seen prices surge as traders look to lock in futures contracts as prices soar.
Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, gained 13% to trade above $82 — a price not seen since January 2025 — before slightly pulling back to $79 as the market watched significant disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint that sees roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply pass through its waters every day.
At the same time, energy stocks on open markets have gained as well in a rare spot of green for equities — typically a risk-on asset class. Saudi Aramco (2223.SR) picked up roughly 3% in Middle Eastern trading on predictions of higher oil prices. Australia’s Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) and Beach Energy (BPT.AX) both picked up more than 4%, while Santos (STO.AX) surged by more than 5%.
