Stock market today: Global indexes slide as oil pops above $100 a barrel over Iran war worries

Market update:

• At 11:57 a.m. ET, the ⁠S&P/TSX composite ​index was down 188.20 points, or 0.57 per cent, at 32,652.40.
• Trading was choppy on Wall Street as investors weighed a ⁠mixed run of ​economic data against a widening Middle East conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.82 points, or 0.02%, to 46,685.67, the S&P 500 lost 16.01 points, or 0.24%, to 6,656.61 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 104.09 points, or ⁠0.47%, to 22,206.61.
• Brent crude climbed past US$100 a barrel as it became clear an Indian tanker did not sail through the Strait of Hormuz but had departed from Oman east of the strait, which has been closed since the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran ⁠began. An India-flagged oil tanker was said by an Indian government official to be moving east of the Strait of Hormuz carrying gasoline ​bound for Africa, leading to the misperception the ship had passed through the ‌strait itself. Brent futures for ​May were up $1.37, or 1.36%, to US$101.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April gained 53 cents, or 0.55%, to $96.26 a barrel.
• The loonie was trading 0.6 per cent ​lower at ‌72.88 U.S. cents, marking its weakest intraday level since March 3.
• U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.16 per cent to US$5,092.60.

03/13/26 12:29

Barclays, Goldman Sachs expect Fed to push back rate cuts on inflation worries

Barclays on Friday joined ‌Goldman Sachs in delaying its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut this year to September from ⁠June, ​citing heightened risks to inflation from the conflict in the Middle East.

Barclays said hotter-than-expected underlying U.S. inflation and the prospect of oil-driven price pressures meant the Fed ​was unlikely to gain confidence that ‌inflation was easing quickly enough to begin cutting rates in mid-2026.

Barclays also pushed its projected December cut to March 2027 and now expects only one 25-basis-point rate reduction this year.

A ⁠Commerce Department report on Friday showed the economy slowed more ​than first estimated in the fourth quarter after downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment, while separate data indicated consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in January.

Goldman Sachs pushed back ⁠its rate-cut forecast on Thursday, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East war.

Barclays said policymakers would need several months of moderate core inflation to be confident the disinflation trend is intact.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when policymakers meet ​on March 17-18.

– Reuters

03/13/26 11:56

TSX on track for second week of losses as Mideast tensions sap risk appetite

Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Friday and was on track for a weekly decline ⁠as investors ​assessed the fallout from the Middle East conflict and a swathe of domestic and U.S. economic data.

At 11:57 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 188.20 points, or 0.57 per cent, at 32,652.40.

Silver ​miners weighed on the materials sector, pushing ‌it down 3.1 per cent, as shares of Vizsla Silver and Fortuna Mining dropped sharply after silver prices slid more than 3.5 per cent.

Energy was down 0.1 per cent, after rising through the week, as crude prices dipped on Friday after an ‌Indian tanker ​sailed out of ‌the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. put forth measures to ​ease supply concerns.

“The duration of the supply ⁠disruption remains highly uncertain, but its length will impact ⁠inflation and, thereafter, consumer spending and the economy at large,” said Andrew Hencic, ​director and senior economist at TD Economics.

On the flip side, consumer staples led gains, climbing 1.3 per cent, while heavyweight financials added 0.5 per cent after falling more than 1.4 per cent in the last session.

The benchmark TSX is on track for its second ⁠straight week of losses as crude prices hover near $100 a barrel, heightening inflation worries amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East that show little sign of easing.

– Reuters

03/13/26 11:37

U.S. consumer staples lose sheen as lofty valuations meet gloomy earnings outlook

After a ​strong rally this year, U.S. consumer staples stocks are falling ‌out of favor, with investors starting to question the high valuation as earnings prospects dim, analysts said.

Staples, widely considered as safe havens within equities, became a popular refuge earlier this year when investors fled highly valued technology stocks on concerns about heavy artificial ⁠intelligence-led ​investments and the technology’s disruptive effects on businesses.

The sharp rotation helped push the S&P 500 consumer staples index’s forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio – a widely watched valuation metric, to its highest since June 1999, as per LSEG data.

However, cracks have started to appear since the index hit a record high in mid-February.

The group has shed 5.6 per cent so far ​in March, with technology and energy shares regaining momentum after the Middle ‌East conflict broke out on February 28. Investors typically move into defensive sectors during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, seeking steady earnings regardless of the economic backdrop.

“Rising inflation expectations tied to potential escalation with Iran could begin to undermine the defensive appeal of staples, particularly given how strongly the sector has already performed this year,” said Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo.

Analysts fear that broad inflationary ‌pressures, fueled ​by the Iran war, could squeeze consumer ‌spending and hurt earnings growth in the sector. Food companies, which constitute a chunk of the staples index, are ​already facing the threat of changing eating habits due to the ⁠increasing popularity of weight-loss drugs.

First-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 consumer staples sector are expected to rise ⁠1.9 per cent, compared with 6.6-per-cent growth seen at the start of the year, according to Tajinder Dhillon, head of earnings and equity research at ​LSEG.

Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 is expected to record earnings growth of 12.8 per cent in the current quarter.

But even before the U.S. and Israel war on Iran started, Cheerios cereal maker General Mills (GIS-N) cut its annual core sales and profit forecasts, sparking a selloff across food companies last month. More recently, pretzel maker Campbell’s Co (CPB-Q) cut its forecast and suspended its share buyback plans, citing weak demand ⁠for its snacks.

They are among the worst performing staples stocks this year, with Campbell’s shares trading at their lowest since March 2003.

“We want to be selective in this environment, focused on earnings growth, as further multiple expansion (is) unlikely,” said Jake Johnston, deputy CIO of Advisors Asset Management.

On the other hand, a broader move into defensive stocks earlier this year and positive quarterly results from big-box retailers Costco Wholesale (COST-Q) and Walmart (WMT-N) have helped their shares record double-digit ⁠gains this year.

– Reuters

03/13/26 10:34

Wall Street rises as investors weigh data, Middle East war

Wall Street’s main stock indexes rose on Friday, rebounding from sharp losses in the previous session, as investors assessed a set of economic data releases to gauge the Federal Reserve’s ⁠interest rate ​outlook, while the Middle East conflict widens.

A Commerce Department report showed economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter following downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment, while a separate report showed consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in January.

The data did little to shift expectations for the Fed’s policy path as traders priced in one ​25-basis-point interest rate cut later this year, according to LSEG-compiled data, compared with two ‌cuts expected before the war began on February 28.

“Inflation remains elevated, sticky and with the possibility of energy prices eventually moving into the pipeline, the Fed is likely to stay on hold for a longer period of time,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist, Spartan Capital Securities.

The Fed will potentially leave interest rates unchanged when it meets next week and spiking energy costs could complicate the central bank’s policy plans as ‌other reports ​point to price pressures and a softening ‌job market.

Meanwhile, data showed the University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate on consumer sentiment edged lower in March to 55.5 from 56.6 ​in late February.

Crude prices hovered near $100 a barrel as hostilities in the Middle ⁠East showed few signs of easing despite the Trump administration’s assurances of a swift resolution. Efforts such as ⁠the International Energy Agency’s record emergency oil releases, and the U.S. 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea have ​so far failed to bring down the surge in costs.

At 10:10 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 197.09 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 46,874.94, the S&P 500 gained 28.78 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 6,701.40 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 89.51 points, or 0.40 per cent, to 22,401.49.

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE volatility index, wavered and was last down 1.8 points at 25.37.

All of the 11 S&P 500 sectors edged higher, with utilities leading with a 1.4-per-cent rise.

The S&P 500 and the financials-heavy Dow were set for their third week in the red with the latter hit the hardest, putting it on track for its biggest monthly losses since December 2024.

Credit quality worries deepened this week after Morgan Stanley halted redemptions at one of its private credit funds, following similar moves by BlackRock and Blue Owl in recent weeks. JPMorgan Chase also restricted lending to ⁠private credit players, while Blackstone faced a surge in redemptions.

– Reuters

03/13/26 10:25

David Rosenberg: Traders need ‘to go to the woodshed for a whipping’ for thinking next BoC rate move will be a hike

– Darcy Keith

Economist David Rosenberg just shared his thoughts on this morning’s surprisingly weak Canadian jobs report. He’s rather baffled that money market traders are still thinking a Bank of Canada rate hike looms for later this year.

In a note, he says: “The traders in the swaps market thinking that the next move by the Bank of Canada is going to be a rate hike — yes, that is what is currently priced in — either have to go to the woodshed for a whipping or at least go back to the drawing board. Only the most sadistic central bank would be tightening into an imploding jobs market. Canadian employment sank by -83,900 in February, a shock to a typically rose-colored-glasses-donning Bay Street economics crowd that had penned in a +10k rebound. Keeping in mind that this follows on the heels of a -24,800 job contraction in January, almost wiping out all the job gains posted since last September. Adding to the angst is the fact that all of the plunge in February, and then some, took place in full-time employment, which cratered -108,400 — the steepest decline since the peak pandemic effect in April 2020, and before COVID-19, try January 2009. If the Canadian economy is not back in recession, it sure looks like the labour market is.”

“Covering sixty years of data, only in the 2009 Great Recession has Canadian employment started off a year with such a massive job contraction. Not exactly fertile ground for the Bank of Canada to be doing anything other than contemplate a rate cut. That, of course, all depends on if Tiff Macklem and his policy team assess what is happening with the war-induced oil price shock as a de facto deflationary tax on the consumer rather than any durable inflationary impact. This price shock is only going to end up hitting a wall in a labour market that is clearly deteriorating sharply.”

As we reported earlier, implied probabilities in overnight index swaps suggests a near 50-per-cent probability of a rate hike in July and the market is now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike by the October policy meeting, according to Bloomberg data.

03/13/26 09:34

North American stocks indexes gain in early trading

​Canada’s main ‌stock index opened ⁠higher ​on Friday, with industrials and ​financials ‌leading gains as investors assessed ‌the implications ​of ‌the ​Middle East ⁠conflict and ⁠a ​swathe of both domestic and U.S. economic data.

At ⁠9:31 a.m. ET, the ⁠S&P/TSX composite ​index ⁠was up 0.41 per cent ‌at 32,957.26 points.

Canada’s economy unexpectedly lost a net 83,900 jobs ⁠in ​February, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent as job losses occurred across both the services and goods sectors, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.

A dip in the number of jobs this high was last observed almost 17 years ago if ​the months of lockdown during the pandemic are excluded, ‌StatsCan said.

The result missed analysts’ expectations of a job gain of 10,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent. In the previous month, the economy lost 24,800 jobs and the jobless rate was down to a 16-month low of 6.5 per cent.

Wall ​Street’s main ‌stock indexes opened mixed on Friday, ⁠after ​sharp losses in the previous session, while investors ​assessed a ‌set of economic data releases to gauge the ‌interest ​rate ‌outlook as ​the Middle East conflict ⁠widens.

The Dow ⁠Jones Industrial ​Average rose 11.4 points, or 0.02 per cent, at the open to 46,689.24. The ⁠S&P 500 fell 0.9 points, or 0.01 per cent, to ​6,673.49, while ⁠the Nasdaq Composite rose 113.7 ‌points, or 0.51 per cent, to ​22,425.704.

– Reuters

03/13/26 09:23

‘Brutal’ and ‘worrisome’: How economists are reacting to a stunningly weak Canadian jobs report

– Darcy Keith

Here’s a snapshot of how economists are reacting to the surprisingly soft Canadian jobs data this morning:

Douglas Porter, chief economist, BMO Capital Markets

“No sense sugar-coating this one—this is simply a brutal result, and the near absence of net job growth in the past year is perhaps the most telling reading here. While a tough winter may have exaggerated the weakness at the start of the year, and a shrinking labor force is also weighing heavily on headline employment, the underlying story so far in 2026 is one of weakness. A range of other indicators for January, including a 3 per cent drop in manufacturing sales, reinforces the point that the economy stumbled out of the gate this year. And now the economy has to contend with higher energy costs flowing from the Iran conflict. Somehow, the market continues to price in Bank of Canada rate hikes for later this year, but if this employment report is at all indicative of underlying economic conditions, the last thing the Bank would be considering would be rate hikes.”

Katherine Judge, senior economist, CIBC Capital Markets

“The Canadian labour market took a worrisome turn in February, with employment dropping by 84K and the unemployment rate rising to 6.7 per cent from 6.5 per cent. … Overall, this is clearly a very worrisome report for the BoC that shows that labour market slack has increased and activity is frozen amidst trade uncertainty.”

Bradley Saunders, North American economist, Capital Economics

“The rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.7 per cent in February supports our view that, despite the surge in oil prices, the Bank of Canada will be reluctant to discuss a potential return to rate hikes this year. … Part of last month’s plunge looks to have been weather-related given the harsh winter storms during the reference week and therefore should reverse to some degree in March. … Otherwise, we also learnt today that manufacturing sales volumes slumped by 3.9 per cent m/m in January. That drop was almost entirely due to a 39 per cent m/m plunge in motor vehicle sales, reflecting prolonged winter shutdowns at various auto assembly plants in Ontario as firms took longer than usual to re-tool given the complex tariff backdrop. That leaves scope for manufacturing sales to rebound later in the quarter but, for now, the data add to the sense that GDP probably declined in January. With the slump in employment boding poorly for GDP in February, we’re currently on track for GDP growth of just 0.5 per cent annualised or so this quarter, which would be much weaker than the 1.8 per cent gain that the Bank has pencilled in.”

Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins

“It’s been a brutal start to the year for Canada’s labour market. …. Don’t pay any attention to the spike in average hourly wages. The increase looks completely due to compositional effects, with job losses heavily tilted towards lower-than-average paid work, which mechanically pushes up the average wage reading. ….

The recent spike in oil prices still has the market pricing more than one full rate hike for the Bank of Canada this year. However, given the deterioration in labour market conditions and the severe woes in regional housing markets, we believe that central bankers will largely look through the impacts of higher energy prices in the near-term.“

03/13/26 09:14

Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September

The Federal ‌Reserve will probably next cut interest rates in September, traders bet on Friday after ⁠government ​data showed inflation by the Fed’s targeted measure wasn’t quite as hot as feared at the start ​of the year.

Before ‌the data, which showed a 2.8-per-cent year-on-year rise in the personal consumption expenditures price index in January, the betting had ‌been ​for a ‌first Fed rate cut in ​October. The Fed targets 2-per-cent inflation.

In ⁠the two weeks since ⁠the Iran conflict set off a ​surge in oil prices, traders had pushed bets on a first Fed rate cut to as late as December. Oil prices for now ⁠remain key to expectations around the Fed, which is universally expected to leave rates on hold when central bankers meet in Washington ⁠next week.

“Inflation remains elevated, sticky ​and with the possibility of energy prices ⁠eventually moving into the pipeline, the Fed ‌is likely to stay on hold for a ​longer period of time,” said Spartan Capital Securities chief market economist Peter Cardillo.

– Reuters

03/13/26 09:04

Loonie dives on surprisingly weak jobs report but markets still expect rate hike later this year

– Darcy Keith

The Canadian dollar dove immediately on the surprisingly weak jobs report, falling from about 73.20 US cents to just below the 73-US-cents level.

Canadian bond yields also fell, with the two-year yield falling from 2.84 per cent just prior to the report, to 2.76 per cent. That’s down about 5 basis points for the session, but only takes the yield back down to where it was on Thursday. Bond yields had been rising throughout much of this week in both Canada and the U.S., reflecting the inflationary risks posed by surging oil prices.

It’s been a rough week for the loonie overall and it’s now trading at its lowest levels of the year – owing mostly to continued safe haven flows into the U.S. dollar amid the Middle East conflict.

Nevertheless, money markets still believe the next move by the Bank of Canada will be a rate hike. Implied probabilities in overnight swaps suggests a near 50-per-cent probability of a rate hike in July and the market is now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike by the October policy meeting, according to Bloomberg data.

03/13/26 08:38

Wall Street futures extend gains marginally after economic data

​U.S. stock index ​futures extended gains slightly ‌on Friday as investors assessed data on inflation and economic growth ⁠for ​cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred ​inflation gauge, rose ‌0.3 per cent in January, on a monthly basis, in line with economists’ estimates of a 0.3-per-cent rise. ‌On ​an annual ‌basis, it rose 2.8 per cent ​versus expectations of a 2.9-per-cent ⁠rise.

Core PCE, which excludes ⁠the volatile food and ​energy components, rose 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis, in line with economists’ forecasts of a 0.4-per-cent rise.

Meanwhile, the Commerce ⁠Department’s second estimate showed gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter, compared with 1.4-per-cent growth expected ⁠by economists polled by ​Reuters.

At 8:31 a.m. ET, Dow ⁠E-minis were up 201 points, or 0.43 per cent, ‌Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 102.25 ​points, or 0.42 per cent, and S&P 500 E-minis were up 29.75 points, or 0.44 per cent.

– Reuters

03/13/26 08:33

Canada labour market dips sharply in February, unemployment rate goes up

Canada’s economy unexpectedly lost a net of 83,900 jobs in ⁠February, while ​the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent as jobs losses occurred across both services and goods sector, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.

A dip in the number of jobs this high was last observed almost 17 years ago if ​the months of lockdown during the pandemic are ‌excluded, StatsCan said.

The result missed analysts’ expectations of a job gain of 10,000 and an unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent. In the previous month, the economy lost 24,800 jobs and the jobless rate was down to a 16-month low of 6.5 per cent.

Canada’s labor market ‌has failed ​to add any substantial ‌jobs in the last few months as economic growth sputtered owing to a range ​of tariffs from President Donald Trump across ⁠critical sectors such as steel, autos, lumber and copper.

With the jobs ⁠losses of January and February, the economy has shed a total of 109,000 jobs, coming ​close to offsetting the massive gains of 189,000 jobs seen between September and December.

While the knock-on effects from these sectors have largely been contained, the Bank of Canada and economists have warned of more job losses as companies hold back investments and announce layoffs.

Employment amongst youth, ⁠which is usually always weaker than the core-aged people between 25 and 54 years, dipped to 14.1 per cent in February, close to the highest level seen in September last year, StatsCan said.

– Reuters

03/13/26 08:07

The sectors and ETFs to own if the Iran conflict drags on

– Scott Barlow

BMO quantitative analyst David Cheng looked at previous oil price shocks to find sectors most likely to outperform,

“For equity investors, our sensitivity analysis point s to energy and defensive sectors having the best opportunity to outperform if crude -driven inflation pressures resurface. Notably, in the U.S., energy, staples, utilities, and health care exhibit the highest positive sensitivities, while in Canada, communication services, energy, and staples stand out as the most responsive sectors. We also put this statistical analysis to the test by tracking performance rankings of equity sectors and factors for years that crude last hit $100 per barrel … Given the growing preferences for active ETFs over the years, we observe similar rising demand for actively managed covered call ETFs. While passive and rule -based covered call strategies typically favour a range – bound market to steadily collect premiums, active portfolio managers have the flexibility to adjust quantity and strike prices of options in order to achieve optimal total return profiles. In other words, elevated volatility can be an advantage rather than a headwind for active covered call ETFs, allowing more selective covered call writing in order to capture higher premiums while preserving more upside price participation.”

03/13/26 08:06

Growth opportunities abound for these stocks in the high-yield energy infrastructure sector

– Scott Barlow

RBC Capital Markets analyst Maurice Choy says “there’s no slowing down in the pace of growth opportunities across the Canadian midstream sector” in what is great news for domestic income investors,

“Amid solid Q4/25 results, it is clear to us that there’s no slowing down in the pace of growth opportunities across the Canadian Midstream sector. Indeed, some investors have positioned around how certain companies may benefit or be hurt by recent geopolitical events and weather events, and these can cause share price changes, particularly heading into Q1/26 results releases. However, we emerge out of the reporting season with a view that the midstreamers’ growth targets are sustainable through the end of the decade, if not positioned for upgrades, with recent events further underscoring the criticality of the sector’s infrastructure. At the heart of it, we believe a company’s growth will continue to drive a higher share price valuation, but it is the sustainability of this growth and its associated risks that will determine how high and how durable this valuation level will be. We prefer a more balanced investor discussion around the associated risks (e.g., cash flow/counterparty quality, cost integrity, execution, funding), but perhaps the market’s comfort is underpinned by the unwavering commitment to tried-and-tested capital allocation philosophies that is observed broadly across the sector. Stock-wise, we sense rising investor expectations for Pembina, Keyera, TC Energy and Enbridge”

03/13/26 07:34

Strategist sees similarities to 2007

– Scott Barlow

I think BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett is pushing it with this comparison but I don’t want to completely fade it,

“Aug’07 to Jul’08 oil price $70/bbl to $140/bbl and subprime tremors began (BNP/Northern Rock/Bear Stearns); oil peaked Jul 3rd 2008, same day as ECB hiked 25bps, one of great policy mistakes of all time …74 days later Lehman bust, GFC in full effect as credit trumped oil (collapsed to $40/bbl), ECB forced to cut 325bps; probability of ECB rate hike by Jun’26 now 75 per cent, and Wall St ominously trading ’07-‘08 analog. Tale of the Tape: oil tightening financial conditions & Fed cut pricing out (June was 100-per-cent probability, now 25 per cent); bigger risk for stocks is EPS not CPI; big banks = glue between Wall St & Main St and can’t buy cyclicals when banks breaking down (BKX [U.S. bank index] <150) … The Price is Right: we suggest fading oil >$100/bbl, US$ (DXY) >100, 30-year UST yield >5 per cent, SPX”

I do not see any signs of systemic risk like excess CDS underwriting before the financial crisis so not expecting a repeat.

03/13/26 07:31

‘Faster higher, stronger’ profit margins for domestic banks

– Scott Barlow

BMO bank analyst Sohrab Movahedi predicts “faster, higher, stronger” profitability ratios for the sector,

“FY26 opened with an encouraging profitability backdrop, with ROE supported by a favourable revenue environment—driven by strength in markets-related businesses and NIM [net interest margins] tailwinds— translating into solid PTPP [pre-tax, pre-provision] income growth. Credit trends have remained resilient, with PCL ratios broadly stable (albeit still elevated), reflecting underlying portfolio strength despite a complex macro backdrop. Looking ahead, the direction of travel remains constructive: faster, higher, stronger ROEs. We expect sustained revenue momentum, positive operating leverage, PCL normalization, and capital return through buybacks to support EPS growth of 12 per cent in FY26 and 9 per cent in FY27 across our coverage. Downside risks include a Canadian economic recession and prolonged sluggish loan growth amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, we see improving ROEs and stronger EPS growth as supportive of current valuations. Our target prices imply mid-teens total return potential. Our Outperform-rated names remain NA, TD, RY, and CM”

03/13/26 06:35

Gold set for second weekly loss on reduced rate cut bets, higher U.S. dollar, yields

Gold was on track for a second straight weekly loss, even as it ⁠edged ​higher on Friday, as surging oil prices dampened rate cut bets and caused investors to cover margin calls, while a rising dollar and U.S. yields also pressured prices.

Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at US$5,087.61 per ​ounce, but was ‌set for a 1.7-per-cent weekly drop. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.16 per cent to US$5,092.60.

“Gold is being used (as) a way of getting quick cash when you’ve got losses elsewhere given equity markets have been soft, while oil above $100 ‌also increases ​expectations for further inflationary pressures ‌and by extension a rollback in rate cuts,” said independent analyst ​Ross Norman.

Spot silver fell 1.3 per cent to $82.66 per ounce. Platinum lost 2.3 per cent to US$2,081.25 ​and palladium shed 0.7 per cent to US$1,605.90.

– Reuters

03/13/26 06:09

Wall Street futures subdued as Middle East unrest fuels inflation worries; data awaited

U.S. ‌stock index futures were subdued on Friday and Wall Street’s main indexes were set for their third week in the red, as a widening conflict in the Middle East threatened to stoke price pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking.

At 5:19 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 11 points, or 0.02 per cent, and S&P 500 E-minis were down 3.5 points, or 0.05 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 31.25 points, or 0.13 per cent.

Investors were also ⁠monitoring developments ​in the private credit market and awaiting a batch of economic data releases later in the day.

Crude prices hovered near US$100 a barrel as fighting in the Middle East appeared to be far from being resolved anytime soon despite the Trump administration’s assurances on a swift end to the conflict.

Efforts such as the International Energy Agency’s record emergency oil ​releases and the U.S. 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil ‌and petroleum products stranded at sea failed to bring down the surge in costs.

“Beyond energy, what now concerns economists is the potential impact on the entire global supply chain, because what transits through the Strait of Hormuz does not stop at oil: a significant share of global industrial production indirectly depends on this corridor,” said John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cite Gestion.

“In reality, if ‌this situation ​were to persist, a large part of ‌the global economy could quickly come under pressure.”

Markets will get an insight into the health of the U.S. economy ​as the January releases for durable goods and personal consumption expenditures ⁠are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, along with the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

Reports ⁠on job openings in January and the University of Michigan’s initial estimate on consumer sentiment in March are also expected at 10 a.m. ET.

– Reuters

03/13/26 06:08

Global equity funds see highest outflows since December on oil shock fears

Global ​equity funds recorded the largest weekly outflows since mid-December in the ​seven days to March 11 as ‌disruptions to oil supplies stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran stoked concerns about inflation and global economic growth.

According to LSEG Lipper data, global equity ⁠funds had US$7.05 -billion worth of outflows for the week, the largest since the week through December 17, 2025 that had outflows worth US$46.68-billion.

Brent crude traded above US$100 a barrel on Friday as global oil markets grappled with what ​traders described as the largest oil supply disruption ‌in history, with shipping in the Gulf and the narrow Strait of Hormuz coming to a near-standstill.

The CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” but more accurately an indicator of market uncertainty, hit 28.15 earlier this month, its ‌highest level ​since November.

U.S. equity ‌funds saw approximately US$7.77-billion worth of outflows after US$21.91-billion worth net ​weekly sales in the prior week. Investors also ⁠divested US$7.71-billion worth of European funds but invested US$6.15-billion ⁠into Asia.

Equity sectoral funds saw US$2.71-billion worth of net sales, with investors ditching financial ​and healthcare funds worth US$2.31-billion and US$1.31-billion, respectively. Industrial sector funds, however, attracted inflows of US$1.31-billion.

– Reuters

03/13/26 06:03

World shares decline, while oil pops above $100 a barrel over Iran war worries

World shares retreated on Friday while oil prices again popped above $100 per barrel as anxiety remained over the Iran war and its impact on supplies of crude oil and gas.

U.S. futures slipped, with the futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3 per cent.

In early European trading, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.7 per cent to 10,235.29. Germany’s DAX lost 1 per cent to 23,345.90, while France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.2 per cent to 7,887.18.

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index slipped 1.2 per cent to 53,819.61. Technology-related stocks saw some of the bigger losses, with SoftBank Group falling 4.5 per cent.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7 per cent to 5,487.24.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1 per cent to 25,465.60, while the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.8 per cent at 4,095.45.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1 per cent lower to 8,617.10.

Taiwan’s Taiex was trading 0.5 per cent lower, and India’s Sensex dropped 1.8 per cent.

Oil prices held steady as Brent crude, the international standard, traded at $101 per barrel. Benchmark U.S. crude was up 0.5 per cent at $96.23 per barrel.

– The Associated Press

03/13/26 05:33

Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

– S.R. Slobodian

Global stocks slid as the escalating conflict in the Middle East cast a shadow over markets and spurred inflation fears.

Wall Street futures were muted after a selloff in major North American markets yesterday.

TSX futures pointed lower ahead of key jobs numbers for February.

“With the possibility of higher oil prices still elevated, investors should be prepared for continued volatility and potentially further downside in the near term,” said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.65 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 0.37 per cent, Germany’s DAX retreated 0.88 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.91 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.16 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.98 per cent.

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03/13/26 05:25

Adobe shares drop after CEO exit adds to AI-disruption concerns

​Adobe’s (ADBE-Q) shares plunged 9 per cent in premarket trading ​on Friday after the Photoshop ‌maker said CEO Shantanu Narayen would step down after 18 years at the helm, unsettling investors already wary of ⁠AI-driven disruptions ​to the design software market.

The longtime CEO’s exit comes at a critical juncture as Adobe works to reassure investors it can keep pace with sweeping changes ​brought by artificial intelligence in ‌the software landscape.

It follows a broader slide in software stocks after fears that AI agents could supplant some traditional applications that led to a nearly US$1-trillion rout in software ‌stocks globally last ​month.

“The loss of ‌an iconic leader at a time of ​peak uncertainty around the future of software ⁠more broadly, and the positioning of Adobe specifically ⁠in this new GenAI world is bound to further investor ​uncertainty and anxiety around the shares,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Adobe’s shares are down about 23 per cent so far this year, extending a slide that has stretched over the past two years.

The ⁠company, which makes Illustrator, Premiere Pro and other tools for creative professionals, is among a group of SaaS providers including Salesforce that have struggled to win new clients amid a wave of AI start-ups.

On ⁠Thursday, Adobe reported double-digit growth ​in total revenue and customer subscription segments in the first ⁠quarter, reflecting resilient spending on its product suite.

– Reuters

03/13/26 05:21

Honda shares slide nearly 6 per cent as automaker faces first annual loss

Shares in Honda Motor closed down nearly 6 per cent in ⁠Tokyo ​on Friday after the automaker flagged its first annual loss in almost 70 years as ​a listed company, hit ‌by up to US$15.7-billion in restructuring costs tied to its electric-vehicle business.

Honda stock ended the day 5.6 per cent lower ‌at ​1,368 yen, ‌making it the second-largest decliner ​on the benchmark Nikkei 225 and ⁠marking the company’s biggest ⁠one-day fall since early February 2025.

Japan’s ​second-largest automaker said on Thursday it expects a hit of as much as 2.5 trillion yen (US$15.7-billion) as it cancels three ⁠EV models planned for production in the U.S.

It is likely to book as much as 1.3 trillion yen of ⁠those costs this fiscal ​year and 1.2 trillion yen ⁠the next.

Honda is also writing down the ‌value of its China business, where it ​has struggled to compete with rivals such as BYD offering more advanced, software-driven vehicles.

– Reuters

03/13/26 05:03

Oil heads for weekly gains despite US sanctions waiver on Russian oil

Oil prices headed for weekly gains as of Friday, despite the U.S. trying to ease supply concerns by issuing a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil ⁠and petroleum ​products stranded at sea.

Brent futures for May rose US$1.02, or 1 per cent, to US$101.48 a barrel, heading for a weekly increase of nearly 10 per cent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April was up by 94 US cents, or 1.0 per cent, at US$96.67 a barrel, poised for more than a 6-per-cent ​uptick for the week.

The license was issued in what ‌Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, but analysts said this has failed to resolve wider supply constraints.

“ICE Brent futures have already breached $100 per barrel and are still supported today, despite moves to calm the markets with the Russian oil waiver ‌and the ​unprecedented release of emergency stockpiles,” said ‌Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.

“The market sees this as a short-term solution that ​does not address the crux of the supply disruption. The ⁠crude intermonth spreads for future months indicate an unresolved and continued tightness in supply,” Jamil ⁠said.

– Reuters

03/13/26 05:00

Thursday markets recap: North American indexes fall as Iran strikes two oil tankers

North American stocks fell on Thursday, as Iranian strikes on two oil tankers sent crude prices surging toward US$100 a barrel, further exacerbating inflation fears and sending investors fleeing equity markets.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell to a one-month low, ending down 279.23 points, or 0.8 per cent, at 32,840.60, marking its lowest closing level since Feb. 12.

All three major U.S. stock indexes posted steeper declines, sliding more than 1.5 per cent in a broad sell-off, with everything but energy and some defensive stocks suffering steep percentage losses. The S&P 500 notched its biggest three-day percentage drop in a month.

Front month WTI crude futures settled up 9.7 per cent on the day, while Brent settled up 9.2 per cent, touching US$100 a barrel.

“There’s a realization that a resolution to the Middle East conflict is being pushed further out,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. “It’s a sell first, ask questions later type of mentality. There hasn’t been safe sector outside of energy.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42 points, or 1.56 per cent, to 46,677.85, the S&P 500 lost 103.22 points, or 1.52 per cent, to 6,672.58 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 404.15 points, or 1.78 per cent, to 22,311.98.

– Globe staff with wire services