The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI 0.55%) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, which invests in all 3,498 companies listed on American stock exchanges. That means the ETF offers exposure to multitrillion-dollar technology powerhouses like Nvidia and Microsoft, in addition to small-cap growth stories like DigitalOcean and Lemonade.
This high degree of diversification is typically great for producing steady returns with low volatility, but it also means the Vanguard ETF doesn’t perform as well over the long run as ETFs that track more concentrated indexes like the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.61%) or the Nasdaq-100.
With that said, the Vanguard ETF can still produce life-changing results for investors who buy it in 2026. Here’s how it could create a million-dollar fortune over the long run.
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Large caps, small caps, and everything in between
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is weighted by market capitalization, so companies with the highest values have a much greater influence over the fund’s performance than companies with the smallest values. As a result, its top five holdings are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, which have a combined market capitalization of $17 trillion.
Therefore, despite having around 3,500 holdings, a whopping 25.8% of the Vanguard ETF’s assets are parked in those five stocks alone. While that is certainly a big number, those five stocks have a weighting of 28.6% in the S&P 500 and a weighting of 51.6% in the Nasdaq-100. That is part of the reason those indexes have outperformed the Vanguard ETF over the last five years:
Data by YCharts.
On the flip side, the Vanguard ETF will likely experience less downside than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 if a speed bump in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry triggers a sharp sell-off in highly exposed stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Moreover, the ETF gives investors an opportunity to participate in the growth of thousands of small and mid-cap stocks that aren’t present in the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq-100.
Here are a few examples:
- Lemonade: This insurance technology company uses AI to transform the customer experience, calculate premiums, and process claims. Its in-force premium growth has accelerated for nine straight quarters.
- DigitalOcean: While most investors focus on hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft, this company provides AI and cloud services exclusively to small and midsized businesses, which has become an extremely valuable opportunity.
- Upstart Holdings: This company uses AI to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers and originate loans. Management believes this could be a $1 trillion opportunity over the long term.
- Duolingo: This company operates the world’s largest digital language education platform, and it’s using AI to help its users accelerate their learning. It grew its revenue by 39% during 2025 and quadrupled its earnings.
Creating a million-dollar fortune
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has generated a compound annual return of 9.2% since its inception in 2001, but it has produced a much faster return of 15% per year over the last decade, specifically because technologies like cloud computing and AI have contributed so much growth.
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Here’s how long it could take to turn a one-time investment of $100,000 in 2026 into $1 million, based on three different annual returns:
|
Compound Annual Return |
Time To Reach $1 Million |
|---|---|
|
9.2% |
27 years |
|
12.1% (midpoint) |
21 years |
|
15% |
17 years |
Calculations by author.
But not every investor can lay out $100,000 up front, so here’s how long it could take to build a million-dollar fortune by consistently investing just $500 per month in the Vanguard ETF over the long term:
|
Compound Annual Return |
Time To Reach $1 Million |
Total Deposits |
|---|---|---|
|
9.2% |
31 years |
$186,000 |
|
12.1% (midpoint) |
26 years |
$156,000 |
|
15% |
22 years |
$132,000 |
Calculations by author.
I wouldn’t expect the Vanguard ETF to maintain its accelerated annual return of 15% forever, because the technology sector can only do so much heavy lifting on its own. However, AI could fuel above-average returns for the foreseeable future, especially with offshoots like autonomous vehicles and robotics barreling toward commercialization.
With that said, the Vanguard ETF could still create a million-dollar fortune in as little as 31 years, even if its long-term annual return reverts to 9.2%.
Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, DigitalOcean, Duolingo, Lemonade, Microsoft, Nvidia, Upstart, and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
