Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to start week, oil slides amid Trump’s warning to allies on Iran

US stocks rose on Monday as oil prices eased and investors watched for developments stemming from the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.8% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rallied 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved more than 1.2%.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock gained as CEO Jensen Huang took to the stage at the AI leader’s annual developer conference in California. The chip giant expects to see $1 trillion in sales of Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027.

Oil prices dropped roughly 5% on Monday after surging past $100 per barrel earlier in the session amid the Middle East conflict.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose on Monday as CEO Jensen Huang took to the stage at the SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., kicking off the AI leader’s annual developer conference.

Huang said he expects to see $1 trillion in orders of Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027.

The sales figure is an update to last year’s forecast, when Huang said chip sales would total $500 billion through 2026.

Check out more updates from Nvidia’s GTC event here.

Circle (CRCL) stock jumped as much as 10% on Monday amid deepening stablecoin adoption and expectations that the Federal Reserve will push back interest rate cuts.

The issuer’s USDC (USDC-USD) in circulation surpassed $79 billion in March, up 5% year to date and more than 25% since the passage of the GENIUS Act last year, according to Compass Point analysts.

Higher-for-longer interest rates and a growing supply of the stablecoin boost the company’s reserve income. Investors have also pared back expectations that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon as surging oil prices raise concerns about higher inflation.

“Profitability also continues to firm, and Circle strikes us as having plenty of embedded operating leverage,” Compass Point’s Ed Engel wrote Monday, maintaining a Buy rating and a $280 price target.

Wall Street has grown increasingly bullish on the stablecoin issuer despite bitcoin trading remaining range-bound in recent weeks.

“Stablecoin adoption has remained persistent independent of crypto market sentiment despite the strong use-case linked to crypto capital markets,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani noted last week.

Yahoo Finance’s Emma Ockerman reports:

Read more here.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is edging higher today, pushing to the highest level since February and on track for its best day since March 4.

Today’s move doesn’t look dramatic, but that says more about how tough the past two weeks have been. Gains have been hard to come by during the last dozen sessions, leaving most major coins still deep in the red for the year.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is posting a similar setup, though its gains today are a 3x multiple of bitcoin’s, as altcoins broadly catch a stronger bid.

Crypto-linked stocks are following along. Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Robinhood (HOOD) are all modestly higher, while miners like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Hut 8 (HUT) are also in the green.

The bigger technical hurdle still r: a heavy band of resistance in the $80,000–$85,000 area for bitcoin.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock rose 7% in midday trading on Monday after the discount store operator reported an earnings beat but more cautious guidance than the Street expected.

In the fourth quarter, Dollar Tree reported a profit of $2.56 per share, compared with Wall Street analyst estimates of $2.52 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Revenue of $5.45 billion missed expectations of $5.46 billion, which the company attributed to store closures due to severe winter storms.

In a call with analysts, Dollar Tree CEO Michael Creedon said the retailer grew sales across all income levels, though high-income households were its fastest-growing customer cohort as these consumers trade down to less expensive products. Creedon said higher-income consumers drove the discretionary categories, while lower-income shoppers tended to stock up on essential goods.

For 2026, Dollar Tree expects adjusted earnings of $6.50 to $6.90, compared with the Street’s $6.63 estimate.

Executives said that a boost from a more favorable tariff environment since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s most expansive duties would likely be offset by shipping disruptions stemming from the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

The company’s CFO, Stewart Glendinning, also noted that it takes about four months to begin seeing the benefits of lower tariffs, as goods purchased at December’s tariff rates — before the Supreme Court decision — are still cycling through inventory.

Shares in digital memory and storage provider Micron Technology (MU) surged by more than 5% through midday trading on Monday after the company announced plans to build a second chip manufacturing facility in Taiwan.

The new chip facility will be built at a newly acquired site from Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., and it will produce cutting-edge DRAM products, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), to meet AI demand.

Investors were also preparing for the company’s earnings report due after the closing bell on Wednesday.

Micron is expected to report $19.3 billion in revenue, according to estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, representing growth of more than 40% quarter-on-quarter and more than 130% year-on-year. Analysts are estimating adjusted earnings of $8.66 per share, more than 80% over the prior quarter and more than 450% higher than a year ago.

Shares in Micron are up more than 340% year-on-year.

S&P Global analyst Melissa Otto noted in a recent memo that stocks such as Micron and Sandisk (SNDK), which are up more than 1,200% from a year ago, have heavily benefited from the rotation out of software into memory, which is poised to be a large beneficiary of the AI boom and related drive for computing power.

Oil’s latest surge has investors focused on the inflation story — but energy shocks rarely hit markets in just one place.

Instead, they behave more like a game of whack-a-mole. Try to pin the impact on inflation, and the pressure pops up somewhere else: bond yields, currencies, or eventually economic growth.

Earlier, my colleague Jake Conley flagged a Bank of America report that highlighted a version of this risk, noting that markets may be underpricing the potential growth hit from a prolonged Iran conflict. Stocks remain resilient — the S&P 500 is less than 5% from its highs — even as oil climbs and rate expectations shift.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is quietly doing what it often does during energy shocks: rallying. That’s a reminder that global stress and higher oil prices tend to pull capital back toward the world’s reserve currency — a reality that keeps frustrating the dollar-doom narrative.

Oil shocks rarely break markets outright. They just shift the pressure elsewhere.

Transports are one of my primary canaries — and they are quietly jumping higher today.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) is up over 1% — its best day since Feb. 26 — led by strength in United Airlines (UAL), XPO (XPO), Uber (UBER), and Delta Air Lines (DAL). The move isn’t huge, but it stands out given how rough the month has been.

Even with today’s bounce, transports are still down nearly 9% month to date.

Heavyweights like Union Pacific (UNP), CSX (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and FedEx (FDX) remain sharply lower, leaving the group on track for its worst month since December 2024 and set to snap a five-month win streak.

Technically, last week’s lows came right near the transports’ 100-day moving average around 17,600. If that support gives way, this market canary may start singing again.

The war in Iran has entered its third week, yet the S&P 500 (^GSPC) remains less than 5% below its all-time high, and equity valuations are still historically elevated. At the same time, equity risk premiums have narrowed as bond markets push out expectations for when central banks may resume easing policy.

That “priced-for-perfection” set-up could leave equities vulnerable if the conflict evolves into a broader macroeconomic shock, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a recent client note.

“The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the risk that inflation spillovers weaken the bond market and trigger an equity de-rating at the index level,” the strategists wrote. They added that recent labor market data is losing momentum, potentially reducing the economy’s resilience to additional shocks.

Still, the bank noted that US equities have historically proven resilient during geopolitical crises, and energy-driven sell-offs are often short-lived. A quicker resolution to the conflict could reinforce the expectation that any economic damage will be temporary.

“Overall, equities face rising correction risk as valuations are stretched and macro conditions are deteriorating at the margin,” the strategists wrote, pointing to emerging pressures across growth, inflation, credit, and labor indicators.

“But strong fundamentals argue against a sustained bear market,” they added. “Earnings remain resilient, corporate balance sheets are solid, and history suggests geopolitical shocks often create opportunity rather than lasting damage.”

The early pop has been losing steam since the first hour of trading wrapped at about 10:30 a.m., and the leadership setup is worth watching closely.

Micro-caps (IWC) and the Russell 2000 (^RUT, IWM) led for most of the morning, but that edge is narrowing as megacaps trade steadier. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is holding up a bit better now, with large-cap tech (XLK) out front.

Inside tech, chips (SOXX) are doing more of the heavy lifting than software (IGV), though software remains modestly positive.

That rotation matters. If small-caps give way to large-caps from here, and software slips into the red, it would point to a narrower, more defensive tone beneath the surface — and raise the odds of another disappointing close.

Wall Street is assessing the inflationary impact from surging oil prices and what that would mean for the Federal Reserve’s view of the future path for interest rates at its meeting this week.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

Read more here.

The US stock market opened higher on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and watched the continued conflict in the Middle East.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way up with a gain of 1.1% to start Monday’s session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) picked up 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

Oil prices have continued to hold strong with no clear end in sight for the war in the Middle East. Futures for both international benchmark Brent (BZ=F) and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) topped $100 a barrel for the second time since the war began in early trading on Monday before pulling back. West Texas Intermediate traded around $95, while Brent traded at $102, according to Bloomberg data.

In focus for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve, where the FOMC is expected to hold rates steady. That said, the market will look for any and all commentary on the war’s impact on inflation from Chair Jerome Powell.

In equities, Nvidia’s (NVDA) annual GTC event begins Monday with a keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang.

Stock index ETFs (DJI, QQQ, SPY, IWM) are indicated to open with their biggest gap higher since Feb. 6 as several macro pressures ease at once.

Long-term Treasury yields (^TNX, ^TYX) are backing off recent highs, and the dollar index (DXY) is pulling back after briefly pushing above 100 late Friday for the first time since November. Finally, WTI crude oil (CL=F) — which traded above $100 Sunday evening — has slipped back into the mid-$90s.

Five weeks ago, a similar relief rally held through the day (Friday) and extended into the following Wednesday before sellers reemerged on Thursday.

Today I’ll be watching whether those same pressure points return. If the dollar index pushes back toward 100 or crude reclaims $100, the macro squeeze could quickly reappear. And with late-day reversals showing up more frequently in recent weeks, the final hour will be the final verdict on the day’s tape.

Oil prices held above $100 per barrel through Monday morning as key attacks from both sides of the Iran war targeted key infrastructure and showed no signs of an off-ramp for what has become the largest energy crisis since at least the 1970s.

ICE futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, held above $102 per barrel, while those on the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) traded above $95 after cracking the key $100 mark late Sunday night.

Over the weekend, key actions from both sides of the war pointed toward further escalation.

Late Friday night, the US struck a litany of military assets on Kharg Island, the Iranian regime’s primary oil export terminal, with threats to strike oil infrastructure on the island if the conflict continues. At the same time, drone strikes from Iran on Saturday and Monday have halted oil loadings at the key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates as the conflict continues to threaten the wider Gulf region.

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, remains essentially closed to all but a handful of Indian liquefied petroleum gas tankers that made the crossing over the weekend. President Trump called on other world leaders to step up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but those international partners deferred on taking concrete actions.

This week, global central bank meetings will take place, where leaders will have to grapple with whether the war in Iran remains transitory or risks becoming a drawn-out crisis.

“The result is a high stakes stalemate that markets are struggling to price,” Capital analyst Daniela Hathorn wrote in a client note Monday morning. “Energy flows remain significantly constrained, and as long as that persists, the risk of a prolonged global energy shock remains elevated.”

Investors may be underpricing the risk of potential growth slowdowns triggered by the economic fallout of the Iran war, Bank of America global economist Antonio Gabriel wrote in a client note Monday morning.

Even as inflation concerns have risen alongside energy prices, which are likely to feed into headline inflation in the coming months, the US dollar has rallied, and US equities are less than 5% off their highs — bets that could be threatened by a drawn-out conflict.

“While a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly [possible], we view the conflict extending into 2Q as an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out,” Gabriel wrote.

“Markets seem to be pricing a largely transitory shock … In our view, the more disruptive scenarios for global growth are underpriced,” he wrote.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will take the stage at the SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., at 2 p.m. ET, kicking off the AI leader’s annual developer conference.

Our tech editor Daniel Howley previews what to expect from Huang’s keynote and the highly anticipated event:

Read the full GTC preview and follow along for live updates from the event.

Nebius (NBIS) stock soared 14% after the AI cloud company announced it struck a new long-term AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta (META).

Nebius will provide Meta with $12 billion worth of neocloud capacity as part of its deployment of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, starting in 2027. Meta has also committed to purchasing additional compute capacity up to a total of $15 billion over a five-year period.

Last week, Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion investment in Nebius to deploy more than ⁠5 gigawatts of data center capacity by the end of 2030.

Meta stock rose 2.6% on the Nebius news, as well as rumors that it’s planning sweeping layoffs that could affect up to 20% of the company as it looks to offset high artificial intelligence costs. The date and extent of the layoffs have yet to be finalized, according to Reuters, but it could mark Meta’s largest restructuring since late 2022 and early 2023.

Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley takes a look at the pivotal events for markets this week:

Read more here.

Software is breaking investors’ hearts — again.

Just one week after staging its sharpest rebound in nearly a year, the group has faded again, writes Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre:

Read more here.