Stock market faces a ‘toxic triad’ of forces pushing it to a tipping point

The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth week of declines and is edging closer to an inflection point, Piper Sandler’s top technical analysts said on Thursday.

“Equity markets are reaching a tipping point,” a note from the firm said, flagging the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average of 6,600 as the critical point to watch. The S&P 500 briefly fell below that mark during Thursday’s trading session before edging back up.

The stock market has been relatively resilient relative to the dramatic spike in oil prices, but the drop below the key resistance threshold signals that further declines could be looming.

JPMorgan analysts, who cut their 2026 S&P 500 target on Thursday, also flagged 6,600 as a key level to watch. They added that strong support for the index may not materialize until the 6,200 and 6,000, which would mark a roughly 9% drop.

Morgan Stanley technical analysts, meanwhile, believe the index will stabilize sooner, in the 6,400 to 6,500 range, but warn clients about “a wide chop” in the coming weeks.

Here are the forces behind the “toxic macro triad” Piper Sandler see pushing US stocks to the edge.

Sticky inflation

Inflation has emerged as a key worry among investors as the US inches toward one month of war with Iran.

The latest inflation data was in line with economists’ expectations, though still above the Fed’s target. The impacts of surging oil prices and disruptions associated with curtailed flows of oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz have not yet materialized in the economic data.

JPMorgan and Bank of America said the market is too focused on inflation, and that the risks from the war are tilting toward a slowdown in economic activity.

Energy price spikes

Oil price surges have been the dominant force impacting markets in the three weeks of the Iran war.

Brent crude prices have risen more than 75% since the US and Israel attacked Iran, and experts warn oil could see further spikes.

The price rise has led to gas prices exceeding $3.80 per gallon in all 50 US states, according to data from AAA.

A cautious Fed

The Fed held interest rates steady at its March meeting, as expected. Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed members are taking a wait-and-see approach as worries about the US economy emerge.

Markets have been hoping for more cuts, as lower rates are a big part of the bull case for stocks, but they might be waiting longer than expected.

The central bank faces the challenge of balancing its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Powell said that progress on inflation needs be seen before rate cuts can be penciled in.

“If we don’t see that progress, you won’t see a rate cut,” he said.