Stock Market Today (LIVE): S&P 500 Set for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Crude Dips and Fed Rate Fears Linger

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Opening Bell

9:35 am

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell Friday, tracking toward their fourth consecutive losing week as Brent crude surged to $110. While Israel’s leadership suggests the Iran conflict could conclude faster than feared, some analysts warn that market stability hinges entirely on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the friction, today’s “quadruple witching” event — the simultaneous expiration of trillions in derivatives — is expected to amplify intraday swings. Despite the Dow nearing correction territory, some analysts argue equities haven’t yet priced in the 2% hit to household purchasing power caused by the energy shock.

Amazon’s “Fire Phone” Rises from the Ashes

8:30 am — AMZN -0.51% in pre-market trading

Amazon (AMZN 1.00%) is reportedly taking a second shot at the smartphone market with a secretive new project codenamed “Transformer.” Developing within its devices and services unit, the device aims to succeed where the 2014 Fire Phone failed by focusing on deep “mobile personalization” and seamless synchronization with Alexa. Unlike its predecessor, which prioritized shopping, Transformer is designed as a ubiquitous AI assistant–a “Star Trek” style conduit intended to capture the high-value mobile user data currently controlled by Apple (AAPL 0.47%) and Alphabet (GOOG 1.48%). While internal sources caution the project remains subject to financial shifting, the initiative signals Jeff Bezos’ refusal to cede the primary gateway of the digital “everything store” to rival operating systems.

• The Data Moat: By owning the hardware, Amazon can integrate Prime benefits and purchase history into a local AI agent, bypassing the privacy restrictions third-party platforms have placed on its apps.
• Alexa’s Final Form: Transformer represents a critical pivot for the Alexa ecosystem; by moving the voice assistant from a stationary kitchen speaker to a mobile device, Amazon ensures its AI remains relevant in an increasingly “on-the-go” generative AI landscape.

AI Chip Smuggling Scandal Rocks Server Ecosystem

8:15 am — SMCI -25.50%, NVDA -0.57% in pre-market trading

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 27.09%) is reeling after its co-founder, Wally Liaw, was charged in a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle high-end Nvidia (NVDA 1.39%) AI servers to China. Federal prosecutors allege Liaw and other insiders used a “pass-through” entity in Southeast Asia to ship restricted hardware in unmarked boxes, bypassing strict U.S. export controls. While Supermicro itself is not named as a defendant, shares tumbled as the indictment revealed the illicit entity had become one of the company’s largest customers, accounting for nearly $100 million in quarterly revenue. The scandal puts a harsh spotlight on the “server partner” ecosystem, raising fears that regulators may tighten oversight on how Nvidia chips are distributed globally.

• Compliance Crisis: This probe reignites transparency concerns for Supermicro, which only recently emerged from a 2024 auditing scandal that forced a change in its financial leadership.
• Nvidia’s “Losing Proposition”: While Nvidia maintains it does not support diverted systems, the sheer scale of the $2.5 billion bypass undermines industry claims that large-scale smuggling is non-existent, potentially inviting more aggressive federal audits.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — TSLA -0.62% in pre-market trading

Reuters reports Tesla (TSLA 2.31%) is looking to buy Chinese-made solar equipment worth $2.9 billion in a bid to boost solar power capacity for Tesla and CEO Elon Musk’s related companies, a clear signal of intent for renewable energy.

• Aiming for 100 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2028: As of 2024, only 10% – or 135 gigawatts – of total U.S. capacity was solar-powered. The push by Tesla could trigger regulatory concern, given the U.S. government’s desire to reduce reliance on Chinese companies.
• Pilot tests of trucking model Semi are well received: Tesla is poised to rollout deliveries of its Semi truck this summer, with the WSJ reporting positive feedback from truckers around the centered driving position, faster charging, and 500-mile range. Tesla is recommended by both Team Hidden Gems and Team Rule Breakers, with the stock beating the S&P 500 by 74% since the Stock Advisor rec by Team Hidden Gems in May 2023.

McCormick Targets Unilever’s Food Division

7:00 am — MKC +0.20%, UL +0.93% in pre-market trading

Unilever (UL +0.70%) is in talks to sell its massive food division to spice giant McCormick & Co. (MKC 0.89%) in a deal that could be valued at up to $37 billion. The move would mark the final step in a decade-long transformation for the FTSE 100 company, allowing it to exit slower-growth categories like Hellmann’s mayonnaise, Marmite, and Pot Noodle to focus entirely on high-margin beauty and personal care. McCormick, which is expected to fund the acquisition through a mix of stock and cash, would instantly become a global pantry powerhouse. Analysts at Jefferies suggest the divested unit carries an enterprise value of roughly 9.5 times EBITDA, providing Unilever with a massive cash pile to fuel further acquisitions in the premium skincare and wellness sectors.

• Strategic Slimdown: By carving out foods following its previous sales of tea and ice cream units, Unilever is betting that a “pure-play” beauty portfolio will command a higher valuation multiple from investors.
• Spice Giant Scales Up: For McCormick, the acquisition offers a rare opportunity to dominate the “center of the aisle” by pairing its market-leading seasonings with some of the world’s most recognizable condiment brands.

Amazon Acquires Rivr to Crack Last-Mile Delivery

6:45 am — AMZN -0.80% in pre-market trading

Amazon (AMZN 1.00%) has quietly acquired Swiss robotics start-up Rivr to solve the “final 100 yards” of logistics. Rivr’s unique hardware–a four-legged robot on wheels often described as a “dog on roller skates”–can autonomously climb stairs and navigate curbs, obstacles that grounded Amazon’s previous “Scout” sidewalk bots. While terms weren’t disclosed, Rivr was recently valued at $100 million and had been a standout in the Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund. This move coincides with reports that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is separately seeking to raise $100 billion for a “manufacturing transformation” fund. That vehicle aims to acquire industrial firms in aerospace and chipmaking to radically automate them using “physical AI” developed by his new start-up, Project Prometheus.

• Last-Mile Margin Play: By automating the trek from the van to the doorstep, Amazon aims to slash the high labor costs of its third-party delivery network while improving safety metrics.
• Bezos’s $100B Shadow: The founder’s parallel interest in “Physical AI” suggests a broader strategic shift toward replacing human intervention in complex physical tasks across the entire global supply chain.

Top of the Morning

6:30 am

Whenever something big happens in the world, the markets will react. Heck, it doesn’t even have to be a big event if it catches the imagination (and fears) of Wall Street and Main Street.

Today, it’s obviously the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and Iran’s response. This is affecting oil. (It’s the Mideast, remember, everything there affect oil.) Oil prices have spiked and everyone’s trying to come to terms with that.

Even more, they’re trying to figure out how to profit from it. Human, all too human.

Higher oil prices will almost certainly lead to higher prices for pretty much everything. Transportation costs, if nothing else, will go up, but petroleum is used all throughout the economy, not just as transportation fuel. That means higher prices and lower margins, right? How should I position my portfolio to avoid the expected pain?

On the other side, where can I put my money to work to make money off this? Oil companies? Pick and shovel oil-related companies? Nuclear or wind or solar companies? (If oil prices stay high, won’t electric cars become more popular, which means other sources of electricity become more in demand?)

Honestly, just slow down people. Prices on a lot of this (if not all of it) have already moved. You now want to sell some stuff that could be hurt at lower prices and buy some stuff that could benefit at higher prices? Isn’t that kinda backward?

ICYMI: Thursday’s Scoreboard

5:45 am — ALAB +0.51% in pre-market trading

Astera Labs (ALAB 4.12%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Before the Opening Bell

5:00 am

Stock futures are edging higher Friday morning as investors cling to a tentative de-escalation in the Middle East. While the S&P 500 is still on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline, sentiment stabilized after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran’s missile infrastructure has been “decimated,” potentially shortening the war’s timeline. President Trump added to the relief, stating the economic fallout has been “less than expected.” However, the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative remains a potent drag; with the Federal Reserve highlighting energy-driven inflation risks, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite both sit roughly 8% below their record highs, teetering on the edge of official correction territory.

• Energy Relief Valve: Brent crude fell below $110 per barrel after Japan and the EU signaled a joint mission to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, providing a much-needed breather for fuel-heavy sectors like Delta Air Lines (DAL 2.55%).
• AI Data Center Demand: Despite the macro gloom, Meta Platforms (META 1.89%) and Nvidia (NVDA 1.39%) continue to anchor the tech sector as new infrastructure deals in Europe suggest AI spending remains decoupled from the broader geopolitical chaos.

This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Jim Mueller, CFA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla and has the following options: long January 2027 $215 calls on Amazon, long January 2028 $230 calls on Amazon, short January 2027 $225 calls on Amazon, short January 2028 $240 calls on Amazon, and short March 2026 $210 puts on Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, McCormick, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Astera Labs, Delta Air Lines, and Unilever. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.