Summary
- US equities fell for a fourth week through Mar. 20, but the decline has been orderly so far.
- Financial markets are forward‑looking pricing systems, continually scanning for indications that the future may diverge – however slightly – from current conditions.
- For now, current conditions suggest that the market has yet to reach maximum pessimism.
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The Iran war is now in its fourth week, with no sign that the conflict is nearing an end. Conditions for a stalemate or ceasefire may be brewing, but for now no one is blinking. Without even a hint of de‑escalation, the
James Picerno is the director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager that is the adviser to The Brinsmere Funds, a pair of global asset allocation ETFs. He also edits CapitalSpectator.com and The US Business Cycle Research Report (CapitalSpectator.com/premium-research). He is the author of three books, including “Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return.” Previously he was a financial journalist at Bloomberg and before that at Dow Jones.
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