Stock Market Today (LIVE): Futures Surge as U.S. and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire, Sending Brent Crude Down Nearly 15%

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The $134B Fight for the Future of AI

10:10 am

Elon Musk has escalated his legal offensive against OpenAI, filing for the removal of CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman just weeks before jury selection begins. Musk alleges he was defrauded into donating $38 million to a nonprofit that shifted into a profit-seeking powerhouse. The world’s richest man is also demanding that Microsoft (MSFT +1.66%) and OpenAI return up to $134 billion in “wrongful gains” to charity. This high-stakes brawl in Oakland federal court directly pits Musk’s xAI — now part of the $1.25 trillion SpaceX empire — against his former colleagues in a fight that could reshape the AI industry’s leadership and corporate structure.

• The Silicon Valley Civil War: OpenAI is firing back, accusing Musk of a harassment campaign aimed at slowing down a competitor to his own interests, including Tesla (TSLA 0.05%) and the newly merged SpaceX-xAI entity.
• IPO Complications Loom: With SpaceX recently filing for a record-breaking IPO, the outcome of this trial could dictate whether Musk can successfully dismantle the dominant market position of his rivals before going public.

Fed Rate Cut Back on the Table

9:40 am

The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has fundamentally shifted market expectations for the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, odds for a rate reduction by December jumped to 43%, up from just 14% before the truce. As energy-driven inflation threats subside alongside plunging oil prices, traders are betting Chair Jerome Powell may finally have the breathing room to shore up a plodding labor market. While policymakers likely remain cautious until a permanent deal is reached, the “inflation shock” that previously paralyzed the Fed is rapidly dissipating.

• Inflation Data Dual-Threat: Investors face a volatile 48 hours as Thursday’s PCE index and Friday’s CPI report reveal the exact damage hostilities inflicted on consumer prices before the ceasefire took hold.
• Global Domino Effect: Analysts at Evercore ISI suggest a successful negotiation could trigger a coordinated easing cycle, putting rate cuts back in play for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Opening Bell

9:35 am

Wall Street erupted in a massive relief rally Wednesday after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran. The “double-sided” ceasefire, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a 16% collapse in crude prices and a broad rotation back into growth equities. Beyond the shipping channel, markets are reacting to a potential breakthrough regarding the removal of nuclear material from Iran in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief.

Delta Cuts Capacity to Guard Margins From Fuel

8:00 am — DAL +12.37% in pre-market trading

Delta Air Lines (DAL +6.63%) CEO Ed Bastian is taking aggressive action to combat a “historic” spike in fuel costs, announcing a meaningful reduction in capacity growth to prioritize margin preservation. Despite the $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by Middle East hostilities, Bastian remains bullish on the “durability” of the airline’s financial foundation and its premium-heavy customer base. “Demand remains strong, and we are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow,” Bastian told reporters Wednesday, noting a “downward bias” on growth until the energy environment stabilizes. While competitors struggle with unhedged exposure, Bastian highlighted Delta’s unique advantage in owning a refinery near Philadelphia, which is expected to generate a $300 million benefit this quarter.

• Industry-Wide Shakeup: Bastian anticipates that persistently high fuel prices will force “structural changes” across the sector, likely pressuring low-cost carriers while favoring premium-focused giants like United Airlines (UAL +10.52%).
• Consumer Resilience: Despite rising fares and new baggage fees, Bastian observed that 90% of revenue is coming from the top end of the “K-shaped” economy, stating, “Our consumer is really healthy… they’re investing in the experience economy.”

Greece Sets 15+ Rule for Social Platforms

7:45 am — META +4.95%, SNAP +5.21%, GOOG +3.96% in pre-market trading

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis confirmed Wednesday that Greece will ban children under 15 from social media platforms starting January 1, 2027. Citing a “scientific consensus” on rising anxiety, sleep deprivation, and addictive platform designs, the mandate follows a similar restrictive move by Australia. With 80% domestic adult support, Mitsotakis aims to use this initiative as a catalyst for broader European Union regulation. The Greek Safer Internet Centre reports that 75% of current young users are only primary-school age, highlighting the significant demographic shift this policy will force upon major digital advertising and engagement models.

• Big Tech Revenue Risks: Stricter age gates pose a direct threat to the long-term user acquisition funnels for Meta Platforms (META +3.26%) and Snap (SNAP +2.29%), potentially cooling engagement metrics in the Eurozone.
• Regulatory Contagion: As Greece pressures the EU for unified age limits, Alphabet (GOOG +3.31%) may face increased compliance costs and potential ad-revenue declines if YouTube and other social hubs are swept into broader continental bans.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7.30am

S&P 500 futures soared over 2.5% this morning, with Nasdaq futures up over 3%, as investors cheered confirmation of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, alongside the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz.

• Pakistan invites both sides for talks on Friday: Pakistan’s Prime Minister said he’s setting the stage “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” as markets assess if the 10-point plan for the conditional ceasefire can lead to a broader de-escalation.
• Risk-on cross-asset market reaction: Brent oil futures fell over 14% lower to $93 per barrel, with Bitcoin (BTC +4.48%) up 3.6% to $71,800 and gold rallying over 2% above $4,800 per ounce.

ICYMI: Tuesday’s Scoreboard

6:30 am — FRPT +4.60% in pre-market trading

Freshpet (FRPT +5.06%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

GoPro Slashes 23% of Staff in Restructuring

6:15 am — GPRO +2.30% in pre-market trading

GoPro (GPRO +5.71%) announced plans to eliminate 23% of its workforce as the action-camera pioneer fights to reverse persistent losses. The restructuring, involving 145 layoffs by year-end, comes after the company missed its 2025 profitability target despite aggressive cost-cutting efforts. CEO Nicholas Woodman cited mounting macroeconomic pressures–including high memory costs and tariffs–as primary obstacles to growth. While the company is pivoting toward AI-driven hardware and processors to revitalize its brand, it must first navigate an estimated $15 million charge for this latest round of downsizing.

• Persistent Growth Hurdles: Despite cutting expenses by 26% last year, GoPro’s full-year revenue continues to slide, highlighting the difficulty of competing against high-end smartphones and versatile hardware from Alphabet (GOOG +3.31%).
• AI Transformation Bet: The company is pinning its recovery on new GP3 imaging processors and AI software integration, attempting to evolve from a hardware-only play into a high-margin digital ecosystem.

White House Holds Firm as Ford Absorbs $3B Hit

5:45 am — F +2.86% in pre-market trading

The Trump administration has rejected requests from Ford (F +5.17%) and other automakers for relief from 50% aluminum tariffs following devastating fires at a key New York supply plant, per The Wall Street Journal. The Novelis facility, which provides sheet metal for the best-selling F-150, remains offline, forcing manufacturers to import metal at a massive premium. Ford estimates the disruption has already cost $2 billion, with another $1 billion in losses expected this year. Despite a January factory visit from the President, officials have signaled no intention to waive duties, leaving domestic automakers to absorb surging delivery premiums that now reach $2,500 per metric ton.

• Detroit’s Bottom Line: The refusal to grant exemptions squeezes margins for General Motors (GM +4.77%) and Stellantis (STLA +5.46%), as a new tariff overhaul may soon tax finished metal components even more aggressively.
• Supply Chain Fragility: Dependence on the Oswego plant highlights a single point of failure for U.S. auto production, as even Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB +0.61%) subsidiaries in the manufacturing sector face rising costs for domestic aluminum.

Before the Opening Bell

4:00 am

Stock futures surged Wednesday following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, narrowly averting a massive military escalation. Just hours before a critical bombing deadline, President Trump and Iranian officials agreed to a temporary cessation of hostilities and a coordinated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. International crude prices cratered nearly 15% on the news, with Brent crude falling to approximately $93 per barrel as supply chain panic eased. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the immediate de-escalation provides a vital reprieve for global markets and energy-sensitive sectors.

• Airline Earnings Impact: Delta Air Lines (DAL +6.63%) reports quarterly results this morning, with investors laser-focused on how recent jet fuel spikes and Middle East flight suspensions dented the bottom line.
• Refining Advantage: Despite sectorwide fuel pressure, Delta may show relative resilience compared to peers due to its ownership of a Pennsylvania refinery, providing some insulation from the volatile oil markets dominated by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB +0.61%) energy holdings.

This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Freshpet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines, General Motors, and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.