Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures mixed as PPI inflation data comes in hot

Wholesale inflation came in higher than expected in April, data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.

Producer prices rose 1.4% in April over the previous month, far above the 0.5% increased expected by economists. It also outstripped March’s revised gain of 0.7%.

The “core” reading — which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs — showed producer prices advanced by 1% over the previous month. That was more than double the 0.3% growth economists had predicted and steeply above March’s revised gain of 0.2%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline prices rose by 6% in April, above estimates of 4.8% and outstripping March’s 4.3% print. Core inflation came in at 5.2%, hotter than estimates of 4.3% and previous month’s 4% revised gain.

Morgan Stanley raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800, citing an unexpectedly strong earnings season that has powered the benchmark to record highs.

Growth to 8,000 would represent a roughly 8% upside over the index’s 7,400 close on Tuesday. Growth to the bank’s updated 12-month outlook target of 8,300 would represent 12% growth for the index.

“Our bullish index view is an ⁠earnings story, not a multiple expansion one,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Mike Wilson said. “Over the next 12 months, we see the rolling recovery continuing to progress, driven by a strong ‌earnings ⁠environment as positive operating leverage persists and is further enhanced by AI adoption.”

First quarter profits for companies in the S&P 500 have grown 27% throughout the season, far above the 12% analysts had expected, according to Bloomberg. Roughly 83% of the 440 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings up to May 8 have beaten analyst estimates, Reuters noted.

The heightened outlook from one of Wall Street’s major banks comes even as geopolitical turmoil has wrangled the global market, with the war in Iran, US-China relations, the AI build-out, and complications for the Federal Reserve all in focus.

Resiliency throughout that chaos — “despite geopolitical risk, private credit concerns and AI disruption” — is “supportive of our view,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Alibaba (BABA) stock fell 3% in premarket on Wednesday before paring losses to less than 1% following its quarterly earnings report. The Chinese tech giant has been increasing spending on AI and user experience efforts.

Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferre explains what’s behind the move:

The Chinese e-commerce and cloud giant reported a 3% increase in fourth quarter revenue on Wednesday, missing analyst expectations.

Alibaba’s earnings were weighed down by heavier spending on AI initiatives, cloud infrastructure expansion, and continued investment in its rapid-delivery business, which focuses on fulfilling orders within an hour.

Cloud revenue surged an annualized 38% to $6.13 billion, roughly in line with Wall Street estimates.

Earlier this year, the company split its artificial intelligence operations from its cloud computing division and appointed CEO Eddie Wu to head the newly established “Alibaba Token Hub” unit as it pushes to turn its AI investments into a profitable business.

Read more here.

Silver is perking up, copper just hit a record, and gold is sitting out the move, notes Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre in today’s Chart of the Day.

He writes:

Silver futures (SI=F) and copper futures (HG=F) have been rallying hand-in-hand lately, while gold futures (GC=F) have drifted lower.

The metals market is drawing a line between safe-haven demand and hard-infrastructure demand — and right now the AI build-out is showing up on the copper-and-silver side.

… Data centers don’t run on chips alone. They need power, wiring, cooling systems, backup equipment, grid upgrades, and physical construction. Copper is the obvious beneficiary. Silver’s role is less obvious to general investors, but it has heavy industrial uses too, especially in electronics, electrical equipment, and solar.

Read more here.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was a last-minute addition to Trump’s delegation to China. Huang was not on the initial list of CEOs coming, but he joined the flight at a refueling stop for Air Force One at Anchorage International Airport on Tuesday night.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk was already on board, according to a White House official.

Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports that Huang’s initial lack of attendance was attributed to worries among the White House’s more hawkish national security leaders regarding his willingness to push Trump toward opening up the Chinese market.

But reports suggest Trump apparently overrode those concerns, calling Huang himself to extend the invitation.

Other CEOs visiting China include Tim Cook of Apple (AAPL), Larry Fink of BlackRock (BLK), Kelly Ortberg of Boeing, Brian Sikes of Cargill, and Jane Fraser of Citi (C).

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

The worsening shortage in global memory chips due to the artificial intelligence buildout is driving a widening gulf in corporate results and stock performances.

Shares of memory makers Micron Technology Inc. (MU) and Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.KS, SSNLF) have surged to record highs on blockbuster results driven by buoyant product prices. Meanwhile, consumer products makers from HP Inc. (HPQ) to Nintendo Co. (NTDOY, 7974.T) have been weighed down by profit pressures stemming from higher chip costs.

The squeeze shows how AI is reshaping the chip cycle, turning memory from a commodity input into a critical bottleneck. That has made pricing power the dividing line in global equities: suppliers are posting windfall gains, while device makers face higher costs and weaker margins.

The crisis has been apparent in recent results. Memory pricing was mentioned more than 550 times in company earnings calls and quarterly reports so far this year — already more than any full year in data compiled by Bloomberg tracking global equities since 1999.

“It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the memory crunch is not only worse than feared but also becoming more prolonged than had been expected,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in London. “With AI demand continuing to surge, what we now hear from those close to the issue is that we might see the crunch continuing in some manner potentially as far as 2030.”

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Oil steadied after rising almost 8% over the past three sessions as a resolution to the Middle East conflict remains elusive, with Iranian exports showing further strain from a US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent (BZ=F) crude traded near $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures were below $102. There were no ocean-going tankers observed at Iran’s Kharg Island over the past several days, satellite images show, the first sign of an extended halt at the nation’s main export hub since hostilities began.

The Iran war is unlikely to feature heavily in talks between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the US leader told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, saying trade discussions would be prioritized. He added that, “we have Iran very much under control.”

Read more here.