The S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday as investors rotated into old-economy sectors while semiconductor stocks remained under pressure. Now, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will build on those gains at Wednesday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at 7,428.78, after opening at 7,395.55. The July 29 Polymarket contract implied a 70% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday could prove to be one of the most consequential sessions of the earnings season, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision before Chairman Kevin Warsh‘s press conference.
The Bull Case
Tuesday’s rally reflected continued rotation into sectors outside technology, helped by stronger-than-expected earnings and falling oil prices.
Investors also expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with CME FedWatch data indicating markets largely anticipate the central bank will remain on hold.
S&P 500 futures were modestly higher early Wednesday, climbing 0.18%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The July 28 Polymarket contract attracted roughly $33,000 in traded volume, remaining relatively subdued compared with the elevated participation seen earlier this month. The S&P 500 opened at 7,395.55, below Monday’s close of 7,413.18, meaning the contract ultimately resolved “Down.”
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