As investors say farewell to a week marked by a Federal Reserve meeting, surprise labor market data and the latest corporate earnings, they’re left trying to figure out what it all means for a stock market that’s still deciding where it wants to go. All three of the major market indexes are on track to finish the week higher following Friday’s rally, fueled by weaker-than-expected April jobs figures that pushed up the unemployment rate a touch and drove down Treasury yields — reigniting hope that interest rates will come down this year after all. That added to the market’s recovery from the three-week-long correction that took down the S & P 500 by 5.5% from the late March all-time high to the mid-April low. The Nasdaq Composite climbed about 1.4% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.1% and the S & P 500 was ahead by 0.6%. The Fed and economic policy were top of mind this week given the central bank’s Wednesday decision to yet again leave interest rates unchanged , as it has since last summer. Chairman Jerome Powell appeased traders by indicating that the central bank’s next move is unlikely to take rates higher, though the three major stock averages ended the day mixed . Central bank officials have continued to say their policy moves are dependent on the course of inflation, while also noting little recent progress in batting down price increases. But the Fed won’t see any new inflation numbers next week, leaving questions unanswered as to whether prices really are cooling enough to warrant a change in stance. “The market’s a little bit confused,” said Larry Tentarelli, founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “Investors might be a little bit in a gray area, because we don’t know what to expect.” Bond yields pulled back Friday following the latest payroll report. The 10-year Treasury yieldended the day around 4.50% after surpassing 4.6% earlier in the week, while the 2-year yield eased to around 4.81% after topping the 5% mark. “The markets have been concerned that economic growth was too strong and progress on inflation was stalled,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth. “This report leans the other way, making both the equity market and bond market very happy.” With the age-old “sell-in-May and go away” adage in mind, investors have wondered if the recent weakness is part of a short-term consolidation or the start of a larger downturn. But many pros note that this correction phase is normal in the context of a market that hit new all-time highs as recently as five weeks ago. This week included the conclusion of April’s trading month, which marked the first down month of the year for all three major market averages. It also marked the worst monthly performance for the the Dow since September 2022. While the three major indexes remain down in the second quarter, all are up for the year. And this week’s 11th-hour rally raises the question of whether the market has gotten its momentum back. “Investors are now questioning whether the pullback that we experienced from March 28 through April 19 has come to an end,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “There’s still the possibility of the market experiencing a bit deeper decline, but certainly not a deep correction or even the beginning of a new bear market.” Indeed, some recent earnings reports have raised doubts about the economy, with brands from McDonald’s and Starbucks evidencing signs of strain among consumers. Rate debate Stovall said traders breathed a “sigh of relief” following Powell’s commentary that the central bank’s next move is unlikely to push rates higher. But that didn’t answer the question puzzling Wall Street : When will the cost of borrowing actually start to unwind? Economists’ outlooks range widely on how many cuts might come this year: Citigroup sees four; Bank of America just one. However, Friday’s cool jobs report has put the potential for an interest rate cut as early as September back in play, according to the CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool . Even in a higher-for-longer environment, the fact that the economy is still expanding and contributing to earnings growth offers reasons to be bullish, according to Tom Hainlin, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “To us, that speaks to an environment where we think stocks outperform bonds at the margin,” he said. While no new inflation numbers are scheduled for release next week, investors will see reports on March wholesale inventories, March consumer credit and May consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. “Next week, actually, will be very quiet on the economic calendar,” Tentarelli said. No major releases “could be nice for a change.” AI trade Though interest rates took center stage this week, investors also continued monitoring companies tied to the artificial intelligence boom amid the stocks’ recent choppiness. Super Micro Computer dropped almost 9% for the week after missing revenue expectations in its fiscal third quarter. But Nvidia , the dominant AI name, was able to move into the green with Friday’s rally, putting it 1.2% higher on the week. Despite this week’s mixed action, both are scoring huge gains this year. Tentarelli and CFRA’s Stovall both said investors should keep their AI positions, regardless of any price swings after the industry’s huge run. “I think, long term, that the AI trade has plenty of gas in the tank,” Tentarelli said. While about four out of five S & P 500 companies have already reported earnings, key names including Disney , Uber and Lyft arrive next week. About 79% of corporations that have posted results so far have surpassed Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, May 6 No economic data of note Earnings: Loews, Spirit Airlines, Tyson Foods, BioNTech, Hims & Hers, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Lucid Group, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property Group, Aecom, Microchip Tech., Rocket Lab. Goodyear Tire, Int’l. Flavors & Fragrances, Marriott Vacations, Noble Corp., Vornado Realty, Coty, BellRing Brands, Beyond, Cabot Tuesday, May 7 3 p.m. Consumer credit (March) Earnings: UBS, BP, Nintendo, Squarespace, Kenvue, Aramark, Gogo, Energizer, Tempur Sealy, Bloomin’ Brands, Crocs, Datadog, Duke Energy, Rockwell Automation, Spirit AeroSystems, TransDigm, Expeditors, Nikola, Walt Disney, Ferrari, Globalfoundries, NRG Energy, Perrigo, Electronic Arts, Cirrus Logic, iRobot, Redfin, Lyft, TripAdvisor, Adaptive Biotech, Arista Networks, Dutch Bros., Kyndryl, Marqeta, Oddity Tech , Olo, Sonos, Toast , Upstart Holdings, Virgin Galactic, Twilio, IAC/InterActive, Match Group, McKesson, Rivian Automotive, Brighthouse, Occidental Petroleum, Assurant, Angi, Kinross Gold, Astera Labs, Diamond Offshore, Reddit Wednesday, May 8 10 a.m. Wholesale inventories (March) Earnings: Anheuser-Busch InBev, Edgewell Personal Care, Embraer, Elanco Animal Health, United Parks & Resorts, ODP, Emerson Electric, Brookfield, New York Times, Performance Food Group, Reynolds Consumer Products, Shopify, Teva Pharma, Uber Technologies, Brink’s, Tegna, Hain Celestial, Choice Hotels, Dine Brands, Liberty Broadband, Affirm Holdings, Fox Corp., Ambev, Cushman & Wakefield, Liberty Media, Valvoline, Arm Holdings, Airbnb, Robinhood, Beyond Meat, Bumble, Kodiak Gas Services, NuSkin, Solaredge Technologies, TKO Group, Vizio, AMC Entertainment, Cheesecake Factory, News Corp., Toyota Motors, Celanese, Instacart, Klaviyo Thursday, May 9 8:30 a.m. Continuing jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Earnings: Nissan, Cedar Fair, Six Flags, Yeti, Hanesbrands, Planet Fitness, Sally Beauty, Tapestry, US Foods, Warby Parker, Krispy Kreme, Hyatt Hotels, Warner Bros. Discovery, Roblox, Viatris, Papa John’s, Hilton Grand Vacations, Warner Music Group, Solventum, Dropbox, Akamai, Figs, Sweetgreen, Unity Software, Yelp, Synaptics, H & R Block, Iamgold, Fidelis Insurance, Gen Digital, Savers Value Village Friday, May 10 10 a.m. Michigan sentiment (May) 2 p.m. Treasury budget (April) Earnings: Honda Motor, AMC Networks
Interest rates and the AI-fueled rally remain top of mind for stock investors in the week ahead
May 3, 2024
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