The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield recently hit 5%, its highest level since 2007. Three major catalysts fueled that rally. First, inflation — exacerbated by the ongoing war in Iran — drove the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2023.
Second, many companies issued more corporate debt to invest in new AI technologies. Lastly, the U.S. government issued even more debt to cover its soaring expenses. As corporate and government bonds jockeyed for investor capital, borrowing costs skyrocketed across the board.
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If those macro headwinds don’t dissipate, the 10-Year yield will remain stubbornly high. Let’s see why that’s generally bad news for stocks and a double-edged sword for bonds.
Why do high Treasury yields hurt stocks?
As yields on 10-Year Treasuries climb above 5%, they become safer, higher-yielding income investments than most dividend stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) only has a combined yield of 1%, while the popular income-oriented Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD) pays a trailing yield of 3%. Many of those investors will ditch their stocks and rotate toward T-bills.
Many higher-growth stocks are also trading at premium valuations. When interest rates are low, investors are willing to pay a premium for their future growth, and those companies can easily borrow more money to expand. However, rising interest rates compress those valuations by pushing investors toward more conservative investments while boosting borrowing costs. That’s why rising Treasury yields typically create headwinds for high-flying tech stocks.
Why do higher yields pose challenges for bonds?
Higher Treasury yields make newly issued government bonds more appealing investments for income investors. Corporate bonds, which need to be issued at higher yields to keep pace with U.S. Treasuries, will also attract more attention.
However, the market prices for older bonds issued at lower interest rates will decline as those higher-yielding bonds enter the market. For example, a bond previously issued with a 3% coupon could see its value dip from $1.00 to $0.80 per dollar as interest rates rise.
For long-term investors, that temporary dip in the bond’s value shouldn’t matter because they’ll still receive $1.00 per dollar invested once it matures. However, that decline will cause headaches for short-term traders who plan to sell the bonds before they mature. Higher interest rates and Treasury yields won’t hurt bonds as much as stocks, but they’ll still make older bonds less valuable and drive investors toward newer, higher-yielding bonds.
