Rich Duprey
4 min read
Quick Read
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TMUS shares have fallen 26% year to date to near a 52-week low, even as T-Mobile raised free cash flow guidance to a range of $18.4B to $18.8B.
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Shares dropped 7.71% after reports SpaceX is holding cell tower talks for Starlink Mobile, compounding a 10.75% earnings-day selloff.
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Wall Street forecasts Q3 EPS of $2.91, implying 21% year-over-year growth, but churn from a rate-plan update remains the key wildcard.
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T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) reports third-quarter results on Oct. 28 with shares at $146.54, down 26.25% year to date. The company generates a lot of cash. This report shows whether that cash can steady a falling stock.
Record Margins, Shrinking Share Price
Last quarter delivered revenue of $22.79B, up 7.8%, and EPS of $2.99. Core Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $9.54B, with margin expanding to 50.2%. Management raised the Adjusted Free Cash Flow outlook to $18.4B to $18.8B and increased the 2026 shareholder return authorization to $18.2B.
Shares still fell 10.75% on earnings day. Then on Friday they slipped 7.71% after reports that SpaceX is holding cell tower talks for Starlink Mobile (Forbes). That follows SpaceX’s $2.9 billion purchase of Grain Management’s 800MHz spectrum. The stock now trades near its 52-week low of $146.32 at about 18x forward earnings.
Wall Street Expects Double-Digit EPS Growth
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Churn, Pricing and the Starlink Question
Management already lowered the bar for Q3 account growth. It guided to about 250,000 postpaid net account additions, down from 277,000 in Q2, because a rate-plan update should temporarily raise account churn. Postpaid phone churn will be my main focus. It was 0.85% in Q2 versus 0.89% a year ago.
