NOTE walked into its Q3 2026 earnings with the stock down over the past week and month, despite a longer 90 day gain and a P/E multiple well below peers. Then the company posted record quarterly sales of SEK 1,057m and kept earnings per share close to SEK 2. That mix of strong top line and steady profit per share clashes with the recent share price drift.
The main factor appears to be sentiment. Investors have been focused on weaker net profit margins and debt coverage, while the latest quarter highlights revenue strength that does not align with the cautious trading pattern.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
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Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK 1,057m vs. SEK 830m (up about 27%)
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Net Income (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK 57m vs. SEK 54m (up about 6%)
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Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK 2.00 vs. SEK 1.90 (up about 5%)
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Underlying Operating Margin (Q3 2026): 9.3% with underlying operating profit of SEK 98m (record quarterly sales, alongside mid single digit margin compression compared with the 6% trailing net margin trend)
NOTE’s backlog for early 2027 is already up about 20%. Ask Charlie what NOTE’s 2027 orderbook really signals for growth.
Evaluating NOTE’s Execution Led Bullish Thesis
The bullish story rests on NOTE turning backlog and spare capacity into profitable volume as supply chains ease.
“Bullish analysts expect NOTE to convert its strong Security & Defense and Industrial order backlog into higher sales and operating profit as supply chain bottlenecks ease and capacity from recent factory expansions is filled.”
Q3 moves this from theory to partial proof. Record SEK 1,057m revenue, Security & Defense sales up very sharply and Industrial back to growth all point to backlog conversion. Underlying operating margin at 9.3% sits close to the 9.5 to 10.5% ambition, so early volume on expanded sites is supporting profitability even while component shortages and relocations still bite.
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all.
NOTE Bear View: Margin Strain And Dependence Unresolved
Bearish thinking argues that NOTE will stay hooked on acquired growth, while rising overheads and component issues keep profitability tight.
“Bearish analysts expect NOTE to remain heavily dependent on acquisitions and face ongoing margin pressure as rising central costs and component constraints limit the benefit of its current order book and recent growth in Security & Defence.”
