Sam Daodu
5 min read
Quick Read
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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $635.5 million net outflow on October 22, the largest single-day outflow since June, erasing the prior day’s $528 million inflow.
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Coinbase data shows the largest leveraged long cluster averaged $81,993, with 64% of positions entered above Bitcoin’s current trading price.
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Glassnode’s True Market Mean places the next major Bitcoin support at $77,600, sitting roughly 3% below current prices, if bulls cannot reclaim $81,500.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has once again fallen below $80,000, briefly hitting $79,973 before buyers stepped in and pushed it back up to $80,287. This decline followed a sharper drop the day before, when Bitcoin sank to $79,220 on Binance, marking weekly lows at $79,107, its weakest point in over a month.
While this drop may seem limited, Bitcoin is down 3.3% for October but still up 26.8% over the last 90 days; the $80,000 threshold matters to its largest holders. Bitcoin last traded at or below $77,600 on September 18, so what caused this dip, and how much further could it fall?
Iran Concerns and ETF Outflows Drive Bitcoin Lower
External factors largely drove the downturn. Reports on October 24 indicated that the U.S. was rapidly evacuating personnel from embassies and military bases across the Middle East, citing intelligence about potential attacks by Iran on Americans. Additionally, comments from the President at a Florida rally on October 23 hinted that tensions with Iran might escalate again after the midterms.
As stock and bond markets close on weekends, investors often sell cryptocurrency to reduce risk, and Bitcoin is typically the most liquid option. Concerns about rising oil prices—West Texas Intermediate crude reached $107.89 a barrel on October 20, a spike of 13.1% in just a week—fueled inflation worries.
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Further compounding the situation, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a staggering net outflow of $635.5 million on October 22, the largest daily outflow since June, erasing the $528.4 million influx from the day before.
Interest rates don’t seem to be the primary driver of this drop. On October 22, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% from 5.31% earlier in the month, and lower yields usually support Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the VIX, a measure of expected stock market volatility, rose from 14.84 to 19.03, indicating growing apprehension among stock investors.
