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Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday, after the bell, with CEO Vlad Tenev expected to discuss AI trading, tokenization and prediction markets.
On Polymarket, traders give Robinhood roughly a two-thirds chance of beating $0.56 in earnings per share. Nearly $600,000 has been traded on Kalshi contracts predicting management’s words.
Analysts expect earnings of $0.56 per share on $1.42 billion in revenue, up from $1.27 billion last year.
Shares closed Monday at $92.84, down 17% in October.
What Kalshi Predicts Robinhood Will Say
“Credit Card” and “Perp / Perpetual” lead at 93%.
Robinhood said in July that its Gold Card had surpassed 1 million holders, generating more than $17 billion in annualized purchase volume.
Robinhood is rolling out perpetual futures, allowing eligible U.S. customers to trade Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) with up to 10 times leverage.
“Robinhood Chain” sits at 92%, while “Tokenization” trades at 87%. Its blockchain launched in July, offering stock-linked tokens that give investors price exposure but no actual shareholder rights.
The strategy sparked a feud with AMC (NYSE:AMC) CEO Adam Aron, who demanded Robinhood stop offering tokens tied to AMC without its consent. Tenev rejected the criticism, arguing companies cannot control financial products referencing their shares.
“Retirement” has an 85% chance of at least three mentions. Robinhood held $34.5 billion in retirement assets in June, up 82% year over year.
“Social” has 82% odds of at least three mentions. Its investing feed lets users share verified trades and trade from posts.
“Agentic” sits at 80% for at least three mentions. Robinhood’s AI trading agents can buy stocks, options and crypto without customers approving individual trades. More than 150,000 customers have opened accounts, but Robinhood warns that AI agents can make costly mistakes, with users bearing the investment risk.
What Kalshi Predicts Robinhood Will Skip
“Bitcoin” sits at 49%. Robinhood’s cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year over year in the second quarter, as customers traded significantly less crypto than a year earlier.
“Kalshi” is at 23%, versus 57% for “SIG / Susquehanna.” Robinhood-backed Rothera began handling prediction-market contracts in June. The independently operated exchange, also backed by Susquehanna International Group, gives Robinhood an alternative to Kalshi.
