Douglas A. McIntyre
4 min read
Quick Read
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Ford’s stock collapsed 38% over five years while the S&P gained 61%, as Wall Street rejects Farley’s 20% unit sales growth target for 2032.
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Ford ranks third in US market share behind Toyota and GM, with falling domestic sales and virtually no foothold in China or the EU.
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Farley’s poor forecasting record, including projecting 100,000 Fathom EV sales in year one, makes his ambitious growth targets hard to take seriously.
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Ford (NASDAQ: F) CEO Jim Farley has been extremely optimistic about the No. 2 US car company’s prospects. Recently, he said Ford’s Fathom EV pickup would sell 100,000 units in its first year of production. That ignored stiffening competition as legacy car companies, beaten back by poor sales, have slowly reentered the US market, which he also abandoned. Add Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to the mix. US EV sales are down 30% in the first nine months of this year. Car sales in the US are generally flat. The average age of a car on the road in the US is 12 years. The average new car price is $51,000.
Farley told many of his workers that his goal was to raise Ford’s unit sales by 20% by 2032. The WSJ reported, “The company’s global strategy turns on Farley’s emphasis on no longer making “boring” vehicles, which for now has left it without the budget-friendly small sedans and SUVs it used to give priority to.” However, other car companies are likely to abandon their “boring” models as well.
Wall St. has had enough of Ford’s sales and forecast, driving the stock down 38% in the last five years. The S&P is up 61% over the same period.
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It is hard to say how Farley will reach his target. His market share in the US ranks third. Ahead are the world’s largest car company, Toyota (NYSE: TM), and Detroit crosstown rival GM (NYSE: GM). And Ford’s sales in the US are falling. It has far from modest sales in China and the EU. It is stuck in America.
