Brenntag SE Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here’s What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Brenntag SE (ETR:BNR) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to €58.66 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit €4.3b. Statutory earnings fell 6.6% short of analyst forecasts, reaching €0.89 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Brenntag’s 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2027 to be €15.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 40% to €3.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €15.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.82 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Brenntag

The consensus price target held steady at €59.00, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Brenntag analyst has a price target of €76.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €48.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Brenntag’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2027 compared to the historical decline of 1.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Brenntag is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Brenntag going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example – Brenntag has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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