Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) was recently removed from the Russell 2000 Dynamic Index, a change that can affect how some index-linked funds treat the stock, as well as how investors think about liquidity and visibility.
See our latest analysis for Accel Entertainment.
The recent index removal comes as Accel Entertainment’s share price sits at $12.42, with a 90-day share price return of 6.61% and a 3-year total shareholder return of 16.07%. This suggests momentum has been building over the medium term even though the 1-year total shareholder return is 2.14%.
If this kind of index reshuffle has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out 19 top founder-led companies
Accel Entertainment has held its ground despite the index exit and sits at $12.42, with mixed recent returns. At this level, does the balance of risk and potential reward still tilt toward buyers, according to the valuation?
Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued
The most followed narrative on Accel Entertainment places fair value at $15.17 versus the current $12.42 share price, framing the recent index removal against a valuation that still prices in growth and execution.
Expansion into new and developing markets, such as Nebraska, Georgia, Louisiana, and continued optimization in Nevada, positions Accel to capture incremental revenue growth as broader legalization and acceptance of gaming increases the total addressable market for distributed VGTs. This ongoing geographic diversification supports a sustained top-line revenue growth trajectory.
Want to see what kind of revenue path and profit uplift underpin that fair value for Accel Entertainment? The narrative leans on gradual top line growth, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple that is still below many hospitality peers. Curious which combination of growth rates, profitability targets, and discount rate assumptions make $15.17 stack up against today’s $12.42?
Result: Fair Value of $15.17 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, that upside narrative for Accel Entertainment still leans heavily on Illinois, and any tougher state rules or weaker new market returns could quickly challenge those assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Accel Entertainment narrative.
Next Steps
If the Accel Entertainment story so far feels finely balanced between promise and concern, it may be useful to review the same data yourself, including the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
