David Moadel
5 min read
Quick Read
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AMC surged 83% and Cinemark 68% YTD, but AMC’s massive debt load and negative stockholders’ equity keep the bull case fragile.
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Theater stocks crushed the S&P 500’s 12% gain, signaling the market is pricing in a real post-pandemic attendance recovery.
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AMC’s $3.97B refinancing pushes debt into the next decade, lowering break-even box office needs but leaving a large debt pile intact.
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Movie theater stocks have become one of the standout trades of the year, with AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) shares leading the group. AMC shares are up 83% year to date (YTD) to $2.86, the largest gain among the biggest U.S. theater-linked names.
Also, Cinemark Holdings (NYSE:CNK) shares are up 68% YTD to $38.72. At the same time, IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) shares are up 38% YTD to $51.11, trailing both theater circuits.
As the largest U.S. theater circuit, AMC carries the heaviest debt load in the group. Cinemark runs a smaller and less leveraged circuit, while IMAX licenses its projection systems to theater owners and takes a share of box office receipts.
Refinancing Pushes AMC Debt Into the Next Decade
In early October, AMC completed a refinancing that moved almost all of its remaining debt maturities into the next decade. Earlier in the year, the company refinanced debt, converted exchangeable notes into equity and raised fresh equity capital.
Management has stated that lower leverage is expected to trigger reduced interest rates on most of its debt. AMC’s lower interest expense, as its chief executive has noted, also reduces the box office level the chain needs to break even.
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AMC declared it expects this year to be the strongest year for theatrical exhibition since the pandemic. It cited a film slate that includes Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday.