SpaceX got into the Nasdaq-100 faster than any company in history. Then its stock fell 15% in its first week there.
Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) could be next. The AI lab filed its IPO prospectus Monday and applied to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. At the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation reportedly under discussion, it would clear the bar for the index’s new fast lane with room to spare.
That would put Anthropic in front of a buyer that can’t say no.
How the fast lane works
Nasdaq’s “fast entry” rule took effect May 1. A newly listed company that ranks among the 40 biggest in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) by market value can join after 15 trading days. Under the usual rules, it would wait at least three full calendar months.
Once a stock is in, index funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), have to buy it, whatever the price.
Anthropic’s unusual share structure shouldn’t get in the way. SpaceX gives insiders 10 votes per share and still got in.
What happened to SpaceX
SpaceX (SPCX) joined the index July 7, 15 trading days after its debut. JPMorgan estimated index funds would need to buy about $4.3 billion of the stock.
The buying didn’t hold it up. SpaceX closed below its $150 first-day opening price for the first time on its first day in the index, and it fell about 15% over its first six sessions there. By Aug. 5, it was down about 28% from that opening price. Through Friday’s close, it was still about 2% below it.
One stock isn’t a rule. Traders who bought ahead of the index funds may simply have sold to them once the buying started.
The float could decide it
What could make Anthropic different is how many of its shares actually trade. The prospectus leaves the offering size blank. And holders of substantially all its existing stock have agreed not to sell for up to 180 days, or up to a year for the co-founders and biggest holders, though the lead banks can let them out early.
A small pool of tradable shares, known as the float, means index funds could end up chasing scarce stock.
The next test is the offering size, which should show up in an amended filing. A small float would make forced buying a bigger force in the stock. A large one would dull it. With the roadshow reportedly starting the week of Nov. 9, fast entry could come as soon as December.
Internal AI tools helped analyze interview transcripts, research, and draft this post. Humans reviewed, edited, and fact-checked this post before publication.
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
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