Mitch Lawler
4 min read
Applied Aerospace & Defense has seen its fair value estimate reduced from US$22.88 to US$20.88, a cut of about US$2.00 per share. This shift aligns with recent analyst debates, with some focusing on long term exposure to space and defense platforms, while others highlight execution risk, guidance resets, and program timing. As you read on, you will see how these moving price targets fit into the broader narrative and what to watch as the story evolves.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
š Bullish Takeaways
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Several firms, including Guggenheim, Stifel, RBC Capital and Jefferies, continue to rate Applied Aerospace & Defense positively even after revising price targets. This signals ongoing interest in the story rather than a broad reset on the company.
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RBC Capital cites increased confidence in the 2026 to 2028 revenue outlook and highlights Applied Aerospace & Defense as well positioned within the defense industrial base, pointing to longer term exposure to key programs.
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Jefferies references a US$1.1b backlog as support for revenue visibility into the 2026 outlook, with its price target framework tied to EBITDA multiples rather than short term sentiment.
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Morgan Stanley characterizes the 2026 guidance reset as linked to timing delays and ramp costs rather than end market demand, and is watching for gross margin to move back toward a high 20s target.
š» Bearish Takeaways
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Guggenheim cut its price target on Applied Aerospace & Defense from US$30 to US$15 after what it called a second straight quarter of disappointment. The firm pointed to lower 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance and issues around timing, product shortages and elevated spending.
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RBC Capital lowered its target from US$21 to US$15 following mixed Q3 results and reduced 2026 guidance, citing revenue timing and higher costs as key watchpoints for investors focused on execution and profitability.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We’ve flagged 2 risks for Applied Aerospace & Defense. See which could impact your investment.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Applied Aerospace & Defense
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Fair value has been reduced from US$22.88 to US$20.88, a cut of about US$2.00 per share.
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Revenue growth has been revised from 19.18% to 16.58% in the updated model.
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The net profit margin assumption has shifted slightly from 11.48% to 11.44%.
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The future P/E multiple has moved from 55.03x to 49.06x.
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The discount rate has risen from 8.42% to 8.64%.
